Spingsteen album a canary in the coal mine?

[cjboog]

Now that U2 will be on Letterman all week, perhaps this will jump start the first (or, perhaps second) week of sales.

I would think this would mainly boost the first week because they will be on every weekday of that first week.

I am now officially upping my first week prediction from 450k to 550k, although I'd love MORE

Another big question mark is going to be the reviews which apparently should start trickling in on Monday...

 

[doctorwho]

I will say that there is some seriousness to this thread.

The U2 name will give it a decent, if not good, first week. I'm not sure if the album will hit 500K. After all, "Pop" only had 350K, and this wasn't in the era of illegal downloads. ATYCLB had "Beautiful Day" and it got to 428K. So not sure if NLOTH will push it up to 500K.

Also, I saw that Eminem's new single had over 418K downloads its first week! If you thought Clarkson was bad, look at Eminem! I wonder if Perez Hilton will mock Clarkson seeing how her single sold "nothing" compared to Eminem.

My point is that if Eminem, who has also been gone a while, can generate 418K downloads in one week, clearly the kids of the world don't consider U2 "hip". If this were 1988, I'm sure "Desire" would have sold boatloads too (and it was certified as GOLD anyway). But GOYB didn't do much. Makes me wonder if U2's newest might see some soft sales, unless a second or third single really catch on. The fan base will be enough for week 1, but after that?

 

[MMP]

I will say that there is some seriousness to this thread.

The U2 name will give it a decent, if not good, first week. I'm not sure if the album will hit 500K. After all, "Pop" only had 350K, and this wasn't in the era of illegal downloads. ATYCLB had "Beautiful Day" and it got to 428K. So not sure if NLOTH will push it up to 500K.

Also, I saw that Eminem's new single had over 418K downloads its first week! If you thought Clarkson was bad, look at Eminem! I wonder if Perez Hilton will mock Clarkson seeing how her single sold "nothing" compared to Eminem.

My point is that if Eminem, who has also been gone a while, can generate 418K downloads in one week, clearly the kids of the world don't consider U2 "hip". If this were 1988, I'm sure "Desire" would have sold boatloads too (and it was certified as GOLD anyway). But GOYB didn't do much. Makes me wonder if U2's newest might see some soft sales, unless a second or third single really catch on. The fan base will be enough for week 1, but after that?

Exactly.
I'm betting on 400K... with luck.

 

[Native_Son]

600k minimum

ive only heard the eminem song once, but thought it was total sh*te! and i was a fan of his Encore singles. HTDAAB vs Encore was close. but i thought now Eminem wasnt as popular as he once was and expected NLOTH to easily beat Em this time round, (i think it will in long term total sales tho)

 

[MMP]

I don't think so... Crack a Bottle is a decent song. And like doctorwho said, it sold 418K in ONE week. That's pretty amazing. Maybe in long term, but in no way U2 will sell more than Eminem in the first week. I'm expecting something around 900K for Eminem's first week. Unfortunately, that's how things will go, no matter how amazing NLOTH is. (And it sure is amazing. U2's third best.)

 

[cjboog]

I don't think so... Crack a Bottle is a decent song. And like doctorwho said, it sold 418K in ONE week. That's pretty amazing. Maybe in long term, but in no way U2 will sell more than Eminem in the first week. I'm expecting something around 900K for Eminem's first week. Unfortunately, that's how things will go, no matter how amazing NLOTH is. (And it sure is amazing. U2's third best.)

Personally I think Crack A Bottle is one of the most horrendous pieces of sh*t I've heard in several years...but it did sell like crazy.

It could be that the song doesn't hang around on radio for very long so the album has weak legs.

Probably no doubt that Eminem will outsell U2 in the first week, but the legs depend on word of mouth and how good the music is I think. 5 star reviews from Rolling Stone don't hurt

 

[cjboog]

Working On A Dream is at 401,000 in the US now after 3 weeks fyi

Dropped 2-6 with 65,000 last week.

 

[MMP]

It could be that the song doesn't hang around on radio for very long so the album has weak legs.

Probably no doubt that Eminem will outsell U2 in the first week, but the legs depend on word of mouth and how good the music is I think. 5 star reviews from Rolling Stone don't hurt

Yeah, that's true.
But I think that this album might have strong legs because of the tour and, like you said, the critics. If RS is just the first of the big places that will praise this I can see it even going 3 platinum in the U.S. And that's it, cause no matter how great these songs are, and they are , I don't think any of them has radio potential.

 

[KUEFC09U2]

So what are people saying its going to be a failure? because thats what it sounds like from this thread.

 

[cjboog]

So what are people saying its going to be a failure? because thats what it sounds like from this thread.

Uhhhh........no.

We are speculating on whether or not forces like the bad economy might impact album sales.

 

[doctorwho]

So what are people saying its going to be a failure? because thats what it sounds like from this thread.

No, we are just being more realistic.

In 2000 and 2001, I wanted ATYCLB to become a big hit. After "Pop's" softer sales, U2 was in new territory. If their next album didn't break out, it meant that U2 may have just transitioned to one of those bands where their older stuff was great, but that the overall public didn't care about them any more, other than the die-hards. I didn't see U2 in that way yet, and fortunately, neither did the public.

After the wild success of ATYCLB (and in the illegal download era), I hoped HTDAAB would follow-up as a hit to show that U2 had sustaining power. It occurred. U2 have proven they can sell Multi-Platinum albums in the U.S. in multiple decades.

With NLOTH, the pressure is off. U2 proved themselves many times. Now they were able to write something just for the enjoyment of writing. No real goal to have an album out, unless they wanted one. No real goal to create that "great hit song", unless they wanted. It was music in its purest form.

Trouble is, as excellent as the album is, that type of music doesn't always sell well. I recall early reviews of JT where it wasn't predicted to be a huge hit. It was believed that the album wasn't that accessible. Clearly that was proven wrong. But will NLOTH be the same, or will we see softer sales?

At this point, unless a song just breaks out, I will be happy to see NLOTH reach Double Platinum. It may see "Zooropa" like sales. I am hoping it won't stop at "Pop" levels. While "Pop" still sold about 1.5M copies in the U.S., I always felt that was light. But perhaps deserved for that album. NLOTH deserves more.

However, given what Springsteen is seeing, and this after a Super Bowl performance, and given what Eminem can do in one week, my guess is that NLOTH may be between "Pop" and "Zooropa" overall (again, unless a song just takes off). U2's age is playing a role.

Still, one never knows - if U2 relied on "The Fly" for too long, AB may have suffered. But they quickly released "Mysterious Ways" followed by "One" and that kept the album going strong for months and months. If GOYB is like "The Fly", U2 now need to get a second single out ASAP, otherwise, a "Pop" scenario could reoccur. Release a second single soon, like an edit of "Magnificent", and the public may lap it up. They won't outsell Eminem, but it could keep NLOTH going for a while. Follow up with a third single (either "Stand Up" or "Crazy") and again, this could keep the public interested. U2 are one of those bands that do not need a Top 10 hit to get big album sales. "Stuck in a Moment" didn't crack the Top 40, but it gave ATYCLB a big sales boost. So follow-up singles are needed - I just fear that U2 love GOYB too much and may be too slow to get single #2 out.

But still, is Platinum that bad? There have been Madonna albums that haven't reached that status!

 

[zwervers2]

News has just come out from Billboard that Bruce Springsteen's new album, Working On A Dream, has debuted at #1 in the US with sales of 224,000 copies.

Springsteen Has 'Dream' Debut Atop Album Chart

His last album, Magic, debuted with 335,000 copies in its first week of US release. I find it somewhat alarming that despite all of the media coverage from the Superbowl performance and the Obama inauguration concert, Dream still didn't even come close to the first week sales of ifs predecessor.

Do you think this could be a sign of things to come for NLOTH? Perhaps it will not be able to match Bomb's sales no matter how good it is...

People told me I was crazy when I said that NLOTH would match the salesfigures of POP and not their newer material. No matter how good the album was

We will see

 

[doctorwho]

People told me I was crazy when I said that NLOTH would match the salesfigures of POP and not their newer material. No matter how good the album was

We will see

Who said that to you? I don't even recall everyone's prediction.

I recall myself stating that it really depends on the first single and promotion. I like GOYB, but clearly it's not catching on. Perhaps some feel it's too similar to "Vertigo". Perhaps some don't get its message (or if they do, they don't care about it). Perhaps some just don't like it. Regardless, this isn't a huge first single for U2. And that will have an effect on sales.

However...

The album has leaked (intentionally??). One can hear it on MySpace. Videos of U2 performing other NLOTH songs are popping up. Radio is playing other NLOTH songs, if not the entire album. U2 have booked time on a variety of TV shows on both sides of the Atlantic.

So while GOYB got word out about new U2, U2 are now doing their job in getting the word out about other songs - something they didn't really do that well for "Pop" (IMO).

If U2 get that second single out soon, I feel the album will do well.

As for first week's sales - I still feel the U2 name will give the album a good boost. After that, it's debatable. If a second and/or third single catch on, NLOTH may see big numbers. If not, then, perhaps NLOTH will float around the sales of "Pop" - but without the backlash.

 

[Irishteen]

I agree with Doctor Who, it all depends on how the second and third singles perform

 

[BigMacPhisto]

I agree with Doctor Who, it all depends on how the second and third singles perform

Does anyone here think they can break the Hot 100 when Elevation/Walk On/City Of Blinding Lights/All Because Of You failed to do so? Really, their best hope is to release what will work well on Triple A radio...Magnificent/Crazy/Breathe...that should be the trifecta and I think they'll do well with the format. But these songs will be lucky to earn a spin or two on Rock/Modern Rock stations.

 

[doctorwho]

I don't have access to SoundScan numbers, but here are Springsteen's HITS Daily Double numbers for the past 5 weeks (not counting this week, where NLOTH will appear) for "Working on a Dream":

Week 1: 211,901
Week 2: 100,135; -53%
Week 3: 63,311; -37%
Week 4: 27,911; -56%
Week 5: 22,547: -19%

Total sales: 309,808

If U2's NLOTH were to follow the exact same pattern and assuming 430K for the first week:

Week 1: 430,000
Week 2: 202,100; -53%
Week 3: 127,323; -37%
Week 4: 56,022; -56%
Week 5: 45,378: -19%

Total Sales: 860.8K

Now, this isn't to say what will happen. Perhaps the second single will kick in during this time fram, or U2 will continue doing appearances which will keep sales strong (i.e., no big 50% drops). But if the pattern is followed exactly, we may see 1M sold within the first 8-9 weeks. Hopefully by then, a second single and maybe a tour will give it a boost. If nothing else, the album should still be Platinum.

 

[Clean187]

Hey, did anybody ever find the sales of AC/DC's album a little fishy?

"Black Ice" did 750K in it's first week.

"NLOTH" is going to do 450K tops it's first week.

AC/DC's top opening week before Black Ice was something like 225K. It's not like they had a huge hit single or an IPOD ad or anything like that.

You don't think it had anything to do with Wal-Mart, do you ?

Nah, because Wal-Mart wouldn't do anything like that

 

[cjboog]

I don't have access to SoundScan numbers, but here are Springsteen's HITS Daily Double numbers for the past 5 weeks (not counting this week, where NLOTH will appear) for "Working on a Dream":

Week 1: 211,901
Week 2: 100,135; -53%
Week 3: 63,311; -37%
Week 4: 27,911; -56%
Week 5: 22,547: -19%

Total sales: 309,808

If U2's NLOTH were to follow the exact same pattern and assuming 430K for the first week:

Week 1: 430,000
Week 2: 202,100; -53%
Week 3: 127,323; -37%
Week 4: 56,022; -56%
Week 5: 45,378: -19%

Total Sales: 860.8K

Now, this isn't to say what will happen. Perhaps the second single will kick in during this time fram, or U2 will continue doing appearances which will keep sales strong (i.e., no big 50% drops). But if the pattern is followed exactly, we may see 1M sold within the first 8-9 weeks. Hopefully by then, a second single and maybe a tour will give it a boost. If nothing else, the album should still be Platinum.

Your math is a little off with Bruce. I think you meant 409k, not 309.

But that'd be pretty unfortunate I think if U2 follows this pattern. Taking 5 weeks to sell what they did in ONE week 4 years ago

I really think Magnificent has a chance to be a bigger hit than GOYB. In the US, you really have to think about the radio formats it could climb on to succeed. Magnificent could dominate Triple A and Adult Contemporary charts while having a shot at cracking into the Rock formats and Hot AC. It seems to me like there are more routes for Magnificent to break into US radio, although Alternative radio was a big surprise success for GOYB that Magnificent probably wouldn't be as strong in.

 

[RPRB]

Your math is a little off with Bruce. I think you meant 409k, not 309.

But that'd be pretty unfortunate I think if U2 follows this pattern. Taking 5 weeks to sell what they did in ONE week 4 years ago

I really think Magnificent has a chance to be a bigger hit than GOYB. In the US, you really have to think about the radio formats it could climb on to succeed. Magnificent could dominate Triple A and Adult Contemporary charts while having a shot at cracking into the Rock formats and Hot AC. It seems to me like there are more routes for Magnificent to break into US radio, although Alternative radio was a big surprise success for GOYB that Magnificent probably wouldn't be as strong in.

Not that it would provide a very large audience but I think Magnificient could possibly be played on Christian radio as well.

 

[doctorwho]

Your math is a little off with Bruce. I think you meant 409k, not 309.

But that'd be pretty unfortunate I think if U2 follows this pattern. Taking 5 weeks to sell what they did in ONE week 4 years ago

I really think Magnificent has a chance to be a bigger hit than GOYB. In the US, you really have to think about the radio formats it could climb on to succeed. Magnificent could dominate Triple A and Adult Contemporary charts while having a shot at cracking into the Rock formats and Hot AC. It seems to me like there are more routes for Magnificent to break into US radio, although Alternative radio was a big surprise success for GOYB that Magnificent probably wouldn't be as strong in.

You're right - my math was way off. LOL! Must have mistyped some numbers. Posting fast right before I leave work causes this. So Springteen's latest is about 426K, or close to GOLD in the U.S. (probably already certified as GOLD).

As for NLOTH, while true that if that pattern is followed exactly, it would be a huge decrease from 2004's HTDAAB.

However, holiday sales can generate 100-200K or more in sales for albums each week. McGuinness stated that sometimes holiday sales can make more in weeks than what an album can sell all year. If U2 really wanted big sales, November was the time to release the album.

Still, a strong album is a strong album. It will sell - just more slowly. So we cannot do a direct comparison of NLOTH to HTDAAB. If anything, we should compare to "Pop".

Looking at my own old thread, I see that "Pop" actually sold 347K copies its first week (not 357K) and about 160K its second week. Its chart run was:

1-2-8-12-14-13-13-15-15-18
20-29-33-42-49-56-68-89-96-101

I believe "Pop" spent a total of 28 weeks on the U.S. BillBoard Top 200 charts. At the end of 1997, SoundScan reported that "Pop" sold a total of 1.3 million copies in the U.S. In January, 2001, SonicNet reported that "Pop" had sold 1.45 million copies in the
U.S.

If NLOTH's goal is to out-perform "Pop", then we need a second single soon. "Staring at the Sun" helped keep "Pop" going in the teens for a few months, until that song started to fade. Other singles did nothing to help boost "Pop", nor did the tour. That was a bit odd, as usually follow-up singles and the tour have helped U2 on other albums (including albums released after "Pop").

 

[cjboog]

However, holiday sales can generate 100-200K or more in sales for albums each week. McGuinness stated that sometimes holiday sales can make more in weeks than what an album can sell all year. If U2 really wanted big sales, November was the time to release the album.

...

If NLOTH's goal is to out-perform "Pop", then we need a second single soon.

Yah good point about the time of year. There really are a l lot of factors working against NLOTH (time of year, age of band, lack of radio play, horrible economy, etc.).

Do you think if we keep on saying how badly we need a second single right now over and over and over a couple hundred times that Paul McGuiness is bound to stop in here at least once and read it? Let, keep it up just in case...

Here goes...


....
....

Oh hey, doctorwho. Boots just isn't getting the job done right now, wouldn't it be awesome for NLOTH's sales legs if Magnificent was released like...yesterday? What do you think?

 

[doctorwho]

Oh hey, doctorwho. Boots just isn't getting the job done right now, wouldn't it be awesome for NLOTH's sales legs if Magnificent was released like...yesterday? What do you think?

That is an excellent point cjboog!

If U2 will release a new single, like, uh, NOW (or yesterday), it might help the album.

Brilliant post! Keep up the great work.




P.S. I do know that people associated with the band do read these fan sites. I personally heard once from someone "in the know" that some of the comments I once made were stated as being really good ideas - and they were implemented on the following tour. So perhaps, just perhaps, my repetitive comments will finally sink in. Second single! Second single! Second single!

 

[cjboog]

That is an excellent point cjboog!

If U2 will release a new single, like, uh, NOW (or yesterday), it might help the album.

Brilliant post! Keep up the great work.




P.S. I do know that people associated with the band do read these fan sites. I personally heard once from someone "in the know" that some of the comments I once made were stated as being really good ideas - and they were implemented on the following tour. So perhaps, just perhaps, my repetitive comments will finally sink in. Second single! Second single! Second single!

It worked doctorwho!

Looks like Magnificent is being delivered to radio!

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