Songs of Experience - Let The Chart Speculation Begin - U2 Feedback

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Old 09-25-2017, 12:36 PM   #1
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Songs of Experience - Let The Chart Speculation Begin

I posted this on the TBT thread, but I think it would be more appropriate to open a new thread for the actual album:

Looking forward to the actual album itself. I would think on Dec. 1st that they should be able to score a number 1 or number 2 spot. Taylor Swifts album will have been out for 3 weeks and will probably have dropped off quite significantly.

Foo Fighters, which I would say probably garner about the same backing as U2 commercially at this point (aside from touring). Just went to number one with 127,000 units.

Hopefully on that October 25th date, the band gets the album up for pre-order on iTunes, Amazon, etc...

Taking the new streaming/views rules into consideration, I was thinking they most likely would get:

around 3,000 units from TBT lyric video views
around 1,500 units from the official video (depending on when that is released)
and around 5,000 or so from spotify streams
then some more from other streaming sources...

So maybe 10 to 12 thousand equivalent units to add to whatever actual album sales they get that first week.

Not sure what to expect from first week actual sales. But I would think somewhere in the 100,000 to 150k range.
Anyone have any more insight into that sort of thing??

Still think they should just do the ticket sales tie in thing like so many other artists do now. It got LCD soundsystem to number one this time around.
Would probably put U2 at the top for a few weeks.


I know this is a little early as we don't have all the facts. But as it stands, there are no albums of note being released the couple of weeks before U2, and U2 is the only one listed on December 1.
I think this gives them a good shot.

I looked back at other artist's number one numbers for 2017

Ed Sheeran - 451k
The Weeknd - 348k
Harry Styles - 230k
The Chainsmokers - 221k (used ticket for album promotion)
Katy Perry - 180k (used ticket for album promotion)
Lana Del Rey - 107k
Arcade Fire - 100k (used ticket for album promotion)
LCD Soundsystem - 85k (used ticket for album promotion)

My guess as of today,

U2 hits the number 1 spot with 140k in sales.
If they use the ticket for album promo - 170k (i really have no idea on this, could be much higher, no experience on these figures...)

They will be knocked off by week 2 by Fall Out Boy, but will stay in the top 5 or 6.
If they use the ticket promo, they will stay in the top 3.

That's all I've got for now. What do you guys think?
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Old 09-25-2017, 02:19 PM   #2
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Hmmm...

ok, I'm still sticking with my numbers for now, but just for some other numbers to think about when making your guess, i looked at some 2016 number ones. I didn't include any of the big names like Jay-Z or Beyonce or Adele.

Panic at the Disco - 190K
Blink 182 - 186k
Sean Mendes - 145k
Bon Jovi - 129K - Followed by the largest second week drop in Billoard history down to number 45
Tribe called Quest - 135k
Metallica - 291k

Now I know Metallica is a stronger selling album band than U2 for the most part. But that's a big number. BUT they also used the ticket for album promotion thing. I'm guessing this highly contributed to that number.
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Old 09-27-2017, 02:15 PM   #3
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There is always a pent-up demand for U2. There are oceans of older fans who love an actual CD to hold (as well as vinyl). And it's holiday time. Therefore, even with today's numbers in mind, I could see a bigger first week (especially after their JT tour) and see the number sky-rocket past 200,000 and maybe even 300,000 in sales. I'd be a bit disappointed if it were only 140K.
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Old 09-27-2017, 02:24 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doctorwho View Post
There is always a pent-up demand for U2. There are oceans of older fans who love an actual CD to hold (as well as vinyl). And it's holiday time. Therefore, even with today's numbers in mind, I could see a bigger first week (especially after their JT tour) and see the number sky-rocket past 200,000 and maybe even 300,000 in sales. I'd be a bit disappointed if it were only 140K.
Whoa! Doc! Long time no see.
I am trying to be very conservative, and to be honest, i just am not versed well enough in the all of the new rules and regs that come with todays chart numbers.
I mean, Metallica got 291k. And i would say that they would also have an older base that would get physical copies as well. They also employed the ticket for album promo, so not sure how many that stacks on top of the actual sales number. Katy Perry only got 180k, which seems crazy low to me.

The Killers will hit number 1 with 110k this next week. So I am sort of guessing U2 will fall somewhere in between Metallica and Killers.
200k I think would be a very good showing, and the high end of what I would guess.

Good to see you again!
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Old 09-27-2017, 04:18 PM   #5
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Thanks! Not a lot to post about lately - but thought I'd see what's going on in here. Happy to see lots of discussion.

I keep recalling how Adele still sold 1M in a week with her last album! So bigger numbers can happen. Not saying U2 will come anywhere near that, but after a successful tour, a catchy song, and more traditional release, U2 could see some success. Heck, SOI still hit #10 on the U.S. chart after it was given away for free! And it hit #1 in other parts of the world (again, despite being free). It appears people like having the physical copy.
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Old 09-27-2017, 04:24 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doctorwho View Post
Thanks! Not a lot to post about lately - but thought I'd see what's going on in here. Happy to see lots of discussion.

I keep recalling how Adele still sold 1M in a week with her last album! So bigger numbers can happen. Not saying U2 will come anywhere near that, but after a successful tour, a catchy song, and more traditional release, U2 could see some success. Heck, SOI still hit #10 on the U.S. chart after it was given away for free! And it hit #1 in other parts of the world (again, despite being free). It appears people like having the physical copy.
Glad to have you hop in.
I think now its about streaming and views that now count as "equivilent" sales. 1500 views = 1 album sale. So when Swift gets 600,000,000 views, she already has 400,000 albums banked.
Since U2 and other older bands don't get a lot of views and streams (relatively) it puts them at a huge disadvantage.
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Old 09-27-2017, 10:41 PM   #7
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Brand New hit number one in the US a month ago with 55k sales
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:10 AM   #8
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Brand New hit number one in the US a month ago with 55k sales
Yep. Unheard of just 6 or 7 years ago. The bar for number 1 will definitely be higher on December 1 as holiday sales will bring everything up. I think 200k will be a stretch for U2 unless they do a ticket tie in. U2 won't rack up a ton from streaming and views.

Which brings me to the very puzzling low numbers for Katy Perry
She debuted with 180k. She used a ticket for album tie in. But she had already wracked up a couple hundred million Youtube views and streams, which i thought would have counted for a ton of albums being added to her first week numbers.

But now that i think about it...
They must only count streams and views for the actual week that is being tracked, and they don't add up the total amount that has been streamed up to that point... Which is kind of odd.

Does anyone have any insight into this?? This would mean that U2 would receive next to nothing in terms of a sales boost for streaming if they are only counting the actual total from the one week.

And then how are those "sales" from streams reflected?? I guess just added to the total number of sales for certification purposes? Its all a little hard to understand.

So when Katy Perry only gets 180k and Lady Gaga only gets 210k her opening week. I am pretty comfortable with my original guess of 140k for U2, and closer to 200k if they do the ticket tie in.
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:23 AM   #9
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Katy Perry's album also was laughed at by most critics. Metacritic has it as the 6th worst album of the year.
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:29 AM   #10
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The critics have been against her for the past year.

I'm predicting U2 in the Top 5, 100K for SoE.
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:43 AM   #11
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In all fairness, the first couple Taylor Swift songs are pretty horrible. Sure, "critics" are giving her a big pass. Katy Perry's number came up as the one to bash this time around, and she got hammered pretty hard. Gaga also didn't have great reviews of her last one. But they are still huge names with an enormous social media following and streaming/view numbers.

That's why I'm looking more at how bands like The Killers, Foo Fighters, Metallica, etc are performing. They are ranging from 110k to 290k for their first week. Metallica using the ticket thing. So I'm still comfortable with my 140k estimate.

So hard since SOI gave us NO barometer of sales for U2 in the modern chart set up.
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:44 AM   #12
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U2 will hit #1 with sales north of 250k and possibly as high as 400k(assuming a normal promotional cycle of playing some TV shows and events).

The built in fan base is huge and still just as strong as ever. The new single is still growing on radio and as Doc mentioned, is looking like it could be a slow burn success.
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Old 09-28-2017, 11:59 AM   #13
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Another good group to look at would be The Chili Peppers. They opened with 118k for their last one.
Imagine Dragons hit 147k
Panic At the Disco hit 190k
GreenDay only had 90k

Nothing I'm seeing is pushing me to change my guess to anything north of 200k.
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Old 09-28-2017, 02:00 PM   #14
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Quote:
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Glad to have you hop in.
I think now its about streaming and views that now count as "equivilent" sales. 1500 views = 1 album sale. So when Swift gets 600,000,000 views, she already has 400,000 albums banked.
Since U2 and other older bands don't get a lot of views and streams (relatively) it puts them at a huge disadvantage.
I agree streaming and views play a role - but with SOI, the album was given away digitally. So streaming (where it was available a few years ago), probably didn't play as big of a role in charts. I think it was people buying an actual copy. I know I'll still want the CD and vinyl versions of SOE, even if I have it digitally. And I bet older fans think similarly. Something about having a tangible copy of music that makes it enjoyable for many.

I am curious what will happen in today's world. If YTBT can gain more traction, the numbers might be closer to 200-300K. If the fades quietly, then SOE may only debut with 150K.
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Old 09-28-2017, 02:51 PM   #15
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I agree streaming and views play a role - but with SOI, the album was given away digitally. So streaming (where it was available a few years ago), probably didn't play as big of a role in charts. I think it was people buying an actual copy. I know I'll still want the CD and vinyl versions of SOE, even if I have it digitally. And I bet older fans think similarly. Something about having a tangible copy of music that makes it enjoyable for many.

I am curious what will happen in today's world. If YTBT can gain more traction, the numbers might be closer to 200-300K. If the fades quietly, then SOE may only debut with 150K.
Also, SOI came out Sept of 2014, and Billboard only started including streaming as part of the tally beginning in December of 2014, and probably in a much more limited way than it is gathered today.

There's always the talk of a second single as well. Would think it would almost be a given, seeing as that we are looking at 2 more months before the album...

I always think about what could have been in regards to SOI. I think if they had partnered with Apple and instead of the auto free download. They had a pop up come up on your phone when you opened iTunes - one time only - Get the new U2 album now for $4.99 [accept] or [decline]. (I believe 4.99 is the lowest price that counts as an album purchase) Either choice - you would never get another pop up asking about it.
They probably would have gotten about 5 to 10 million downloads right there that day/week. Becoming the band that had the largest one day/week total of any band in history. And you could guarantee that it would have been copied by tons of artists after that.
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