Songs of Experience - Let The Chart Speculation Begin

[CosmoKramer]

The more I think about it, the “bundling” idea is brilliant if for no other reason than the artist telling you “thanks for buying a ticket to see me play the hits you love. Here is a CD of the new songs we will be playing so get to know them”. One of the bigger reasons is for chart stature but why shouldn’t the more prominent live acts capitalize on their ability to sell tickets. If people truly don’t care about their new stuff, they won’t redeem it.

As U2 fans, we know they are going to play at minimum half the album, so it makes sense to get to know the songs.

Ax can back that up too that they will play majority new songs, in fact the only continent where U2 don’t play the new songs in concert is Australia...(too soon?)

 

[kiwilad]

Ax can back that up too that they will play majority new songs, in fact the only continent where U2 don’t play the new songs in concert is Australia...(too soon?)

Although we did get the most Zooropa-rich shows down under

 

[Native_Son]

The more I think about it, the “bundling” idea is brilliant if for no other reason than the artist telling you “thanks for buying a ticket to see me play the hits you love. Here is a CD of the new songs we will be playing so get to know them”. One of the bigger reasons is for chart stature but why shouldn’t the more prominent live acts capitalize on their ability to sell tickets. If people truly don’t care about their new stuff, they won’t redeem it.

As U2 fans, we know they are going to play at minimum half the album, so it makes sense to get to know the songs.

Ax can back that up too that they will play majority new songs, in fact the only continent where U2 don’t play the new songs in concert is Australia...(too soon?)

I assume that it is a 'free' download rather than a physical CD. In any event, it makes sense, the people attending the shows would more than likely buy the CD anyway and helps keep 'sales' high. The 360 Tour told over 7m tickets but the corresponding album NLOTH only sold 4.5m copies - most the attendees probably had 'aquired' the album from one place or another so this new bundling method is sort of a way of recording the sales and creating a bit of a truer reflection.

 

[Native_Son]

But remember, they won't get near that number of people actually getting the album. 25 dates would be around 400-425k. I would think only about half those albums get redeemed. And not sure if the redemtion comes with a deadline, but people may not redeem the offer for a few weeks or more.

I am hoping it is a bit staggered. Would be cool to see them get 375k the first week with the first round of tickets and album sales, and then maybe stay at number 1 the next week with 100k or more.

So many artists drop 80 to 90% or more on the second week. Would be cool to see them stick a bit.

I would expect it would be more like a third getting redeemed. Most people buying tickets wouldnt be going to a show alone and it is likely that only one in their party would redeem the album and then simply share with the others electronically or who knows, even burning them CD's maybe!

Will still help increase sales though, but I would still expect a huge drop in the second week... its the same for all artists in this day and age

 

[patternshirt170]

SOI physical ie. the CD, CDx2 and vinyl sales were around 28k in October 2014 and it got to #9 US, so we can assume that they have an absolute 'buy anything they do' bottom hardcore of around 30,000 in the US.

 

[womanfish]

I would expect it would be more like a third getting redeemed. Most people buying tickets wouldnt be going to a show alone and it is likely that only one in their party would redeem the album and then simply share with the others electronically or who knows, even burning them CD's maybe!

Will still help increase sales though, but I would still expect a huge drop in the second week... its the same for all artists in this day and age

Yep, you've got several factors. Big fans have already purchased the album and won't redeem offer. Couples going together may redeem 1, not 2. Some people will delete the email, some won't care to get it, some will forget, the list goes on. So yeah, 1/3rd is probably pretty realistic.
So if they could get an extra 150k tacked onto their first week sales, then maybe 50k the next week if the tickets are staggered, that would be huge.

So with the ticket album bundle - I'm guessing they hit right around 285-305k the first week and are in a down to the wire fight to number one with Stapleton.

 

[mikeuk]

Streaming

so does 'free' streaming e.g. Spotify with adverts, count towards chart positions ? if so then put on repeat when we go to bed/work - plays will quickly rack up

 

[mikeuk]

Yep, you've got several factors. Big fans have already purchased the album and won't redeem offer. Couples going together may redeem 1, not 2. Some people will delete the email, some won't care to get it, some will forget, the list goes on. So yeah, 1/3rd is probably pretty realistic.
So if they could get an extra 150k tacked onto their first week sales, then maybe 50k the next week if the tickets are staggered, that would be huge.

So with the ticket album bundle - I'm guessing they hit right around 285-305k the first week and are in a down to the wire fight to number one with Stapleton.

so you can choose physical or digital version - why wouldn't U2 fans choose this even if they give as a present and/or having both formats ? I think the actuals here will be pretty close to ticket sales

 

[Axver]

As U2 fans, we know they are going to play at minimum half the album, so it makes sense to get to know the songs.

Ax can back that up too that they will play majority new songs, in fact the only continent where U2 don’t play the new songs in concert is Australia...(too soon?)

Yep. The weakest representation for a new album is NLOTH. Four of eleven songs haven't been played live (Stand Up Comedy, Fez, White As Snow, Cedars). No other album has more than three unplayed (War, UF).

To be honest, with 13 songs on SOE and such a large back catalogue, I won't be surprised if five or six go unplayed. But that still means we should expect over half of the album live, and because it's an arena tour that should help increase the number.

Australia will get Stuck in a Moment x2.

 

[womanfish]

ok, as we inch closer, i think it helps to look at other acts and their sales numbers to get an idea of how U2 will fare.

And what i see is pretty scary. So Kenny Chesney hit the top spot with around 220k. This is huge, but he did the ticket bundle. And best guess is he got a very large amount from that.
Kelly Clarkson who has a radio hit, and is well known, hit number 2 with with around 80k, obviously no ticket bundle.

The really shocking one was Weezer. They have a popular song on Alternative radio, a known name, and they debuted at number 23! with about 20k in sales. They were at about number six in pure sales, but once streaming gets added in, they ended up way below that. It just shows that rock bands, especially older ones, just can't compete in the same way with streaming in the mix.

Looking ahead, Sam Smith - a HUGE name right now is only looking at hitting around 220k, and Maroon 5, that had about 5 top ten pop hits on their last album are looking to debut with around 110k in sales...

That gives me some major pause on my guess for U2.

So the good news - U2 is doing the ticket promo. The bad news, they are an older band with practically no streaming power.

It's really going to come down to how successful their ticket promotion ends up being. Its so hard to predict. Could mean 80k more in sales, could be 200k more. I just don't know... But it will be the difference between the number 1 and number 2 spot.

 

[womanfish]

To get an idea of how many people will redeem their album from their ticket purchase, we can look at how Chesney did.

He has almost 1 million tickets for sale. And the best guess that Billboard gives for the redemption is about 175-185k.
That means a little under 20%

Lets say U2 does really well and gets 25% redemption on theirs. This would mean a boost of around 100k. Tack on another 125 to 150k in regular sales and they probably are still looking at a number 2 debut. sigh....

 

[Native_Son]

To get an idea of how many people will redeem their album from their ticket purchase, we can look at how Chesney did.

He has almost 1 million tickets for sale. And the best guess that Billboard gives for the redemption is about 175-185k.
That means a little under 20%

Lets say U2 does really well and gets 25% redemption on theirs. This would mean a boost of around 100k. Tack on another 125 to 150k in regular sales and they probably are still looking at a number 2 debut. sigh....

Should have opted for a stadium tour not little arenas.

 

[Native_Son]

ok, as we inch closer, i think it helps to look at other acts and their sales numbers to get an idea of how U2 will fare.

And what i see is pretty scary. So Kenny Chesney hit the top spot with around 220k. This is huge, but he did the ticket bundle. And best guess is he got a very large amount from that.
Kelly Clarkson who has a radio hit, and is well known, hit number 2 with with around 80k, obviously no ticket bundle.

The really shocking one was Weezer. They have a popular song on Alternative radio, a known name, and they debuted at number 23! with about 20k in sales. They were at about number six in pure sales, but once streaming gets added in, they ended up way below that. It just shows that rock bands, especially older ones, just can't compete in the same way with streaming in the mix.

Looking ahead, Sam Smith - a HUGE name right now is only looking at hitting around 220k, and Maroon 5, that had about 5 top ten pop hits on their last album are looking to debut with around 110k in sales...

That gives me some major pause on my guess for U2.

So the good news - U2 is doing the ticket promo. The bad news, they are an older band with practically no streaming power.

It's really going to come down to how successful their ticket promotion ends up being. Its so hard to predict. Could mean 80k more in sales, could be 200k more. I just don't know... But it will be the difference between the number 1 and number 2 spot.

This streaming nonsense is a farce. i dont care how popular an artists radio hit is, they could be a one-hit-wonder, no one buys their album yet they still end up with a #1 album despite next to no sales, whereas the #1 selling album could end up houside the top 10. This makes a mockery of the entire chart... it is an album chart, singles are for the singles charts.

 

[womanfish]

Should have opted for a stadium tour not little arenas.

I think they are wise to arenas. Stadium isn't in the cards after just done the JT tour.

Now the caveat here is, there will be shows added. But we don't know when the tickets for the added shows will go on sale. They could go on sale before that first week of album sales wraps up and maybe they get another 20 or 30k to add on there. But who knows.
It will probably keep them in the top 5 or 10 the following week or two which is good anyway.

 

[visocchi]

Well, as of last week, the following were the top selling 200 albums in the United States. This includes ONLY actual sales of albums PHYSICAL and DIGITAL, none of that streaming, airplay, or single sales stuff mixed in like Billboard does on some of its charts.

First sales figure is for 2017, and the sales figure on the end is total for all years combined as recorded by soundscan.

ALBUM SALES WEEK 43

albums selling over 1,000,000 - this year - 0 / last year - 3
albums selling over 500,000 - this year - 7 / last year - 9
albums selling over 250,000 - this year - 25 / last year - 35
albums selling over 100,000 - this year - 106 / last year - 131



Rank - 2017 Sales - TITLE - Artist ( Total Sales )
01 - 900,000 - ÷ - Ed Sheeran ( 900,000 )
02 - 834,000 - DAMN. - Kendrick Lamar ( 834,000 )
03 - 645,000 - MOANA - Soundtrack ( 839,000 )
04 - 630,000 - 24K MAGIC - Bruno Mars ( 1,109,000 )
05 - 558,000 - HARDWIRED...TO SELF-DESTRUCT - Metallica ( 1,075,000 )
06 - 548,000 - FROM A ROOM: VOLUME 1 - Chris Stapleton ( 548,000 )
07 - 520,000 - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL.2: AWESOME MIX VOL.2 - Soundtrack ( 520,000 )
08 - 477,000 - TROLLS - Soundtrack ( 779,000 )
09 - 437,000 - BEAUTIFUL TRAUMA - P!nk ( 437,000 )
10 - 381,000 - BEAUTY AND THE BEAST - Soundtrack ( 381,000 )
11 - 367,000 - 4:44 - Jay-Z ( 367,000 )
12 - 358,000 - MORE LIFE - Drake ( 358,000 )
13 - 353,000 - HARRY STYLES - Harry Styles ( 353,000 )
14 - 348,000 - HAMILTON: AN AMERICAN MUSICAL - Original Cast ( 1,337,000 )
15 - 327,000 - TRAVELLER - Chris Stapleton ( 2,098,000 )
16 - 326,000 - LA LA LAND - Soundtrack ( 354,000 )
17 - 308,000 - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: AWESOME MIX VOL. 1 - Soundtrack ( 1,986,000 )
18 - 295,000 - EVOLVE - Imagine Dragons ( 295,000 )
19 - 284,000 - MEMORIES…DO NOT OPEN - Chainsmokers ( 284,000 )
20 - 272,000 - WELCOME HOME - Zac Brown Band ( 272,000 )
21 - 261,000 - EVERYBODY - Logic ( 261,000 )
22 - 260,000 - RIPCORD - Keith Urban ( 672,000 )
23 - 258,000 - STARBOY - The Weeknd ( 631,000 )
24 - 257,000 - WITNESS - Katy Perry ( 257,000 )
25 - 256,000 - SGT PEPPER'S LONELY HEARTS CLUB BAND - Beatles ( 5,055,000 )
26 - 248,000 - NOW 61 - Various ( 248,000 )
27 - 244,000 - LEMONADE - Beyoncé ( 1,799,000 )
28 - 237,000 - SING - Soundtrack ( 281,000 )
29 - 236,000 - ONE MORE LIGHT - Linkin Park ( 236,000 )
30 - 225,000 - 25 - Adele ( 9,397,000 )
31 - 223,000 - BLURRYFACE - Twenty One Pilots ( 1,553,000 )
32 - 215,000 - JOANNE - Lady Gaga ( 586,000 )
33 - 211,000 - HUMANZ - Gorillaz ( 211,000 )
34 - 204,000 - NOW 62 - Various ( 204,000 )
35 - 200,000 - SING IT NOW: SONGS OF FAITH & HOPE - Reba McEntire ( 200,000 )
36 - 197,000 - THE SEARCH FOR EVERYTHING - John Mayer ( 197,000 )
37 - 196,000 - GREATEST HITS - Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers ( 8,661,000 )
38 - 196,000 - THE DEVIL DON'T SLEEP - Brantley Gilbert ( 196,000 )
39 - 177,000 - METALLICA - Metallica ( 16,663,000 )
40 - 176,000 - RATHER YOU THAN ME - Rick Ross ( 176,000 )
41 - 172,000 - FIFTY SHADES DARKER - Soundtrack ( 172,000 )
42 - 169,000 - CONCRETE AND GOLD - Foo Fighters ( 169,000 )
43 - 163,000 - NOW - Shania Twain ( 163,000 )
44 - 158,000 - KANE BROWN - Kane Brown ( 239,000 )
45 - 157,000 - STRENGTH OF A WOMAN - Mary J Blige ( 157,000 )
46 - 155,000 - LIFE CHANGES - Thomas Rhett ( 155,000 )
47 - 154,000 - THE WEIGHT OF THESE WINGS - Miranda Lambert ( 395,000 )
48 - 150,000 - 4 YOUR EYEZ ONLY - J Cole ( 602,000 )
49 - 149,000 - BRETT YOUNG - Brett Young ( 149,000 )
50 - 149,000 - I DECIDED - Big Sean ( 149,000 )
51 - 148,000 - MELODRAMA - Lorde ( 148,000 )
52 - 148,000 - LUST FOR LIFE - Lana Del Rey ( 148,000 )
53 - 146,000 - RAINBOW - Kesha ( 146,000 )
54 - 144,000 - PURPLE RAIN - Prince & the Revolution ( 3,714,000 )
55 - 144,000 - DEATH OF A BACHELOR - Panic At The Disco ( 682,000 )
56 - 143,000 - THE BREAKER - Little Big Town ( 143,000 )
57 - 143,000 - HOPELESS FOUNTAIN KINGDOM - Halsey ( 143,000 )
58 - 140,000 - LEGEND - Bob Marley & the Wailers ( 12,244,000 )
59 - 139,000 - THE LEGEND OF - Johnny Cash ( 3,714,000 )
60 - 136,000 - HEART BREAK - Lady Antebellum ( 136,000 )
61 - 136,000 - THIS ONE'S FOR YOU - Luke Combs ( 136,000 )
62 - 133,000 - THE ULTIMATE HITS - Garth Brooks ( 3,125,000 )
63 - 132,000 - DESCENDANTS 2 - Soundtrack ( 132,000 )
64 - 131,000 - DEAR EVAN HANSEN - Original Cast ( 131,000 )
65 - 130,000 - WONDERFUL WONDERFUL - Killers ( 130,000 )
66 - 130,000 - EVERYTHING NOW - Arcade Fire ( 130,000 )
67 - 128,000 - 2017 GRAMMY NOMINEES - Various ( 128,000 )
68 - 128,000 - FLICKER - Niall Horan ( 128,000 )
69 - 128,000 - THE ULTIMATE COLLECTION - Garth Brooks ( 548,000 )
70 - 125,000 - CULTURE - Migos ( 125,000 )
71 - 124,000 - FUTURE - Future ( 124,000 )
72 - 122,000 - NOW COUNTRY 10 - Various ( 122,000 )
73 - 122,000 - PTX VOL.IV: CLASSICS - Pentatonix ( 122,000 )
74 - 121,000 - WINDY CITY - Alison Krauss ( 121,000 )
75 - 120,000 - SUICIDE SQUAD: THE ALBUM - Soundtrack ( 591,000 )
76 - 120,000 - PRETTY GIRLS LIKE TRAP MUSIC - 2 Chainz ( 120,000 )
77 - 119,000 - ILLUMINATE - Shawn Mendes ( 336,000 )
78 - 118,000 - LIFER - MercyMe ( 118,000 )
79 - 118,000 - IN IT TO WIN IT - Charlie Wilson ( 118,000 )
80 - 118,000 - GREATEST HITS - Journey ( 9,143,000 )
81 - 118,000 - HYBRID THEORY - Linkin Park ( 10,547,000 )
82 - 117,000 - VESSEL - Twenty One Pilots ( 818,000 )
83 - 116,000 - NOW 63 - Various ( 116,000 )
84 - 115,000 - X - Ed Sheeran ( 2,239,000 )
85 - 114,000 - GRATEFUL - DJ Khaled ( 114,000 )
86 - 113,000 - AFTER LAUGHTER - Paramore ( 113,000 )
87 - 112,000 - THEY DON'T KNOW - Jason Aldean ( 418,000 )
88 - 110,000 - CLEOPATRA - Lumineers ( 464,000 )
89 - 110,000 - AMERICAN TEEN - Khalid ( 110,000 )
90 - 109,000 - THE JOSHUA TREE - U2 ( 3,758,000 )
91 - 109,000 - KIDZ BOP 34 - Kidz Bop Kids ( 109,000 )
92 - 108,000 - HOW CAN IT BE - Lauren Daigle ( 638,000 )
93 - 108,000 - MASTER OF PUPPETS - Metallica ( 5,323,000 )
94 - 107,000 - VILLAINS - Queens Of Ths Stone Age ( 107,000 )
95 - 107,000 - AWAKEN MY LOVE - Childish Gambino ( 218,000 )
96 - 107,000 - AND JUSTICE FOR ALL - Metallica ( 6,040,000 )
97 - 106,000 - MONTEVALLO - Sam Hunt ( 1,359,000 )
98 - 106,000 - CHRONICLE:THE 20 GREATEST HITS - Creedence Clearwater Revival ( 6,898,000 )
99 - 106,000 - VIEWS - Drake ( 1,714,000 )
100 - 105,000 - DARK SIDE OF THE MOON - Pink Floyd ( 10,158,000 )
101 - 104,000 - DIG YOUR ROOTS - Florida Georgia Line ( 429,000 )
102 - 104,000 - THE NASHVILLE SOUND - Jason Isbell & the 400 Unit ( 104,000 )
103 - 104,000 - AMERICAN DREAM - LCD Soundsystem ( 104,000 )
104 - 104,000 - FEED THE MACHINE - Nickelback ( 104,000 )
105 - 102,000 - HERO - Maren Morris ( 259,000 )
106 - 100,000 - GREATEST HITS - 2Pac ( 5,387,000 )
107 - 99,000 - 8 - Incubus ( 99,000 )
108 - 98,000 - ICON: LYNYRD SKYNYRD - Lynyrd Skynyrd ( 681,000 )
109 - 98,000 - FLOWER BOY - Tyler The Creator ( 98,000 )
110 - 97,000 - THE GETAWAY - Red Hot Chili Peppers ( 479,000 )
111 - 97,000 - ALL-TIME GREATEST HITS - Neil Diamond ( 399,000 )
112 - 97,000 - BLUE AND LONESOME - Rolling Stones ( 345,000 )
113 - 97,000 - RIDE THE LIGHTNING - Metallica ( 4,930,000 )
114 - 97,000 - THE EMINEM SHOW - Eminem ( 10,844,000 )
115 - 96,000 - STONEY - Post Malone ( 125,000 )
116 - 96,000 - 21 - Adele ( 11,870,000 )
117 - 96,000 - GOD'S PROBLEM CHILD - Willie Nelson ( 96,000 )
118 - 96,000 - TREMAINE THE ALBUM - Trey Songz ( 96,000 )
119 - 95,000 - CTRL - SZA ( 95,000 )
120 - 95,000 - NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL A WORKOUT 2017 - Various ( 101,000 )
121 - 95,000 - GREATEST HITS - Guns N'Roses ( 5,989,000 )
122 - 94,000 - 4EVER - Prince ( 161,000 )
123 - 92,000 - CALIFORNIA SUNRISE - Jon Pardi ( 190,000 )
124 - 92,000 - KILL THE LIGHTS - Luke Bryan ( 1,187,000 )
125 - 91,000 - THRILLER - Michael Jackson ( 6,821,000 )
126 - 91,000 - GREATEST HITS - Simon & Garfunkel ( 3,664,000 )
127 - 90,000 - SPIRIT - Depeche Mode ( 90,000 )
128 - 90,000 - RUMOURS - Fleetwood Mac ( 3,708,000 )
129 - 86,000 - I SEE YOU - The xx ( 86,000 )
130 - 86,000 - SWEETSEXYSAVAGE - Kehlani ( 86,000 )
131 - 85,000 - IF I'M HONEST - Blake Shelton ( 625,000 )
132 - 83,000 - ANTI - Rihanna ( 686,000 )
133 - 82,000 - THE FAME - Lady Gaga ( 4,786,000 )
134 - 82,000 - SLEEP WELL BEAST - The National ( 82,000 )
135 - 82,000 - PRISONER - Ryan Adams ( 82,000 )
136 - 81,000 - GOOD KID M.A.A.D CITY - Kendrick Lamar ( 1,678,000 )
137 - 81,000 - WE GOT IT FROM HERE...THANK YOU 4 YOUR SERVICE - A Tribe Called Quest ( 320,000 )
138 - 80,000 - BACK TO BLACK - Amy Winehouse ( 3,211,000 )
139 - 80,000 - THE ESSENTIAL - Michael Jackson ( 2,632,000 )
140 - 80,000 - THEIR GREATEST HITS 1971-1975 - Eagles ( 6,213,000 )
141 - 80,000 - EMPEROR OF SAND - Mastodon ( 80,000 )
142 - 80,000 - TANGLED UP - Thomas Rhett ( 603,000 )
143 - 79,000 - A GIRL A BOTTLE A BOAT - Train ( 79,000 )
144 - 78,000 - 1989 - Taylor Swift ( 6,079,000 )
145 - 78,000 - DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS - Bruno Mars ( 2,646,000 )
146 - 78,000 - ABBEY ROAD - Beatles ( 5,399,000 )
147 - 78,000 - HNDRXX - Future ( 78,000 )
148 - 77,000 - THE HAMILTON MIXTAPE - Various ( 329,000 )
149 - 77,000 - NOW 60 - Various ( 228,000 )
150 - 76,000 - MR MISUNDERSTOOD - Eric Church ( 560,000 )
151 - 76,000 - BACK IN BLACK - AC/DC ( 3,539,000 )
152 - 76,000 - CURTAIN CALL: THE HITS - Eminem ( 4,188,000 )
153 - 76,000 - SCIENCE FICTION - Brand New ( 76,000 )
154 - 75,000 - TURN UP THE QUIET - Diana Krall ( 75,000 )
155 - 74,000 - TELL ME YOU LOVE ME - Demi Lovato ( 74,000 )
156 - 74,000 - PAWN SHOP - Brothers Osbourne ( 169,000 )
157 - 74,000 - FAITH - George Michael ( 1,289,000 )
158 - 74,000 - TRUE TO SELF - Bryson Tiller ( 74,000 )
159 - 74,000 - AMERICAN IDIOT - Green Day ( 6,576,000 )
160 - 74,000 - APPETITE FOR DESTRUCTION - Guns N'Roses ( 5,625,000 )
161 - 74,000 - NEVERMIND - Nirvana ( 9,534,000 )
162 - 73,000 - WOW HITS 2017 - Various ( 190,000 )
163 - 72,000 - ICON: ERIC CLAPTON - Eric Clapton ( 432,000 )
164 - 72,000 - RUN THE JEWELS 3 - Run The Jewels ( 89,000 )
165 - 72,000 - LICENSED TO ILL - Beastie Boys ( 6,225,000 )
166 - 72,000 - BABY DRIVER: MUSIC FROM THE MOTION PICTURE - Soundtrack ( 72,000 )
167 - 72,000 - GREATEST HITS - Fleetwood Mac ( 5,300,000 )
168 - 71,000 - THE FIRST TIME - Kelsea Ballerini ( 309,000 )
169 - 70,000 - GREATEST HITS - Bob Seger & the Silver Bullet Band ( 9,669,000 )
170 - 70,000 - HYMNS - Joey + Rory ( 588,000 )
171 - 69,000 - BADLANDS - Halsey ( 544,000 )
172 - 69,000 - LOVE AND WAR - Brad Paisley ( 69,000 )
173 - 69,000 - KILL 'EM ALL - Metallica ( 3,011,000 )
174 - 68,000 - NIGHT VISIONS - Imagine Dragons ( 2,763,000 )
175 - 68,000 - THE BEST OF-20TH CENTURY MASTERS… - Abba ( 1,640,000 )
176 - 67,000 - THIS IS MY TOWN: SONGS OF NEW YORK - Barry Manilow ( 67,000 )
177 - 67,000 - BLOOM - Machine Gun Kelly ( 67,000 )
178 - 67,000 - DANGEROUS WOMAN - Ariana Grande ( 389,000 )
179 - 67,000 - IS THIS THE LIFE WE REALLY WANT - Roger Waters ( 67,000 )
180 - 66,000 - BAD - Michael Jackson ( 2,211,000 )
181 - 66,000 - IMMORTALIZED - Disturbed ( 599,000 )
182 - 66,000 - TO PIMP A BUTTERFLY - Kendrick Lamar ( 1,023,000 )
183 - 66,000 - OFF THE WALL - Michael Jackson ( 2,428,000 )
184 - 66,000 - VAQUERO - Aaron Watson ( 66,000 )
185 - 65,000 - WINS & LOSSES - Meek Mill ( 65,000 )
186 - 65,000 - ULTIMATE HITS: ROCK AND ROLL… - Bob Seger & the Silver Bullet Band ( 965,000 )
187 - 65,000 - CRY BABY - Melanie Martinez ( 405,000 )
188 - 65,000 - BACK TO US - Rascal Flatts ( 65,000 )
189 - 65,000 - THERE IS A CLOUD - Elevation Worship ( 65,000 )
190 - 65,000 - CALIFORNIA - Blink-182 ( 396,000 )
191 - 64,000 - A MOMENT APART - Odesza ( 64,000 )
192 - 64,000 - COLLAGE (EP) - Chainsmokers ( 96,000 )
193 - 64,000 - THE VERY NEXT THING - Casting Crowns ( 180,000 )
194 - 64,000 - PURE COMEDY - Father John Misty ( 64,000 )
195 - 63,000 - BRETT ELDREDGE - Brett Eldredge ( 63,000 )
196 - 63,000 - THE VERY BEST OF - Prince ( 2,819,000 )
197 - 63,000 - ULTIMATE SINATRA - Frank Sinatra ( 252,000 )
198 - 63,000 - A SAILOR'S GUIDE TO EARTH - Sturgill Simpson ( 219,000 )
199 - 63,000 - THE SEARCH FOR EVERYTHING: WAVE ONE (EP) - John Mayer ( 63,000 )
200 - 63,000 - PLAYLIST: THE VERY BEST OF - Creedence Clearwater Revisited ( 63,000 )

 

[rennowba]

Not even one million seller in America. Sales are bad aren't they. Taylor swift I suppose will sell a million this year. Ed sheeran will probably top a million aswell with xmas sales

 

[visocchi]

Not even one million seller in America. Sales are bad aren't they. Taylor swift I suppose will sell a million this year. Ed sheeran will probably top a million aswell with xmas sales

We'll see. Taylor Swifts last album sold 1.3 million units in the United States in its first week of release. Her new album comes out tomorrow. It will easily sell a million units before the end of the year, the question is will it top a million units in its first week on chart. As for Songs Of Experience, right now you only need to sell about 250,000 to crack the top 25 albums of the year. I think the new U2 album should easily place in the top 20 before the end of the year. The Joshua Tree is the 90th biggest selling album this year.

 

[rennowba]

We'll see. Taylor Swifts last album sold 1.3 million units in the United States in its first week of release. Her new album comes out tomorrow. It will easily sell a million units before the end of the year, the question is will it top a million units in its first week on chart. As for Songs Of Experience, right now you only need to sell about 250,000 to crack the top 25 albums of the year. I think the new U2 album should easily place in the top 20 before the end of the year. The Joshua Tree is the 90th biggest selling album this year.

Wow for the Joshua tree, that's good going for an album 30 years old

 

[womanfish]

They are saying Swift could sell TWO million in her first week. Yep.

 

[womanfish]

So I guess she won’t hit 2 million. But between 1.2 and 1.5.
Already the highest selling album of the year so far - in 4 Days.
Sigh.

 

[rennowba]

So I guess she won’t hit 2 million. But between 1.2 and 1.5.
Already the highest selling album of the year so far - in 4 Days.
Sigh.

U2 won't be getting anywhere near that. In fact if they sell 1.2 million copies in the states overall, the album will be a huge success. Fingers crossed they can do a million.

Predictions for first week sales? With the link to this ticket sales it changes everything.

There's 15 dates, not sure on all the arenas capacities so let's just say 20k. That's 300k who can claim a free record. Plus there's going to be more dates added for sure.

500k would be a Huge massive first week sale

Anything below 250-300k would be a disappointment I think

 

[womanfish]

U2 won't be getting anywhere near that. In fact if they sell 1.2 million copies in the states overall, the album will be a huge success. Fingers crossed they can do a million.

Predictions for first week sales? With the link to this ticket sales it changes everything.

There's 15 dates, not sure on all the arenas capacities so let's just say 20k. That's 300k who can claim a free record. Plus there's going to be more dates added for sure.

500k would be a Huge massive first week sale

Anything below 250-300k would be a disappointment I think

Billboard articles say that the typical redemption rate for artists doing this is about 20-30%
I would think U2 might be a bit lower than other hot younger artists, so lets put them at about a 22% rate of redemption.

So right now - 15 shows - probably an avg of about 18k per show.
= 270k X 22% = 59,400

Say they add 10 more shows
They would have 450k X 22% = 99,000


I would say the most they will get from the ticket tie in will be about 100k.
Add that to maybe 150k for traditional sales and you get 250k...

With Sam Smith only getting 200k and Maroon 5 only getting about 115k for their first week... I'm hoping U2 can hit 250 to 300k the first week, but definitely isn't a given.

Chris Stapleton is going to be a monster to beat. I'm guessing he will be in the 350 or higher range.

Best case scenario?

If they add about 18 more shows (multiples in NY, NJ, Philly, Chicago, Boston, LA, etc...) this would help. But it would also decrease the percentage of people that would redeem since there would be a lot of fans going multiple times. Sooooo lets say its a grand total of 33 shows - 20% redemption rate - 600k X 20% = 120k...

Lookin like a number 2 album for them this time around. Grrrrrrrr

 

[Super Yo]

So I guess she won’t hit 2 million. But between 1.2 and 1.5.
Already the highest selling album of the year so far - in 4 Days.
Sigh.

https://www.billboard.com/amp/artic...t-reputation-album-sells-12-million-copies-us

 

[Backstreets92]

She outsold the entire rest of the Billboard 200. And this is all on sales alone, no streaming as she's not releasing it on those platforms until next week.

 

[Backstreets92]

Speaking of next week, Eminem is rumored to have a surprise album dropping. That for sure might have an impact on U2's chance at a Number 1 album given that rap albums by established stars have had big second week sales this year: (Jay Z at nearly 100k, Drake and Kendrick well over 200k).

And Eminem's last album sold 700k copies in week one, not counting streaming.

 

[womanfish]

Speaking of next week, Eminem is rumored to have a surprise album dropping. That for sure might have an impact on U2's chance at a Number 1 album given that rap albums by established stars have had big second week sales this year: (Jay Z at nearly 100k, Drake and Kendrick well over 200k).

And Eminem's last album sold 700k copies in week one, not counting streaming.

Eminem is slated for Dec. 8th. We’ll see if U2 sticks in the top 10 on week 2...

 

[CosmoKramer]

Interesting thought to ponder.....an album leak, like the one SOE "experienced" on 11/25, is usually considered something that hurts sales to some extent. That didn't seem to be the cast for HTDAAB (sold 840k in US alone opening week) or NLOTH (sold 484k opening week). With SOE I not only think it won't hurt sales but I actually think it will increase sales.

The fan feedback that has been all over this site and twitter has been very positive. Granted they are already fans but as we have seen, there were fans who were not going to purchase the album as they thought it would be "more of the same" but were so impressed now they are buying it. I guess we will see what happens.....

 

[kiwilad]

there were fans who were not going to purchase the album as they thought it would be "more of the same" but were so impressed now they are buying it.

I'm in that camp. Not only am I buying it now, I'm buying the deluxe and have convinced a bunch of friends/family to do the same. So I don't think this leak has hurt them in my case!

 

[rennowba]

I think the large majority of people don't even know it's leaked. The nloth leak made a lot of news this leak is really in the background

 

[prbiker15]

Good time to start monitoring the charts:

http://kworb.net/itunes/artist/u2.html