Songs of Experience - Let The Chart Speculation Begin

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
See posts with no answers
Just some more chart info to sort of get a feel of how U2 may do.

Pink obviously a huge debut, powered heavily by the ticket promo, but also just did really well on its own

Gucci Mane at number 2 70,000 units. - I'm not a rap guy, but I know he's a pretty big name, and this is not the greatest showing. it was heavily helped by streaming. Only 21,000 in traditional albums sold.

Beck number 3 with 46,000. That's pretty bleak for Alt/Rock. And what gives me pause with U2's numbers. Beck is a major artist, is on tour, opened for U2, did a lot of social media promotion and some live tv promo stuff.

I am still feeling comfortable with my initial guess for U2. Obviously it all hinges on if they do a ticket thing. But if they don't, i think 140k to 160k is a good number for them. Anything higher than that would be outstanding and show that they did the lead up to this album right.

this is a good article that gives some more detail on ticket for album promotional tie ins:

http://www.billboard.com/articles/c...nk-beautiful-trauma-billboard-200-album-chart
 
The thing about Beck is that he doesn't have the built in fan base that U2 has, not even close. He did have a lot of promo as "Wow" is on a car commercial and he is getting decent radio play with Up all Night from Triple A and Alternative formats. The thing with "Wow" is it was released on June 2nd....2016! I would think any built up excitement would have burnt out by now from that single.

Thats nuts to release a single a year and a half before the album.

On a side note, I really like Up All Night. What a cool song and a really cool video.
 
Backstreets92 said:
Looks like Chris Stapleton's album is coming out that same week...
Click to expand...

aw shit. Well, U2 better get the god damn album up for pre sale to start racking up some sales. Stapleton's Volume 1 of this double album, opened with 219k in May of this year. Add on the holiday sales, and well... U2 ain't gonna have a number one unless they do a ticket promo tie in. Shit. I really hoped they would rack up one more number one album.
 
womanfish said:
aw shit. Well, U2 better get the god damn album up for pre sale to start racking up some sales. Stapleton's Volume 1 of this double album, opened with 219k in May of this year. Add on the holiday sales, and well... U2 ain't gonna have a number one unless they do a ticket promo tie in. Shit. I really hoped they would rack up one more number one album.
Click to expand...



I still am going with my predication of 350k first week with a potential of hitting 400k.

I’m basing this off of the following assumptions that are mine and mine alone:

-TBT will continue to grow on US radio and by the time of the albums release may be at 15-20 million impressions a day.

-Album announcement with an offer of a new single (whatever it turns out to be) if you pre-order

-Performance at the AMAs on 11/19 (I think that’s the date)

-RSD release of The Blackout on 11/24 May generate some good publicity

-Performance on SNL on 12/2

If there is a ticket bundle, which why not do, then this album will definitely hit closer to 400k.
 
What did nloth do its its first week? Didn't that do around 400-500k? Can't see it getting the same as that unless there's some ticket tie in
 
Rumor is Kygo will be joining Bono and Adam in Spain for the Los40 show. I’d have to believe we might be getting the first performance of YTBTAM Kygo mix.
 
CosmoKramer said:
484k first week I think.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that is ancient history. If U2 does some real promotion, including SNL and AMA's plus get the damn album up for presale NOW, and throw in some perks, then i can see them maybe hitting 200-225k. If they do a ticket promo, add on another 100k.
If they do tepid promo, and just kinda coast to Dec. 1st, and don't get the album up online to order within the week, then 150-160k or so would be my best guess. Again, add 100k onto that if they do a ticket tie in.

Believe me, i hope Cosmo is right, and i'm way off. But this is as far as I'm willing to push my estimates.
 
What do you think the worldwide total could be ?

Nloth did 5 million didn't it?

Top seller this year is ed Sheeran who has sold 7.6 million. But if you take ED sheeran and Adele out of the record selling lists nobody is doing anywhere near what they do.

The next artist down on the list is Kendrick Lamar who has done 3.2.

If nloth did 5 then I think 7 years on if soe does 3 million copies worldwide I think it's a massive success.

Anything over 2 million will be a success I think 3 plus will be a great achievement
 
rennowba said:
What do you think the worldwide total could be ?

Nloth did 5 million didn't it?

Top seller this year is ed Sheeran who has sold 7.6 million. But if you take ED sheeran and Adele out of the record selling lists nobody is doing anywhere near what they do.

The next artist down on the list is Kendrick Lamar who has done 3.2.

If nloth did 5 then I think 7 years on if soe does 3 million copies worldwide I think it's a massive success.

Anything over 2 million will be a success I think 3 plus will be a great achievement
Click to expand...

Yeah, did SOI hit 1 million? I think it did. And that was free for most people to get. So I think you're right, 2 million would be a good number and 3 would be a big deal. Would be awesome to see them hit platinum in the US again.
 
womanfish said:
Yeah, did SOI hit 1 million? I think it did. And that was free for most people to get. So I think you're right, 2 million would be a good number and 3 would be a big deal. Would be awesome to see them hit platinum in the US again.
Click to expand...



Think it did do a million in the end, like you say most people already had that record when it came out anyway.

3 million would be a great figure for them
 
If they could pull off another number 1 and a platinum album in the US. That would be their 13th Platinum (studio album) and 8th number 1 album in the US. moving them ahead of Led Zep for the 3rd most number one albums.
 
I'm going for 350k first week in the US and 75k first week in the UK.
however they ened some reasonable promotion the week of and the week before release and they need a second single (a rock single, the blackout) released the week before.

I think they will beat Stapleton. I had never heard of him and had to check him out on Wikepedia. His last album had two top 20 singles, but his forthcoming album doesnt seem to have had anything or at least not on the Hot100, without the hits and due to him having only been around (releasing albums) for a couple of years I dont think he has anywhere near the fanbase U2 has, so i'll go for him only hitting 200k first week.
 
Ticket tie in is the question of the day. Not sure if we will get an answer on that any time soon.
No ticket tie in - my guess is U2 lands at number 2, but with a ticket tie in, they MAY hit number 1.

Seeing the activity today, new single, (or two??) pre-orders with multiple formats, etc...
I'm inclined to say 175k with no ticket tie in, 250 to 275 with a ticket tie in...
This would be really close for a number 1. I think Stapleton could hit 300k because of the increased holiday purchase numbers. But hope he stays around the 200-225k that he hit in May with the first part of this album.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
175 with no ticket is way too high.
Click to expand...

You may very well be right, and I'm probably getting a little swept up in the excitement of today.
But i just am unsure on how to account for holiday sales for U2 right now. Having no real data to go by from SOI, other than 30 some thousand people still bought the album in the first week - after it was given away for free, gives us some idea.
I'm a big fan, but i know i didn't buy one. So I think 100k is a given, bottom of barrel number that they would get no matter what.

A month of pre-orders, some radio exposure, now a new single, video, and another song. Both available if you pre-order, some promo appearances leading up to the release, exposure and good will built up from the JT tour, holiday sales boost, etc... I think they could make it to 175k if everything goes right.
And I still don't think they will get less than 140.
 
Native_Son said:
I'm going for 350k first week in the US and 75k first week in the UK.
however they ened some reasonable promotion the week of and the week before release and they need a second single (a rock single, the blackout) released the week before.

I think they will beat Stapleton. I had never heard of him and had to check him out on Wikepedia. His last album had two top 20 singles, but his forthcoming album doesnt seem to have had anything or at least not on the Hot100, without the hits and due to him having only been around (releasing albums) for a couple of years I dont think he has anywhere near the fanbase U2 has, so i'll go for him only hitting 200k first week.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't underestimate him. Just because you haven't heard of him doesn't mean nobody else had. He's reasonably popular and probably more relevant to the under 30 general mainstream than U2. I personally know several people who hate country music because they think it's all Toby Keith crap, but they love Chris Stapleton.

Also, the thing about country music fans is that they are a much larger segment of the population than anyone seems to think (well, rural white people in general). Country singles often go into the Top 40 or Top 20 based on sales and streams alone without even hitting Top 40 or really any radio formats outside country (though there are certainly some big crossover hits). Country albums tend to deliver massive results on the albums chart, especially when it comes to raw sales. As far as radio goes, Stapleton himself last year managed to peak at 40 million listeners for one of his singles - on country radio alone. His forthcoming album doesn't have anything hitting the charts - yet, since it was only just announced and no singles have been released from it thus far. I'd keep an eye on this dude.
 
Backstreets92 said:
I wouldn't underestimate him. Just because you haven't heard of him doesn't mean nobody else had. He's reasonably popular and probably more relevant to the under 30 general mainstream than U2. I personally know several people who hate country music because they think it's all Toby Keith crap, but they love Chris Stapleton.

Also, the thing about country music fans is that they are a much larger segment of the population than anyone seems to think (well, rural white people in general). Country singles often go into the Top 40 or Top 20 based on sales and streams alone without even hitting Top 40 or really any radio formats outside country (though there are certainly some big crossover hits). Country albums tend to deliver massive results on the albums chart, especially when it comes to raw sales. As far as radio goes, Stapleton himself last year managed to peak at 40 million listeners for one of his singles - on country radio alone. His forthcoming album doesn't have anything hitting the charts - yet, since it was only just announced and no singles have been released from it thus far. I'd keep an eye on this dude.
Click to expand...

I'm not doubting country music or its ability to achieve huge singles and albums in any way at all. I just wonder whether this particular artist is able to replicate the sales of his album from earlier in the year, two albums in just one year, and no hit singles off this one...


P.S. From what I can understand from @u2 it looks like there will be some kind of tie-in between album and tour tickets?
 
It does look like there will be a ticket tie. But if anything Stapleton will sell MORE of the second album than the first. It will be holiday season. Country music listeners are much more likely to go buy a physical copy to put under the tree. This will be a real nail biter to see who makes it to number one.
And to be clear, IMO, it would be no contest except for the fact that U2 is doing the ticket tie in. If they hadn't, they would most definitely be in second position.
 
mikeuk said:
So the 15 dates will probably be increased before 1/12 to 25 imo so thats what 450,000 CD sales if all sell out - which is likely so should put them at 1 in US and Worldwide
Click to expand...



The sales could be staggered I suppose though. If they add dates then they won't go on sale until after week one, probably a good way of keeping it top for a while aswell. Also the ticket buyer has to claim their free record which some probably won't do straight away
 
mikeuk said:
So the 15 dates will probably be increased before 1/12 to 25 imo so thats what 450,000 CD sales if all sell out - which is likely so should put them at 1 in US and Worldwide
Click to expand...

But remember, they won't get near that number of people actually getting the album. 25 dates would be around 400-425k. I would think only about half those albums get redeemed. And not sure if the redemtion comes with a deadline, but people may not redeem the offer for a few weeks or more.

I am hoping it is a bit staggered. Would be cool to see them get 375k the first week with the first round of tickets and album sales, and then maybe stay at number 1 the next week with 100k or more.

So many artists drop 80 to 90% or more on the second week. Would be cool to see them stick a bit.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

prbiker15
U2:UV Boxscore Discussion
Replies
20
Views
1K
DeVaul
DeVaul
U
Hey there! I finally made an account here!
Replies
2
Views
266
U2_family365
U
Digital Spy 2
I am back
Replies
2
Views
264
Digital Spy 2
Digital Spy 2
MrsSpringsteen
Atomic City
Replies
11
Views
1K
HeartlandGirl
HeartlandGirl
O
Better late than never “they” say…
Replies
1
Views
277
Headache in a Suitcase
Headache in a Suitcase

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom