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Old 11-01-2017, 09:26 AM   #46
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Ticket tie in is the question of the day. Not sure if we will get an answer on that any time soon.
No ticket tie in - my guess is U2 lands at number 2, but with a ticket tie in, they MAY hit number 1.

Seeing the activity today, new single, (or two??) pre-orders with multiple formats, etc...
I'm inclined to say 175k with no ticket tie in, 250 to 275 with a ticket tie in...
This would be really close for a number 1. I think Stapleton could hit 300k because of the increased holiday purchase numbers. But hope he stays around the 200-225k that he hit in May with the first part of this album.
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Old 11-01-2017, 09:35 AM   #47
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175 with no ticket is way too high.
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Old 11-01-2017, 10:27 AM   #48
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175 with no ticket is way too high.
You may very well be right, and I'm probably getting a little swept up in the excitement of today.
But i just am unsure on how to account for holiday sales for U2 right now. Having no real data to go by from SOI, other than 30 some thousand people still bought the album in the first week - after it was given away for free, gives us some idea.
I'm a big fan, but i know i didn't buy one. So I think 100k is a given, bottom of barrel number that they would get no matter what.

A month of pre-orders, some radio exposure, now a new single, video, and another song. Both available if you pre-order, some promo appearances leading up to the release, exposure and good will built up from the JT tour, holiday sales boost, etc... I think they could make it to 175k if everything goes right.
And I still don't think they will get less than 140.
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Old 11-01-2017, 10:30 AM   #49
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The critics have been against her for the past year.

I'm predicting U2 in the Top 5, 100K for SoE.
A slight adjustment...

150K with ticket tie-in, 100K without it.
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Old 11-01-2017, 03:35 PM   #50
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I'm going for 350k first week in the US and 75k first week in the UK.
however they ened some reasonable promotion the week of and the week before release and they need a second single (a rock single, the blackout) released the week before.

I think they will beat Stapleton. I had never heard of him and had to check him out on Wikepedia. His last album had two top 20 singles, but his forthcoming album doesnt seem to have had anything or at least not on the Hot100, without the hits and due to him having only been around (releasing albums) for a couple of years I dont think he has anywhere near the fanbase U2 has, so i'll go for him only hitting 200k first week.
I wouldn't underestimate him. Just because you haven't heard of him doesn't mean nobody else had. He's reasonably popular and probably more relevant to the under 30 general mainstream than U2. I personally know several people who hate country music because they think it's all Toby Keith crap, but they love Chris Stapleton.

Also, the thing about country music fans is that they are a much larger segment of the population than anyone seems to think (well, rural white people in general). Country singles often go into the Top 40 or Top 20 based on sales and streams alone without even hitting Top 40 or really any radio formats outside country (though there are certainly some big crossover hits). Country albums tend to deliver massive results on the albums chart, especially when it comes to raw sales. As far as radio goes, Stapleton himself last year managed to peak at 40 million listeners for one of his singles - on country radio alone. His forthcoming album doesn't have anything hitting the charts - yet, since it was only just announced and no singles have been released from it thus far. I'd keep an eye on this dude.
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Old 11-01-2017, 04:25 PM   #51
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I wouldn't underestimate him. Just because you haven't heard of him doesn't mean nobody else had. He's reasonably popular and probably more relevant to the under 30 general mainstream than U2. I personally know several people who hate country music because they think it's all Toby Keith crap, but they love Chris Stapleton.

Also, the thing about country music fans is that they are a much larger segment of the population than anyone seems to think (well, rural white people in general). Country singles often go into the Top 40 or Top 20 based on sales and streams alone without even hitting Top 40 or really any radio formats outside country (though there are certainly some big crossover hits). Country albums tend to deliver massive results on the albums chart, especially when it comes to raw sales. As far as radio goes, Stapleton himself last year managed to peak at 40 million listeners for one of his singles - on country radio alone. His forthcoming album doesn't have anything hitting the charts - yet, since it was only just announced and no singles have been released from it thus far. I'd keep an eye on this dude.
I'm not doubting country music or its ability to achieve huge singles and albums in any way at all. I just wonder whether this particular artist is able to replicate the sales of his album from earlier in the year, two albums in just one year, and no hit singles off this one...


P.S. From what I can understand from @u2 it looks like there will be some kind of tie-in between album and tour tickets?
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Old 11-02-2017, 10:18 AM   #52
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It does look like there will be a ticket tie. But if anything Stapleton will sell MORE of the second album than the first. It will be holiday season. Country music listeners are much more likely to go buy a physical copy to put under the tree. This will be a real nail biter to see who makes it to number one.
And to be clear, IMO, it would be no contest except for the fact that U2 is doing the ticket tie in. If they hadn't, they would most definitely be in second position.
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Old 11-02-2017, 11:19 AM   #53
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https://twitter.com/u2uruguay/status/926105992697348096

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https://www1.ticketmaster.com/u2-exp...1&minorcatid=1
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:22 PM   #54
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Will these copies count as 'sales' or not?
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Old 11-02-2017, 02:46 PM   #55
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Will these copies count as 'sales' or not?


Yes they do
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Old 11-02-2017, 03:46 PM   #56
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Yes they do

So the 15 dates will probably be increased before 1/12 to 25 imo so thats what 450,000 CD sales if all sell out - which is likely so should put them at 1 in US and Worldwide
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Old 11-02-2017, 04:04 PM   #57
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So the 15 dates will probably be increased before 1/12 to 25 imo so thats what 450,000 CD sales if all sell out - which is likely so should put them at 1 in US and Worldwide


The sales could be staggered I suppose though. If they add dates then they won't go on sale until after week one, probably a good way of keeping it top for a while aswell. Also the ticket buyer has to claim their free record which some probably won't do straight away
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Old 11-03-2017, 11:45 AM   #58
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Not sure if we need a separate thread for Get out of your own way or Blackout? On iTunes charts, but not sure if or when released to radio?

U2 Chart Positions on iTunes/Spotify/YouTube
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Old 11-03-2017, 11:47 AM   #59
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Will these copies count as 'sales' or not?
If you redeem it in the e-mail sent afterward and have it mailed to you, yes.
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Old 11-03-2017, 12:40 PM   #60
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So the 15 dates will probably be increased before 1/12 to 25 imo so thats what 450,000 CD sales if all sell out - which is likely so should put them at 1 in US and Worldwide
But remember, they won't get near that number of people actually getting the album. 25 dates would be around 400-425k. I would think only about half those albums get redeemed. And not sure if the redemtion comes with a deadline, but people may not redeem the offer for a few weeks or more.

I am hoping it is a bit staggered. Would be cool to see them get 375k the first week with the first round of tickets and album sales, and then maybe stay at number 1 the next week with 100k or more.

So many artists drop 80 to 90% or more on the second week. Would be cool to see them stick a bit.
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