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Old 09-28-2017, 05:56 PM   #16
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Also, SOI came out Sept of 2014, and Billboard only started including streaming as part of the tally beginning in December of 2014, and probably in a much more limited way than it is gathered today.

There's always the talk of a second single as well. Would think it would almost be a given, seeing as that we are looking at 2 more months before the album...

I always think about what could have been in regards to SOI. I think if they had partnered with Apple and instead of the auto free download. They had a pop up come up on your phone when you opened iTunes - one time only - Get the new U2 album now for $4.99 [accept] or [decline]. (I believe 4.99 is the lowest price that counts as an album purchase) Either choice - you would never get another pop up asking about it.
They probably would have gotten about 5 to 10 million downloads right there that day/week. Becoming the band that had the largest one day/week total of any band in history. And you could guarantee that it would have been copied by tons of artists after that.
I have to disagree. Given how many people complained about a FREE album that they could then delete, I doubt there would have been that many downloads. Maybe in the U.S. they'd have seen 100-200K and the rest of the world may have been 1-2M total. I'm just looking at actual albums of NLOTH that were purchased for that estimate.
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Old 09-29-2017, 12:19 PM   #17
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I have to disagree. Given how many people complained about a FREE album that they could then delete, I doubt there would have been that many downloads. Maybe in the U.S. they'd have seen 100-200K and the rest of the world may have been 1-2M total. I'm just looking at actual albums of NLOTH that were purchased for that estimate.
Well, that was kinda my thinking. People were mad because the album just showed up on their phone, no asking, no accepting, no nothing. The backlash came because people were playing their libraries in shuffle and had these songs come up that they didn't ask for.
I think that if you had a pop up, asking only once if you wanted a U2 album for half the price that you would normally buy it for, you would at least get a million in the states, and a few million outside.
But i could be way off.

Jay-z i think did something that was really tricky. The album was "free", you just had to go and grab it, through Sprint or something, and it counted as a "sale" even though the record company or Sprint had covered the price of the album.
It's all very tricky stuff, and i think should have been utilized by U2 instead of just pushing it to all devices. Hindsight and all of course.
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Old 10-02-2017, 10:01 AM   #18
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The Killers are getting their first number one with 118k.
Seems like rock bands across the board are hitting the charts at this level.
somewhere between 90 and 180k.
Makes me pretty confident in my 140k guess thus far.
But I'm still hoping I'm really wrong and am underestimating by a lot.
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Old 10-02-2017, 11:48 AM   #19
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The Killers are getting their first number one with 118k.
Seems like rock bands across the board are hitting the charts at this level.
somewhere between 90 and 180k.
Makes me pretty confident in my 140k guess thus far.
But I'm still hoping I'm really wrong and am underestimating by a lot.


I originally said a range of 250k to 400k but that’s a bit wide, so I’ll go with 350!

Yes it’s a lot higher than those other bands but here is my reasoning:

1-U2 has a very large built in and loyal fan base.

2-U2 is not a singles band, they are an album band. U2 fans (see bullet 1) will go for the album

3-U2s fan base skews older and still have attachment to the physical album. Therefore, that group in bullet 1 is more likely(could be 5% of them or 25% of them) to not only buy the digital version but also a CD or record.

4-holiday season. Doesn’t have the sales boom it once did but it still has an effect

5- TBT....this is a wild card of course but IF this song continues to gain on radio, it could bring more attention to SOE

6- Im banking on U2 doing promotional performances the week before/of the release
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Old 10-02-2017, 12:24 PM   #20
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I originally said a range of 250k to 400k but that’s a bit wide, so I’ll go with 350!

Yes it’s a lot higher than those other bands but here is my reasoning:

1-U2 has a very large built in and loyal fan base.

2-U2 is not a singles band, they are an album band. U2 fans (see bullet 1) will go for the album

3-U2s fan base skews older and still have attachment to the physical album. Therefore, that group in bullet 1 is more likely(could be 5% of them or 25% of them) to not only buy the digital version but also a CD or record.

4-holiday season. Doesn’t have the sales boom it once did but it still has an effect

5- TBT....this is a wild card of course but IF this song continues to gain on radio, it could bring more attention to SOE

6- Im banking on U2 doing promotional performances the week before/of the release
I'll give you all but one of those points in different degrees.

Built in fan base, yes. This will most likely push them to a higher level than someone like The Killers. But a band like the The Chili Peppers and Greenday have a strong fanbase as well, and both were 90 to 120k.

Holiday sales will make it higher as well. So This is where i may be off on my calculation. Also, it remains to be seen if they do a ticket to album tie in. Then I will revise.

TBT could definitely boost sales a bit if it gets to be more successful. But probably by only 5 to 10k.

An older fan base i actually think is a negative. It makes no difference if they go get it at the store or download load it on iTunes, amazon, etc...
It might make it so they don't have as big of a second week drop off. But i don't see it giving them higher numbers the first week.

I could see them getting 170 to 180. 200 to 230 if they do a ticket promo. But I love your enthusiasm and of course hope YOU are right!
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Old 10-03-2017, 01:00 PM   #21
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Just a side note on something i just noticed.

It looks like the Foo Fighters may have just achieved the dubious feat of having the second largest second week decline in Billboard history. Katy Perry holds the record with an 89% drop. And it looks like the Foos will have about an 87% drop, which will put them neck and neck with Madonna who had an 86.7% drop with MDMA...

Youch. I hope that U2 can avoid that sort of decline...
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Old 10-03-2017, 01:42 PM   #22
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Just a side note on something i just noticed.

It looks like the Foo Fighters may have just achieved the dubious feat of having the second largest second week decline in Billboard history. Katy Perry holds the record with an 89% drop. And it looks like the Foos will have about an 87% drop, which will put them neck and neck with Madonna who had an 86.7% drop with MDMA...

Youch. I hope that U2 can avoid that sort of decline...
HTDAAB had a big drop (granted, that was a different era), but it also debuted with huge numbers.

With the holidays, I too think U2's release might last - provided they have the songs on radio to back it up. Otherwise the fan base will rush to get it and it may indeed see a far bigger drop than expected. But... it might rise again as the holidays draw closer and people buy more gifts.

After that, though, it's all about streaming and such. And without airplay, the album will fade fast (might be a slight uptick with a tour).
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Old 10-03-2017, 03:16 PM   #23
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Barring any sort of gimmick (tied to ticket sales, etc) I see the album coming in in the 80k to 120k range, probably hitting #1. It'll likely stay in the top 25 for another week or two, and then probably fall off the face of the Earth as far as charts go.

If it manages to stay in the upper half of the charts for longer than a month it would be a huge success for them this late in the game.
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Old 10-03-2017, 03:47 PM   #24
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I think the following month or so for the album is the wild card. We have no real data from SOI to help with this.

I fall in between Cosmo and Headache -

I'm guessing - No ticket gimmick - 150k week one, 60% drop to about 60k keeping them in the top 5 or 6. Then in the top 20-25 for another few weeks, then down to the 40-50 range for a week, and then down to the 75 range for a couple weeks and then 150's, then one last week at the very bottom and then off...

So about a 3 month run on the top200.

SOI had an 8 week run on the chart. So I feel like SOE has to do better just for the simple fact of people actually having to buy the album if they want it...

This of course is without any knowledge of future single performance, or promos they might have planned. But it feels reasonable to me.
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Old 10-05-2017, 09:29 PM   #25
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HITS Daily Double : Rumor Mill - SAY IT AIN'T SO, AMATO

The billboard album chart is apparently going to count youtube streams now. Before it was just spotify and other services.
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Old 10-06-2017, 09:29 AM   #26
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HITS Daily Double : Rumor Mill - SAY IT AIN'T SO, AMATO

The billboard album chart is apparently going to count youtube streams now. Before it was just spotify and other services.
Big question here is, will it only include the view numbers for the 1 week of tallying, or will it include built up view numbers for singles that were released months before the album?
I'm hoping its just for the week, or it would cause an absolutely crazy shift in numbers.
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Old 10-16-2017, 09:27 AM   #27
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So just checked out hitsdailydouble for the final numbers for this week. The number one album (by NF) sold about 36k and Marylin Manson was at number 2 with 30k.

wow that's crazy low. I think they said something like the lowest number 1 since 2015

Can't wait to start getting more info on U2's release to start to get a better idea of how they might do.
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Old 10-22-2017, 08:26 PM   #28
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And yet for the week after, Pink's new album sold 400,000 copies. That's more than the rest of the Top 15 combined, which includes new releases by the likes of Beck, St. Vincent, Robert Plant, Gucci Mane, and Wu Tang Clan.
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Old 10-23-2017, 04:58 AM   #29
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And yet for the week after, Pink's new album sold 400,000 copies. That's more than the rest of the Top 15 combined, which includes new releases by the likes of Beck, St. Vincent, Robert Plant, Gucci Mane, and Wu Tang Clan.
There was a substantial element of this number for tour ticket tie-ins wasn't there? Hopefully U2 do this as well. May as well do it now, as a lot of artists do it, especially the bigger ones, otherwise you'll never really be able to compare sales numbers and chart positions. Its hard enough as it is these days!
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Old 10-23-2017, 09:16 AM   #30
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Yep, the Pink numbers I think were almost half from the ticket tie in promo. That's pretty huge. Just think, if U2 did this and staggered the ticket sales over a couple weeks, they would have a number 1 album for a couple weeks and avoid the huge drop off that most artists see now.
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