so is it going to beat ATYCLB?
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mkjc
The Fly
Yes.
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
I'm not sure about the #1 status - however, it seems to have hit most of the "big" countries where chart news is frequently discussed. And it seems to have higher sales that ATYCLB in those countries.
ATYCLB had maginificent legs - spending 1.5 years in the Billboard Top 200 in the U.S. Sad to say, but 9/11 gave ATYCLB a new life. Because of these great legs, it's difficult to say whether HTDAAB will ultimately surpass ATYCLB in total sales. However, it is off to a very, very strong start.
ATYCLB had maginificent legs - spending 1.5 years in the Billboard Top 200 in the U.S. Sad to say, but 9/11 gave ATYCLB a new life. Because of these great legs, it's difficult to say whether HTDAAB will ultimately surpass ATYCLB in total sales. However, it is off to a very, very strong start.
tackleberry
War Child
I don't know.
I'm not sure if it has the staying power that ATYCLB had. It had many different surges on the charts because of the great singles it produced (also the grammy awards) I don't know if HTDAAB will have the staying around power. It seemd like U2 were all over the news for 2 years with ATYCLB. Not sure about this one.
I think part of this album's success so far is riding the coat tails of ATYCLB, much like Zooropa did with Achtung Baby. Not sure if it has enough power to stay around though....
I'm not sure if it has the staying power that ATYCLB had. It had many different surges on the charts because of the great singles it produced (also the grammy awards) I don't know if HTDAAB will have the staying around power. It seemd like U2 were all over the news for 2 years with ATYCLB. Not sure about this one.
I think part of this album's success so far is riding the coat tails of ATYCLB, much like Zooropa did with Achtung Baby. Not sure if it has enough power to stay around though....
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
I don't think it will sell as many copies in the long run. First of all All that... not only spanned 2 christmases on the charts, but also had big bounces from not just one but 2 big grammy wins, Superbowl halftime show, NBA performance, etc...
I think that it will fall by about 60% this coming week and stay pretty solid through the holiday. But if we don't have another big, high profile single or video or music awards, or tv appearance or something, I can only see this album selling 3 to 3.5 million. I don't think that this album will span 2 holiday seasons either.
but hey, that's still great sales - and I hope it does go further. I think it deserves to be heard by as many people as possible.
I think that it will fall by about 60% this coming week and stay pretty solid through the holiday. But if we don't have another big, high profile single or video or music awards, or tv appearance or something, I can only see this album selling 3 to 3.5 million. I don't think that this album will span 2 holiday seasons either.
but hey, that's still great sales - and I hope it does go further. I think it deserves to be heard by as many people as possible.
Atomic Monkey
The Fly
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Ah, but we have to keep in mind the possible number of big singles...that might keep it alive.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Atomic Monkey said:
Sorry, my opinion is that there is no other song on this album that will be a "big" single. Big meaning crossing over from Rock/Modern Rock to top 40. They may have moderate success on rock formats, with a bit on A/C, but without top 40 and Adult top 40, it's not going to burn up the charts, and won't get video play and will help the album only mildly. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. I would love to OOTS or All Because of You Take off, but not really confident that it will happen.
womanfish said:
Many of the things that ATYCLB had "special performances" Grammy's etc., this album will have as well. Vertigo will be up for some Grammy's this year, and the album and other singles will be up for Grammy's the following year. This album will be nominated for Album of the year and will probably win that award at the February 2006 awards show.
In addition, the band have already committed to 70 shows in North America and will likely expand that figure.
Lets remember that this is U2's biggest opening week in the United States ever, with the possible exception of Rattle And Hum. This album will be certified triple platinum before the end of January. While things could slow down, I predict this album will outsell ATYCLB.
STING2 said:
For whatever reason I have this sinking feeling that Vertigo will not get nominated.
God, I hope I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just preparing myself so I won't be crushed if it isn't.
We'll know soo enough. What is it 6 days until the nominations are announced?
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
While ATYCLB did win best Rock album, all the big Grammy awards went to the songs. In retrospect, this makes sense as Bono often said they wanted to make an album full of singles. Therefore, it's logical that the songs dominated the victories, as opposed to the album.
In contrast, I think HTDAAB might dominate over the individual songs. Could we have an "Album of the Year" award? Well, it's WAY too early for that. We have no idea what will take off in 2005. But the album should get nominated.
As for "Vertigo", I can't see it winning any major awards - other than "Rock Song". Still, that is some exposure that could help. And a solid album like this will be supported nicely by the tour. The only album that the tour didn't help was "Pop" - and, like it or not, clearly the general public didn't really care for that album, so the tour didn't do much to help it.
At present, I'm also thinking 3M+ total sales. I'd love to see 4M or more - but I think we'll need some big hit singles for that to happen. If U2 can have just one song that really breaks through to the Top 20, then we might see huge sales.
In contrast, I think HTDAAB might dominate over the individual songs. Could we have an "Album of the Year" award? Well, it's WAY too early for that. We have no idea what will take off in 2005. But the album should get nominated.
As for "Vertigo", I can't see it winning any major awards - other than "Rock Song". Still, that is some exposure that could help. And a solid album like this will be supported nicely by the tour. The only album that the tour didn't help was "Pop" - and, like it or not, clearly the general public didn't really care for that album, so the tour didn't do much to help it.
At present, I'm also thinking 3M+ total sales. I'd love to see 4M or more - but I think we'll need some big hit singles for that to happen. If U2 can have just one song that really breaks through to the Top 20, then we might see huge sales.
zoo tv mcg
The Fly
Guys,
It already has a 400k lead over ATYCLB and it has already sold exactly 20% of ATYCLB total sales of 4.2m. 840k is a huge number and way beyond what most of us predicted. The band is definitely more popular than in 2000/01 where they had to work really hard to win back the supposed lost ground of the reported 4m plus fan base from the early 90's.
They may not have a superbowl appearance to add 100k in sales, but I am sure they will play live at the Grammy awards in 05 and 06 just as they did in 01 and 02. I don't know how American radio is as I live in OZ, but there is nothing to suggest that the singles will do any worse than ATYCLB's singles. I actually think they will do better as they better songs - who knows what other Apple tie-in's and promotional ideas the band will have. I get the feeling they want to dominate the charts like they did in the late 80's - they are fired up
And as Sting pointed out, they have a 70 date tour to consolidate sales. My tip - it may not hang around in the top 200 as long as ATYCLB, but it will still be in there by this time next year. It will out sell it - the key is that it will sell more units quicker and spend more time in the top 10 (ATYCLB spent only 3 weeks in the top 10). I'll say 5m by end of 05, but hey I am an optimisit.
One last point - the album better win for Album of the Year after being robbed by O Brother where Art Thou Crap. How can an album have 7 grammy wins and not win album of the year. Robbed????
It already has a 400k lead over ATYCLB and it has already sold exactly 20% of ATYCLB total sales of 4.2m. 840k is a huge number and way beyond what most of us predicted. The band is definitely more popular than in 2000/01 where they had to work really hard to win back the supposed lost ground of the reported 4m plus fan base from the early 90's.
They may not have a superbowl appearance to add 100k in sales, but I am sure they will play live at the Grammy awards in 05 and 06 just as they did in 01 and 02. I don't know how American radio is as I live in OZ, but there is nothing to suggest that the singles will do any worse than ATYCLB's singles. I actually think they will do better as they better songs - who knows what other Apple tie-in's and promotional ideas the band will have. I get the feeling they want to dominate the charts like they did in the late 80's - they are fired up
And as Sting pointed out, they have a 70 date tour to consolidate sales. My tip - it may not hang around in the top 200 as long as ATYCLB, but it will still be in there by this time next year. It will out sell it - the key is that it will sell more units quicker and spend more time in the top 10 (ATYCLB spent only 3 weeks in the top 10). I'll say 5m by end of 05, but hey I am an optimisit.
One last point - the album better win for Album of the Year after being robbed by O Brother where Art Thou Crap. How can an album have 7 grammy wins and not win album of the year. Robbed????
Pop Artist
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
Don't forget there's an additional potential bounce (at least in the U.S.) from their 99% sure induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Final inductees to be announced next week (as are the Grammy nominations) and the induction the second week of March. That should likely help keep their profile up a bit.
zoo tv mcg
The Fly
Is the Hall of Fame awards televised at all - if not, the bounce will only be minor
Hall of fame is televised at a later date. I don't think this album will have the staying power of ATYCLB. There is such a huge marketing campaign now and then the Grammy/Hall of fame push comes to soon. I can see 2 million (US) by the end of March and then I think it will slow down. I don't think they will get a second grammy shot in 2006.
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
barrett said:
Why no second Grammy shot in 2006?
The album, and any songs released from it from here on out, will all qualify for the 2006 Grammies. Right now, ONLY "Vertigo" qualifies for the 2005 Grammies. I think they have a far better chance of getting Grammies in 2006 than they do in 2005.
Popmartijn
Blue Crack Supplier
Well, in its first week on the chart, HTDAAB already sold as many copies as ATYCLB in its first four weeks. Even with a 50% drop in sales in this week (which might be possible) it'll sell as much as ATYCLB did in week 5 - 7. So by next week, it has already sold more than ATYCLB had on that same date four years ago. I think that even when it has a shorter chart-run (ATYCLB did chart for almost 2 years) it'll probably sell more copies. How much more, I don't know. We'll have to see 6 months from now or so...
C ya!
Marty
C ya!
Marty
BigMacPhisto
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Due to Christmas sales, etc....I think it'll be above 2,000,000 by Christmas. I could see it hitting 3,000,000 or somewhere near that by the time the tour starts.....more singles, the rock hall of fame induction, grammys, etc....I'd say there's a good chance that it will pass four million in sales within a year.
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