Projected Sales of New Album

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doctorwho

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In other forums, people are having fun guessing song names, the album name, the tour name, possible setlists, etc. So I thought we should have fun in this forum trying to predict first week sales and possible overall sales.

As I am in the U.S., I'll start with this country.

Coldplay just had a massive first week sales of their new album, selling nearly 720,000 copies (per SoundScan). Lil Wayne's "Tha Carter III" was the top album debut of the year after it sold a spectacular 1 million copies earlier this month. This proves that despite illegal downloads, a highly anticipated album can still sell massive quantities in the U.S.

As Paul McGuinness has stated, U2 still enjoy strong CD sales. Andwith legal downloads now available, this will definitely add to overall sales.

Due to the success of ATYCLB, HTDAAB had a huge first week in the U.S., selling nearly 850,000 copies. This easily makes it U2's biggest debut in the SoundScan era.

Given that U2 have been relatively quiet for a while (releasing DVD's and "Best Of's" are nice, but nothing too new there), the anticipation is high. HTDAAB also proved that U2 can have a huge first week. The new album may come out in November, which is also good as it kicks off the holiday shopping season. Also, with other artists proving that big first week sales are still possible, this bodes well for U2 to also have a big first week.

On the other hand, U2 is an aging band that the younger generation - those who mostly buy music - can't relate to as well. U2 fans in the U.S. are usually older - people who became fans in the late 80's or early 90's. HTDAAB was helped tremendously by the iPod commercial featuring "Vertigo". This was a great way to promote the album and reach a younger market. Can U2 replicate this type of success with a new single? While U2 should have no problems selling concert tickets, will they start becoming like the Rolling Stones - a band who sells boatloads of tickets, but not as many albums?

Without seeing what type of promotion there will be or having heard the first single, predicting is especially difficult - which is why this is fun. :applaud: My guess is that there will still be a huge demand for new U2. I doubt U2 can replicate the success of the "Vertigo" iPod commercial, but a strong lead single will turn heads. U2's age - unavoidable - will decrease interest with younger people, but not to the point of a huge decline. Therefore, I'm predicting first week U.S. sales to be a bit less than Coldplay's, at this point. I'm predicting 650-700K.

In Europe, especially the U.K., where U2 remains wildly popular, I anticipate first week sales similar to HTDAAB - meaning it may hit Platinum in the first week (300,000 copies sold). In Canada, I'm anticipating the same - 2x Platinum within a week (200,000 copies sold).

Anyone else? :wave:
 
It's a bit hard to guess an album's potential sales without hearing a shred of new music, BUT I'll give it a shot anyway. Yes the Coldplay had huge first week sales (across the board roughly the same as X&Y) but it will be interesting to see if it keeps selling and hits an eventual 10 million or dies out at 5 or 6. I would say it's good for at least 8 million, though.
Now you look at U2. Their last album sold 9+ million on the back of it seemingly being "good but not great". I personally love Htdaab but the general consensus seems to be as I said above. A truly classic new U2 album will sell a LOT. Remember, touring helps lure fans in as well, and the Vertigo tour sold out all over the world.
Whatever happens, and no matter how/good the album is received it will sell way over a million in the first week, even Pop did that with only 350k in the USA.
Personally, if the sales match or beat HTDAAB I'll be happy. You just don't see any 15-20 million selling albums any more, due to downloading.
 
X&Y by Coldplay started out with about 740K first week sales, but it finished with about 3.3M in the U.S. - in other words, very similar to HTDAAB, although U2's last effort launched with about 100K more that first week. Worldwide, I still think U2 outsells Coldplay.

I realize it's tough to anticipate sales, but I'm using buzz - the same way people often use buzz for a movie to predict the box office. Granted, there they have trailers. We don't have trailers, but there are some song titles and "beach clips". LOL!

I do agree that 10M is probably the top worldwide for just about any album - regardless of the artist - due to illegal downloading. The fact that ATYCLB and HTDAAB reached or surpassed that mark is very impressive. For a release to sell more, though, it needs to be a bigger hit in the U.S. and that is tough thanks to illegal downloads. However, I'm hoping now with legal downloading playing a far bigger role, there will be a push.

One thing that is needed that the last two albums lacked, are at least two Top 20 songs. "Beautiful Day" and "Vertigo" never reached the Top 20, but this was due to some odd ways Billboard did the Hot 100 back then and the fact that BD wasn't available for purchase in the U.S. Had Billboard counted legal downloads, "Vertigo" easily would have been a Top 10 hit for U2. But then, that's where it ends too. No other song really was a huge hit from that album. When one looks at JT, R&H and AB, there are at least two Top 20 hits from those albums (and in some cases more). Top 20 hits mean the songs are being played, heard and legally downloaded - it keeps the album going. So in connection with the tour, U2 need at least two really big songs in the U.S. That will enable the album to get that extra boost and reach 4 or even 5M in sales.

But going back to first week only, without hearing a thing or seeing the album cover, U2's look, etc., I am predicting about 700K in sales. That may change once I hear any new song. :)
 
Its all gonna depend on promotion.

As stated Vertigo had HUGE promo and the song reached a massive audience. It hit a chord with older people and younger people. The one thing I have noticed about U2 fans, esp the young ones is that they come enjoy the party for a while, than move on. Literally everyone at my school had Vertigo on the Ipod, but now most those people have moved on. 04 was 4yrs ago, and now U2 have a whole new generation of music fans to win over. Their core fanbase is huge as well, but in the US, its all about if you can win over that young crowd of the time and with ATYCLB and HTDAAB they did each time. What U2 also have working on their side is that video outlets VH1 and MTV (if they even really truely matter anymore) seem to have not wrote them off yet and still give them specials and video play. I'm gonna say they can hit around 750-800k again in sales. IMO I think if promoted right and the first single catches on 900k is even a nice shot.
 
first week sales are going to depend on the 1st single in the US. another iPod advert would be VERY important! anywhere between 600-900k i think. now that downloads count on the hot 100, the possibility of a #1 single is realistic. coldplay have done it and maybe vertigo would have too.

in the UK i'd go for (same as HTDAAB) 200k. can't see it selling much more than this.
though hopefully it wont be released same week as oasis new album (6th oct?)

Mediatraffic again same as HTDAAB ~ 1.8m

Album sales depend more on hit singles than on the overall quality of the album. hopefully they wont release a different 2nd single in US from rest of world this time.

i think 10million will be total sales.

in a commercial sense they need to get the 1st single right. i'm sure they will.
 
I think it's going to depend mostly upon the first single. If they have a massive hit in the vein of Vertigo or Beautiful Day- Vertigo as I said in my thread speculating if they'd have a #1 single- would have easily been a top 10 hit if they counted downloading- then I think you will see first week sales in the 700-800K range.
 
though hopefully it wont be released same week as oasis new album (6th oct?)

You and me both, as great as u2 are, Oasis have a bigger UK fanbase so they will claim the top spot. I think u2's release will be closer to November than September.
 
It would be nice if they could sell 10-12 million with this album.

First week sales worldwide 1.5 million would be nice....I dont think they will be getting to the 20 million area but I can tell you that I will be doing my part :)
 
As others have said - it all depends on the first single (and to a lesser degree the buzz around and reviews of the album). If it really is a classic then 10m plus (4m plus in Europe) will be achieved although perhaps not as quickly as in the past. In the UK 150k plus first week virtually guaranteed and worldwide sales of around 1.3/4 m possible. Mike:love:
 
As others have said - it all depends on the first single (and to a lesser degree the buzz around and reviews of the album). If it really is a classic Mike:love:

So what you're saying is a "classic" is defined by it's first weeks sale's/single/reviews?
I respectfully, disagree. :hmm:
Were JT or AB classics in their first week?
you know, just asking? ;)
 
So what you're saying is a "classic" is defined by it's first weeks sale's/single/reviews?
I respectfully, disagree. :hmm:
Were JT or AB classics in their first week?
you know, just asking? ;)

no - not what I was attempting to communicate. two sep issues really 1st week sales influenced by the factors I mentioned whereas overall high sales cica 10m probably only possible in the current climate if it is a classic Mike
 
Here in Australia Viva La Vida is being hailed as the saviour of music, because until then album sales had been so pathetically poor that as many as a few thousand sales could land you the #1 spot.

I can't see U2 selling more than Coldplay sadly, though they should definitely still land the #1 spot.

Going to be extremely hard for them to get a #1 single, very hard to crack the top five, perhaps even the top ten, but should get a top 20 single. I think Vertigo peaked at about #5, Sometimes I believe hung around the #11-#20 bracket, and then from memory I think COBL may have debuted #19 and then plummeted.

I can see them becoming more and more like the Stones, with ticket sales eclipsing album sales by mammoth margins, especially if they continue into their sixties.
 
The music industry continues to collapse every year and album sales are really becoming less of a gauge of popularity. If this continues, the only true gauge of popularity will be concert ticket sales.

Take a look at the first 6 months of 2001 compared to the first 6 months of 2008.

In the first 6 months of 2001, 37 albums sold 1,000,000 or more copies according to soundscan in the United States. In 2008, ONLY 3 ALBUMS sold 1,000,000 or more copies in the first 6 months of the year according to soundscan in the United States.

In 2005, U2's HTDAAB sold nearly 3 million copies and finished at #8 on the year end album chart from Billboard for 2005 in the United States.

In 2007, Daughtry had the #1 album of the year on Billboard's year end chart in the United States with soundscan sales of only 3.4 million. In the #2 position was an album by AKON with 2.7 million in sales, less than what HTDAAB had done two years earlier for a #8 year end position. The #10 album on the year end chart in 2007 only did 1.9 million in sales.

On the Billboard 200 back in 2000 in the USA, the #100 album would normally sale well over 15,000 copies with the #200 album selling over 7,000 copies in any given week. Today, the #100 album barely clears the 6,000 mark and the #200 barely clears the 3,000 mark. Today its possible to make the top 40 with only 10,000 copies sold, and sometimes as little as 25,000 copies sold in order to make the top 10.

Coldplay's sales so far are impressive given the current market conditions, but it remains to be seen how long they will be able to keep this sales level up. Given the current conditions, if the new U2 album charts as well and for as long as HTDAAB did, given the current market, I think your looking at 6 million in sales with 2 million of that coming from the USA. Its a lower actual sales level, but essentially equal to what HTDAAB did relative to the rest of the industry in the current market. If the new album does better and actually equals HTDAAB sales of 9 million worldwide and over 3 million in the United States, U2 will likely have the #1 album worldwide and in the USA of 2009.

In any event Coldplay is still light years behind U2 when it comes to selling concert tickets. Coldplay has still not soldout single arena shows in cities like Philadelphia and Washington DC as well as second arena shows in Chicago, LA, and New York City. U2 were doing better concert business than that on the Unforgettable Fire tour, nearly double that in fact on the UF tour in the big markets.

So in terms of overall popularity, U2 is still way ahead of Coldplay.
 
Good summary, cheers for that strongbow.
I dont suppose your name is taken from the cider ? :reject:
 
You and me both, as great as u2 are, Oasis have a bigger UK fanbase so they will claim the top spot. I think u2's release will be closer to November than September.

Actully on u2 and Oasis last studio albums they had almost identical first weeks sales in the UK
 
Actully on u2 and Oasis last studio albums they had almost identical first weeks sales in the UK

Oasis did release in May though, i suppose that could have an effect on sales compared to later in the year.
 
Its all gonna depend on promotion.

I agree with this. I believe this isn't going to sell as much as either Hutdab or Live the Life and Death's Mates, but it will still sell ok, but there'll be a decline, moving more towards the Rolling Stones phenomenon.

I don't really care actually what this album sells, so long as it does well enough in Australia for U2 to come and tour.
 
Since U2 aren't releasing their new album this fall, like they were planning to...but in the winter, it heavily implies that it won't be as successful as their last two albums were. I say this because the last quarter of the year is clear & by far the highest grossing quarter of the year. And winter isn't. Universal must be pissed. :censored:

Anyways, considering there more than likely will be no cutting edge material included (don't you miss 80s & 90s U2? :doh: ) and will probably stick to the formulaic qualities of their past two albums that sold about 12 & 10 million copies each, I doubt it'll do more than 8-9 million copies worldwide.
 
I don't have a clue how many units the new cd is gonna sell, but there is something that I do know ...

I've been a reader of Rolling Stone for many moons now ... After Joshua Tree came out, U2 or one of it's members have been mentioned in approximately 50%+ of RS issues ... Sometimes, it was only a photo or a sidebar mention, but U2 have kept the brand name in the public eye ...

I'm pretty confident in writing that U2 is a household name at this point ... Based on this fact alone, the new cd is gonna be a big seller ... They could release a polka, cajun, or bluegrass record, but it'd still make them loads of money ... :hyper:
 
BUMP

Okay, so the fact that the album is now coming out in March/April has certainly changed the sales outlook but maybe not a lot. People claim that by releasing an album in the fourth quarter you get massively bigger sales, but in reality the sales are just more front-loaded, with big weeks at Christmas then dying right off afterwards.
HTDAAB sold 6 million in the last 6 weeks of the year, then a further 3 million over the next year or so.
Coldplay's latest album has sold 6 million over 4-5 months but is still going okay and I reckon it will reach 8 million.
U2's should do just as well.
 
I'd say U2 will probably hit 6 million; which is what 3 albums in 2007 managed to sell. So far in 2008 we've only had one album sell more than 5 million, although it is on course to hit 6 million next week.

Only one album has cleared 10 million in the last 3 years and that's Back to Black, which is nearly at 11 million. So I really doubt U2 will come close to that.

The only marker we have for U2 sales is U2 18, which sold 4.5 million; so it's definitely hard to say for this album. I'd say with a huge single and good promotion it could hit 6 million. But without probably a lot lower...


Some comparisons for albums out this year

Coldplay - 5.9 million
Madonna - 3.2 million
Metallica - 2.8 million
AC/DC - 2.45 million
REM - 1.2 million
Oasis - 0.7 million
 
Since U2 aren't releasing their new album this fall, like they were planning to...but in the winter, it heavily implies that it won't be as successful as their last two albums were. I say this because the last quarter of the year is clear & by far the highest grossing quarter of the year. And winter isn't. Universal must be pissed. :censored:

Anyways, considering there more than likely will be no cutting edge material included (don't you miss 80s & 90s U2? :doh: ) and will probably stick to the formulaic qualities of their past two albums that sold about 12 & 10 million copies each, I doubt it'll do more than 8-9 million copies worldwide.

Nah 8-9 million?. It might sell as the years go by, but on first year, I think it will do much less. Maybe 5-6 million?.
 
Bare minimum? Five million.

Maximum? Probably about 9 million after a couple of years. Keep in mind that they won't have a big iTunes promotion this time around or two Christmases (perhaps not even one!). Also, just based on the clips floating around, the new music is a bit more, ahem, complicated. It's not exactly more experimental or new sounding, but there's definitely a lot of unique chord progressions so it's a little advanced from a musical perspective. Reviewers don't really give much extra credit for that, so I don't think it will make too much of a difference on how the album is judged compared to the last two. However, I do think the songs won't be as catchy given the format, and therefore, harder to make radio hits out of when everything else getting a ton of play is simple from a musical theory standpoint.

My guess? Seven million.
 
Six Million by end of 2009.

Not releasing in time for xmas 2008 will mean a big loss of sales (maybe a million or more)
 
Six Million by end of 2009.

Not releasing in time for xmas 2008 will mean a big loss of sales (maybe a million or more)

6 million is roughly what POP has sold, 1.5m of which is in the USA. Yes, the CD market is in decline but I think U2 are in a much higher commercial standing than back then. HTDAAB sold 9 million. Regardless of the time of the year, if you are a U2 fan and you like what you hear you will buy the album anyway.
Still, having not heard any of the songs yet, we don't even know how GOOD the album is, so it's a little hard to judge.
 
6 million is roughly what POP has sold, 1.5m of which is in the USA. Yes, the CD market is in decline but I think U2 are in a much higher commercial standing than back then. HTDAAB sold 9 million. Regardless of the time of the year, if you are a U2 fan and you like what you hear you will buy the album anyway.
Still, having not heard any of the songs yet, we don't even know how GOOD the album is, so it's a little hard to judge.

The Bomb sold 9 million four years ago, it'd be lucky to sell 6-7 million now and the loss of Christmas sales will hurt the band too
 
ATYCLB was very popular and although there was a 4 year gap between the albums Bomb got a big sales boost as a result up front. I don't think Bomb was as highly regarded so this coupled with the current state of the music industry is gonna hurt.

I'd say 600,000 first week in the U.S. 1.2 million WW. Depending on the success of the singles I'd say between 5.5 - 6.5 million WW by the end of 09.

I think we need to judge the sales based on the industry as a whole however. If the album does what most of us predict it may very well be the best selling album WW next year. Even though the sales are lower than the last two they would be great sales.

:sexywink:
 
Just to show how low album sales in the United States have fallen, here is the Billboards top 20 albums of 2008 in the United States. Realize the Billboard year goes from mid-November 2007 to mid November 2008. The chart is based on SOUNDSCAN sales from mid-November 2007 through mid November 2008. Some soundscan totals for some of the albums are shown in bold with brackets.

1 AS I AM Alicia Keys
2 NOEL Josh Groban
3 THA CARTER III Lil Wayne [2,749,947]
4 LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN Eagles
5 TAYLOR SWIFT Taylor Swift
6 ROCK N ROLL JESUS Kid Rock
7 VIVA LA VIDA OR DEATH AND ALL HIS FRIENDS Coldplay [1,997,583]
8 NOW 26 Various Artists
9 CARNIVAL RIDE Carrie Underwood
10 THE ULTIMATE HITS Garth Brooks
11 HANNAH MONTANA 2 (SOUNDTRACK)/MEET MILEY CYRUS Miley Cyrus
12 GROWING PAINS Mary J. Blige
13 EXCLUSIVE Chris Brown
14 SLEEP THROUGH THE STATIC Jack Johnson
15 BLACK ICE AC/DC [1,565,470]
16 DEATH MAGNETIC Metallica [1,406,500]
17 JONAS BROTHERS Jonas Brothers
18 COCO Colbie Caillat
19 SPIRIT Leona Lewis [1,309,067]
20 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 Soundtrack
21 GOOD GIRL GONE BAD Rihanna
22 E=MC2 Mariah Carey
23 PAPER TRAIL T.I.
24 MAMMA MIA! Soundtrack
25 A LITTLE BIT LONGER Jonas Brothers [1,211,514]


Its amazing that with just 2.7 million copies sold, that Lil Wayne's new album came in as the 3rd biggest selling album of the year. The Jonas Brothers new album was just released in August 2008 and with only 1.2 million copies sold is in the top 25 best sellers for 2008. Coldplay did not even hit the 2 million mark, yet they have the 7th biggest selling album of the year.

Back in 2005, HTDAAB made it to #8 for the year on 3 million sales. In 2009, the new U2 album would only have to only sell somewhere between 1.5 million and 2 million by the end of the year to finish at #8 in the USA.

By contrast, POP finished at #48 in 1997 in the USA with nearly 1.5 million copies sold. Its strange that POP's sales level from 1997 in 2009 would likely give U2 one of the top 10 or 15 selling albums of the year.

But this is where the industry is at, with sales continuing to decline every year thanks mainly to the ability of people to get access to the music for free through the internet or other means.

Worldwide, if U2 were to sell 6 million copies of the new album in 2009, they would likely finish out the year with the biggest selling album of the year, since that is what Coldplay is doing this year with Viva La Vida worldwide with about 6 million in sales.
 
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