Predict the opening week sales of SOI

[Popmartijn]

With the new album being set for a commercial release on October 14th in the US the interesting question will be how much it will sell. U2's arrangement with Apple has thrown all previous scenarios out of the window. Retail is not happy with U2's actions as now everyone can get the album for free (digitally) if they want to.

So, will retail retaliate and not stock the new album?
Will U2 barely sell anything at all as everyone got the album for free?
Will U2 enjoy huge sales of the album because everyone got the chance to hear it in its entirely already and want to have a physical edition?

In an article on Billboard earlier this week the following was stated about sales predictions for the album:
U2 Album Downloads Off To Decent Start | Billboard

Retailers contacted by Billboard estimate the album would have achieved first-week sales between 450,000 and 500,000 units with a normal release, but in light of the iTunes exclusive, they predict first-week sales of about 150,000 units.

You can question their estimate of 500K in first week sales. I believe they inflated that figure to make a bigger contrast with their new predictions. For comparison, here's an overview of the top opening weeks in the US this year:
01 - 06-07-14 - 382,665 - GHOST STORIES - Coldplay
02 - 03-01-14 - 287,668 - THE OUTSIDERS - Eric Church
03 - 08-09-14 - 258,643 - 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - 5 Seconds Of Summer
04 - 06-07-14 - 211,288 - JUST AS I AM - Brantley Gilbert
05 - 07-12-14 - 208,974 - X - Ed Sheeran
06 - 07-05-14 - 182,338 - ULTRAVIOLENCE - Lana Del Rey
07 - 06-21-14 - 179,646 - PLATINUM - Miranda Lambert
08 - 03-22-14 - 178,880 - MASTERMIND - Rick Ross
09 - 09-13-14 - 169,222 - MY EVERYTHING - Ariana Grande
10 - 07-05-14 - 165,966 - IN THE LONELY HOUR - Sam Smith
11 - 09-20-14 - 164,182 - V - Maroon 5
12 - 05-31-14 - 163,660 - TURN BLUE - Black Keys
13 - 05-31-14 - 156,962 - XSCAPE - Michael Jackson
14 - 05-24-14 - 153,276 - NOW 50 - Various
15 - 04-19-14 - 142,916 - SHE LOOKS SO PERFECT (EP) - 5 Seconds Of Summer

So even Coldplay, the artist with the top opening week, did not even reach 400K. Hence me thinking that U2 would never have sold 500K in their opening week. BTW, NLOTH's opening week was 484K and that was more than 5 years ago.

So, what is your prediction? How much will SOI sell in its opening week in the USA?

My prediction: 183K

 

[prbiker15]

I doubt retailers are not going to stock the album, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. U2 are basically in the same spotlight as Beyoncé at this point (iTunes exclusives vs. retail).

There are many consumers who don't have iTunes, and will be willing to go to retail stores and purchase the album. However, I don't think they are going to sell a lot, as the album has been downloaded thousands of times.

Whether those who downloaded the album on iTunes go and get get the physical edition (other than U2 fans), that remains to be seen.

With that said, my prediction is 150K.

 

[purpleoscar]

I'll go with 180K

 

[The_acrobat]

I will definitely buy the deluxe edition, because that's the kind of fan I am.

I know my Mom, for example, has no idea what iTunes is. But she will still buy a copy of the album for sure. There are MANY people like that. People in my parents generation (55-ish) are about half and half in terms of how many of them have fully embraced the internet. My parents have not, although my Dad did just figure out how to use Youtube! But he only uses it to watch farming videos lol. U2 still have yet to reach this market.

IMO if they break 200,000 in the US TOTAL for SoI, they'll be doing good. Will this album sell 1 million copies worldwide?

 

[CosmoKramer]

230k

If they break 200k, that would be incredible being that it was given away for free 5 weeks earlier. Not to mention, non iTunes users have a copy if they really want one.


Sent from my iPad using U2 Interference

 

[Yahweh]

230K

Anything more then that would be a bonus.

 

[Axver]

I don't see it breaking 120,000.

 

[powerhour24]

Yeah, 120-150 would be a win in light of the climate and the free release.

 

[womanfish]

Agreed. I am guessing 110,000.

 

[mobonofo]

I'm buying about 10 copies that first week. We all need to do a little Christmas shopping on Oct 14th!

This thing has to chart well, so U2 get the last laugh on the media trolls out there.

 

[CosmoKramer]

I'm buying about 10 copies that first week. We all need to do a little Christmas shopping on Oct 14th!



This thing has to chart well, so U2 get the last laugh on the media trolls out there.

I would agree that if they opened up number one with solid sales (200k) after having their album released for free for five weeks would be an amazing accomplishment.


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