Predict 1st Week Sales of HTDAAB

[womanfish]

I'm now concerned that if the release is pushed up (like is seemingly happening in the UK) or there are a bunch of stores that break the street date, this could really mess up U2's first week sales, especially hitting number 1. If stores put it out on Friday, or sometime during the weekend, or even on Monday, those sales will show up on this weeks chart, and the sales starting on Tuesday will then be on the following weeks chart. So it's possible that they could get 100k sold in a day or two, chart outside the top ten and then sell 300k or so in the next week and be lucky to get into the top 5.

Hope the record company cracks down on this.

 

[Teta040]

Haven't heard anything about weekend sales, or a pushed up release date, though many stores are having midnight sales Monday. Or even 11 PM. Will that count as Teus?

 

[Popmartijn]

Monday sales don't matter, as that only means 1 extra day of sales in the USA. Because even though records are released on Tuesdays, the sales week is from Monday to Sunday (remember that HitsDailyDouble starts counting sales on Monday). The reason for releasing on Tuesday is that CD's are more expensive in other parts of the world, so the record companies want to prevent US imports in those regions.
So breaking the street date on a Monday would not be a bad thing. If it is before or during the weekend, then I hope enough people will know about it.
I think we don't have that problem here in the Netherlands, where the album will probably be available today (or else tomorrow), but even then U2 will likely outsell everyone else (like they did 4 years ago).

C ya!

Marty

 

[medmo]

US: 590,000

UK: 160,000

 

[csimpok]

US: 480k

 

[barrett]

Birtney Spears sold 1.3 million in 2000.
Nsync sold 2.4 million and Eminem 1.7 million in 2001.
Eminem sold 1.3 million in 2002.
50 cent sold 870,000 in week #1 and 822,00 in week #2 in 2003.
Norah Jones had 1.03 million and Usher 1.1 million in 2004.

I predict U2 will sell 703,000.

 

[womanfish]

Monday sales don't matter, as that only means 1 extra day of sales in the USA. Because even though records are released on Tuesdays, the sales week is from Monday to Sunday (remember that HitsDailyDouble starts counting sales on Monday). The reason for releasing on Tuesday is that CD's are more expensive in other parts of the world, so the record companies want to prevent US imports in those regions.
So breaking the street date on a Monday would not be a bad thing. If it is before or during the weekend, then I hope enough people will know about it.
I think we don't have that problem here in the Netherlands, where the album will probably be available today (or else tomorrow), but even then U2 will likely outsell everyone else (like they did 4 years ago).

C ya!

Marty

Marty, I don't believe this is true. Think about it this way - Hits STOPS counting albums on Tuesday. It's my understanding that sales go from Midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning to the same time the following week. Hits starts counting on Monday from the PREVIOUS week that started on the prior Tuesday at midnight.

For example, U2's new album should be available when the clock strikes midnight on Tuesday the 23rd. It will sell the entire week, through the weekend and then Hits will start to compile those sales from the previous 6 days on Monday the 29th and will conclude it's tabulation on Tuesday the 30th. Official Billboard numbers for U2's first week will then be available on Wednesday.

 

[Popmartijn]

I thought that the way Hits calculated the sales was by calling the shops and asking them how many records they sold from each artist (or the shop's top 50 or whatever). If that is the case, then I doubt they'll call the same shop again a day later to hear the changes.

 

[womanfish]

No, I think Hits must have a more sophisticated system than that because they are usually very close to Soundscan numbers and chart positions. Don't really know how they compile them, but they do a pretty good job.

My guess is that Hit's list of ten large chain stores (Sam Goody, Virgin, Fred Meyer, etc...) probably submit their sales data to Hits. That's why it trickles in over the monday and tuesday that they do their compiling. So if you figure 10 chains of hundreds of stores each, then they probably get a really good sample figure and extrapolate the numbers.

Again, i'm only guessing.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

US: 571,000

 

[METFIELD]

390,000

 

[Soldatti]

Up to 500,000 copies

 

[solar]

US: 610 k

 

[BostonAnne]

After my experience in Radio Shack - I'm going to up my guess to no lower than 500,000 copies. I'm going to go out on a limb and say 625,000. Of course, it would help if I had a clue about this stuff.

I went into Radio Shack and while waiting for someone to check on something, another rep asked me if I wanted anything. I noticed the ipod display at the front of the store, and asked to see them. Of course, they were only in boxes - but the guy started talking about them and I told him if I were going to buy one it would be a U2 one. 2 guys behind the registers said that was what everyone was looking for today - u2 ipods. Then one of them suggested that I just change the skin on one to black and was impressed when I pointed out that the bands signatures were etched in the U2 one. They both talked about the new album and were looking forward to it. I said it was out Tuesday and they were pleased. Then one said, now I can't get "Vertigo" out of my head. I think there will be a lot of new markets buying this album due to the ipod commercial - and I think it's going to show in impressive sales.

 

[BostonAnne]

One more note - one of the guys seemed pretty enthusiastic because of the title HTDAAB.

 

[disco2blue]

U.S. - 198, 000

U.K. - 71, 000

Canada - 35, 000

 

[doctorwho]

After my experience in Radio Shack - I'm going to up my guess to no lower than 500,000 copies. I'm going to go out on a limb and say 625,000. Of course, it would help if I had a clue about this stuff.

I went into Radio Shack and while waiting for someone to check on something, another rep asked me if I wanted anything. I noticed the ipod display at the front of the store, and asked to see them. Of course, they were only in boxes - but the guy started talking about them and I told him if I were going to buy one it would be a U2 one. 2 guys behind the registers said that was what everyone was looking for today - u2 ipods. Then one of them suggested that I just change the skin on one to black and was impressed when I pointed out that the bands signatures were etched in the U2 one. They both talked about the new album and were looking forward to it. I said it was out Tuesday and they were pleased. Then one said, now I can't get "Vertigo" out of my head. I think there will be a lot of new markets buying this album due to the ipod commercial - and I think it's going to show in impressive sales.

Wow! Great news.

Despite being a U2 fan, I'm wondering if I can afford the $$ for a U2 iPod. Hmmm... Is it something I need? No. But is it something I even want? Not really sure. Maybe if I see it in the stores, I'll change my mind.

 

[doctorwho]

U.S. - 198, 000

U.K. - 71, 000

Canada - 35, 000

I'm not very good with the U.K. and Canadian numbers - those could be excellent guesses (especially for Canada).

However, your U.S. guess, while reasonable, is low.

"Pop", despite the backlash against "Discotheque", still sold 350,000 copies in the U.S. its first week. The first "Best Of" sold over 200,000 copies its first week. ATYCLB sold 428,000 copies its first week.

Therefore, if HTDAAB has less than 200,000 copies sold, I think it would be considered a pretty big flop. "Vertigo" is a Top 40 hit, and while there is some backlash against the commercials, they have brought enormous attention to U2. Combine this with the start of the holiday season and 4 years of pent-up demand for new U2 (momentarily disregarding the fact that we did have some new U2 on the second "Best Of"), and I think sales should be, at minimum, 300,000 copies. Right now, I'd love to see 600,000+, but I'm hoping for at least ATYCLB numbers.

 

[BostonAnne]

Wow! Great news.

Despite being a U2 fan, I'm wondering if I can afford the $$ for a U2 iPod. Hmmm... Is it something I need? No. But is it something I even want? Not really sure. Maybe if I see it in the stores, I'll change my mind.

I can't afford one and never thought I wanted one. Then I was shoveling snow with HTDAAB playing on a portable CD player and it skipped and skipped. Sometimes it even went off completely for a bit and it was silent. and I dreamed of something that wouldn't skip - an mp3 player - an ipod! Ahh! LOL.

Tis a dream only at this time though.

 

[Popmartijn]

I'm now concerned that if the release is pushed up (like is seemingly happening in the UK) or there are a bunch of stores that break the street date, this could really mess up U2's first week sales, especially hitting number 1. If stores put it out on Friday, or sometime during the weekend, or even on Monday, those sales will show up on this weeks chart, and the sales starting on Tuesday will then be on the following weeks chart. So it's possible that they could get 100k sold in a day or two, chart outside the top ten and then sell 300k or so in the next week and be lucky to get into the top 5.

Hope the record company cracks down on this.

I think you already know by now as you posted the HitsDailyDouble article yourself, but the sales week indeed starts on Monday. Here's part of the article you posted:

Clay, Snoop Also Debut in a Crowded Field

November 17, 2004
After a 737k three-day #1 performance, what’ll Eminem do for an Encore?

Eminem's record was released on Friday 12 November. So its three days of sales were Friday to Sunday, meaning that the new weeks starts on Monday.

C ya!

Marty

 

[LyricalDrug]

First week US sales = 1.1 million, is my prediction.

U2 have been promoting the hell out of this thing, and have a #1 single, iPod commercials, and album commercials everywhere.

 

[Popmartijn]

Here's an interesting part of an article from HitsDailyDouble. Keep in mind that their numbers are merely speculation, as the album isn't officially out yet, but their prediction is interesting. If true, U2 will have a new personal record for first week sales:

This week, as we rumble headlong into a turkey-fueled holiday shopping frenzy, is the moment of truth for the U2, as we prepare to see how the band’s alliance with Apple and the many, many, many TV ads that resulted affect sales of the band’s How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (Interscope). Early estimates vary widely and range from 600k to 1 million for the album’s first week.
Interscope also has Gwen Stefani’s solo debut, Love, Angel, Music, Baby hitting the streets tomorrow. Retail pundits expect the album to see first-week sales in the 250k-300k range, but we won't have an actual projection until Wednesday morning, when we go through all this again. See you then.

C ya!

Marty

 

[womanfish]

I think you already know by now as you posted the HitsDailyDouble article yourself, but the sales week indeed starts on Monday. Here's part of the article you posted:


Eminem's record was released on Friday 12 November. So its three days of sales were Friday to Sunday, meaning that the new weeks starts on Monday.

C ya!

Marty

Yeah Marty I saw this when I posted it and thought, damn - he was right!
Still makes no sense to me, but hey now I know.

 

[ChangeTheTemperature]

Congrats to Popmartijn who predicted 850,000 a couple of weeks ago.

He was only off by 10K.

The average prediction was around 500-550K, so looks like we were 2 pessimistic.

 

[U2@NYC]

U2 earns its sixth No. 1 on The Billboard 200 this week with "How To Dismantle an Atomic Bomb." The Interscope set nearly doubled the band's previous best SoundScan era sales week (1991-present), moving 840,000 U.S. copies, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

In 2000, the Irish quartet's Grammy-winning "All That You Can't Leave Behind" entered at No. 3 on sales of 428,000 copies; the set has a to-date total of 4.2 million.

Great news!!!!!

 

[BostonAnne]

Congrats to Popmartijn who predicted 850,000 a couple of weeks ago.

He was only off by 10K.

The average prediction was around 500-550K, so looks like we were 2 pessimistic.

Yay Popmartijn!

I don't think the prediction was pessimistic - it was just based off of ATYCLB. I'm so happy to see U2 double (within $6K) their first week ATYCLB sales.

 

[Popmartijn]

Can't say anything about week 2 though...

 

[Tip Top Prince]

What does this great opening week suggest for "overall" sales? 5+ mil?

 

[andyuk]

uk 200,000 up 50,000 on atyclb