NLOTH. Week 1

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Did Switching Cell-phone Carriers Cost U2 360,000 Fans? -- Vulture -- Entertainment & Culture Blog -- New York Magazine

Lane Brown's pessimistic outlook on the band's current success. The guy totally hates the album, but still have the nerve to write an article about it.

If "Get on Your Boots" had sound-tracked an iPod touch ad, would things be different now? Most likely! First-week figures are in this morning, and U2's No Line on the Horizon sold a respectable 480,000, beating earlier projections by a little. Even so, it sold 360,000 copies fewer than U2's 2004 album How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb did in its first seven days, which is probably troubling to anyone with a vested interest in the future of megabands.

Plenty are blaming its leak onto the Internet nine days before its release (even though Atomic Bomb leaked a whole month before it hit stores), or the overall decline in music sales (even though Coldplay's Viva la Vida sold 720,000 CDs in a week last summer, which wasn't that many fewer than X&Y's 740,000 in 2005), or the cratering economy (even though Amazon was selling Horizon for just $3.99).

If we're totally overlooking the album's quality, though, the only plausible-seeming theory for the drop in sales is Horizon's lack of an iPod ad. Sure, the band promoted it everyplace else, but not even five Letterman appearances or having their own street in Manhattan can compete with preferred placement on iTunes these days. Atomic Bomb surely benefited big-time from its first single's presence in an Apple commercial (as did Coldplay's recent Viva la Vida), along with the free promotion it got from the release of U2's very own iPod in 2004.

But since then, Elevation Partners, the private equity firm with which Bono is affiliated, has purchased 40 percent of Palm, maker of iPod and iPhone competitors, reportedly pissing off Steve Jobs. Then, on Monday, U2 officially announced that their upcoming tour would be sponsored by Research In Motion, the company behind the BlackBerry, which we certainly can't imagine went over well in Cupertino. One shudders to think how they'll make up those 360,000 lost sales in ticket prices.
 
From hits for next week

RCA/RMG’s Idol alum and female empowerment role model Kelly Clarkson should unseat this week’s champs U2 with her new album, All That I Needed, and current iPod staple, “My Life Would Suck Without You,” which we interpret as her tribute to this very website. With a slew of TV appearances this week, including American Idol tonight and Saturday Night Live unh, um, Saturday night, her first album is currently looking on target to sell between 200-225k, but we reserve the right to hedge our bets based on how the tubular explosion plays out.

Ok yes she will prolly be num One next week, but for supposedly "kicking U2's ass" with her new single these 225k is way low. This goes to show, that where you can get a big single, it doesnt go into album sales.
 
NLOTH #1 Canada with 65,405 copies sold( HTDAAB sold 94,000 and ATYCLB 71,000 in the first week)
 
From hits for next week

RCA/RMG’s Idol alum and female empowerment role model Kelly Clarkson should unseat this week’s champs U2 with her new album, All That I Needed, and current iPod staple, “My Life Would Suck Without You,” which we interpret as her tribute to this very website. With a slew of TV appearances this week, including American Idol tonight and Saturday Night Live unh, um, Saturday night, her first album is currently looking on target to sell between 200-225k, but we reserve the right to hedge our bets based on how the tubular explosion plays out.

Ok yes she will prolly be num One next week, but for supposedly "kicking U2's ass" with her new single these 225k is way low. This goes to show, that where you can get a big single, it doesnt go into album sales.


I'm thinking that if NLOTH sees a 60% drop, using HITS' numbers, we should see 192K next week. If the drop is just 55% (similar to what Springsteen saw for his latest), then sales are 216K. And, of course, if there's only a 50% drop, then sales are 240K.

If Clarkson's latest is only on pace for 200-225, then it could actually be a tight race for #1.

If the AI performance gives Clarkson a boost, then she may see sales far beyond 225K. But if NLOTH drops more than 60%, then I'll be rather worried (as this album might struggle in the current economic climate and music environment).

What's key is that if Clarkson only sells 225K of her new album, this should be alarming to her label. Her last album, which was viewed as a "flop" (perhaps unfairly) sold nearly 300K its first week. And she just had a huge hit single. So 225K is rather soft sales for the album (this may suggest, though, that Clarkson is more of a singles maker than album, while U2 is more album maker than singles).
 
Some info. on the drop in album sales in the U.S.

While overall album sales dipped 5% to 588.1 million units in 2006, the combined total with digital tracks reached nearly 1.2 billion units, a 20.8 increase from last year's 1 billion units of various music configurationas.

When albums are tallied using the formula of 10 digital track downloads equaling one album, the 582 million digital track downloads last year translates into 58.2 million albums, giving overall albums a total of 646.4 million units. The overall 2006 total of 646.4 million is a drop of 1.2% from 2005's overall album sales of 654.1 million. The year to year fall is 5% when not including the digital track equivalent.



Total music album sales (includes CD'd, casettes, vinyl and digital) in the U.S. reached only 428 million in 2008 (2007 had 500.5 M in total sales), which is a 14 percent reduction from 2007 sales figure, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The data include CD and full-album downloads.

According to Nielsen SoundScan the top seller album in 2008 was Lil Wayne's "Tha Carter III" released by Cash Money/Universal Motown. The album sold 2.87 million copies. A close second was Coldplay's "Viva la Vida" released by Capital, with 2.14 million purchases.

Although "Tha Carter III" was the number one on the sales chart, it was the first time in 17 years that that the bestselling album was bought by less than 3 million consumers.

While CD album sales is on a downtrend, it was the opposite for digital music with over a billion songs downloaded, which is a 27 percent hike from 2007 levels.

In 2003, only 19 million songs were bought as downloads. However, music executives said the money from online sales was not sufficient to make up for the loss in CD album sales.

If you look at this link, you will see the Top 10 selling albums in the U.S. from 1999 to 2008.

Based on all of this, the downward trend is obvious, even when legal downloads are added.

Just something for us to consider when comparing NLOTH to HTDAAB or ATYCLB.
 
The 45% decline is for the period 2000-2008 according to what others have stated in previous posts. Thus, allowing for a linear trend, the sales decline between 2004 and 2008 should be around 22% percent. Following this rationale, adjusted sales of Horizon, had it been released in March 2004, would be in excess of 600 K. Add Thanksgiving effect to this and you´re not that far from bomb's first week sales.
Then again, a recent article reported that sales have declined by about 12% in 2009 as compared 2008 so the assumed linear trend may be indeed flawed.

Correct.

Of course, we only have one variable if we were to run the regression analysis. Time of year, musical trends, first single, price, economy etc. would all likely figure
 
According to Reuters :
U2's latest album, "No Line on the Horizon," debuted at No. 1 in 30 countries, including the United States and Britain, according to preliminary data issued on Wednesday by the Irish rock band's Interscope Records label. Here are some facts about their U.S. sales:

* "No Line on the Horizon" sold 484,000 copies in the United States in the six days ended March 8, their second-highest, first-week tally. Their previous album, "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," started with 840,000 copies in 2004.

* It marks U2's seventh No. 1 album in the United States, a run that began with 1987's "The Joshua Tree." Their only studio album since then not to debut at No. 1 was "All That You Can't Leave Behind," which opened at No. 3 with 428,000 units in 2000.

* The only band with more No. 1 albums is the Beatles, with 19. Led Zeppelin also have seven. "No Line" is also the fifth U2 album to debut at No. 1. The only other group to have five albums debut at No. 1 is Metallica.

* U2's total U.S. album sales stand at 33.2 million copies since May 1991, when the Billboard charts started using point-of-sale retail data collected by Nielsen SoundScan.

* U2's best-selling album is "Achtung Baby," which has sold 5.5 million copies since its release in November 1991, based on Nielsen SoundScan's data. "All That You Can't Leave Behind" has sold 4.3 million, and "How to Dismantle An Atomic Bomb" sold 3.2 million.

* "The Joshua Tree" has sold 3.2 million copies, according to Nielsen SoundScan. But it has been certified for U.S. shipments to retailers in excess of 10 million units since its 1987 release, according to the Recording Industry Association of America, the trade group that hands out gold and platinum awards. "Achtung Baby" follows with 8 million units
 
According to Reuters:
U2's latest album, "No Line on the Horizon," debuted at No. 1 in 30 countries, including the United States and Britain, according to preliminary data issued on Wednesday by the Irish rock band's Interscope Records label. Here are some facts about their U.S. sales:

* "No Line on the Horizon" sold 484,000 copies in the United States in the six days ended March 8, their second-highest, first-week tally. Their previous album, "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," started with 840,000 copies in 2004.

* It marks U2's seventh No. 1 album in the United States, a run that began with 1987's "The Joshua Tree." Their only studio album since then not to debut at No. 1 was "All That You Can't Leave Behind," which opened at No. 3 with 428,000 units in 2000.[/]

* The only band with more No. 1 albums is the Beatles, with 19. Led Zeppelin also have seven. "No Line" is also the fifth U2 album to debut at No. 1. The only other group to have five albums debut at No. 1 is Metallica.

* U2's total U.S. album sales stand at 33.2 million copies since May 1991, when the Billboard charts started using point-of-sale retail data collected by Nielsen SoundScan.

* U2's best-selling album is "Achtung Baby," which has sold 5.5 million copies since its release in November 1991, based on Nielsen SoundScan's data. "All That You Can't Leave Behind" has sold 4.3 million, and "How to Dismantle An Atomic Bomb" sold 3.2 million.

* "The Joshua Tree" has sold 3.2 million copies, according to Nielsen SoundScan. But it has been certified for U.S. shipments to retailers in excess of 10 million units since its 1987 release, according to the Recording Industry Association of America, the trade group that hands out gold and platinum awards. "Achtung Baby" follows with 8 million units.


A few tiny mistakes or clarification points here (see bold areas).

JT and R&H did not debut at #1. I think both took 3 weeks to reach the Top (in the "old" system). However, every album since JT, except ATYCLB, has reached #1 (7 #1's). Reuters is correct that U2 has had five albums to debut at #1.

JT has sold 3.2M units in the U.S. in the SoundScan era (from 1991 to present). But it's certified as 10X Platinum as the bulk of its sales were from 1987 to 1991 (pre-SoundScan). It may also have the AB aspect going for it, where the album is 8X Platinum but only sold 5.5M units per SoundScan. Stores don't have an extra 2.5M copies of AB sitting around. Those units came from sources SoundScan didn't count at the time, like record clubs.

The RIAA and SoundScan data from "Zooropa" and on match fairly well.

It looks like the SoundScan estimate is higher than HITS, with 484K sold (HITS was just under 480K). That's nice. :applaud: I've found that HITS and SoundScan usually agree well, but that HITS can be a bit low.
 
in finland n.1 up to 3 first 2-3 days on sale.:up:so we have for mediatraffic this week: usa 484k,uk157k, aus 29k,canada 65k,jap 16k. total for these 5 countries is 751k.i think 1,4-1,5 on mediatraffic.:up:
 
Sorry if this has already been posted here, but I thought this LA Times article on the "slow" sales for NLOTH is better than other professionally published pieces on the subject.

It puts the album's sales in perspective with the band's past releases, calls HTDAAB's 840K an anomaly, and points the finger at GYOB for not pushing more units...here it is:

First-week sales of U2’s “No Line on the Horizon” brought the superstar rock band back down to Earth. The album, given the band's stature and sales history, was essentially preordained to debut atop the U.S. pop charts when it was announced last year. The only question was how many it would sell.

The Interscope album sold a brisk 484,000 copies in the U.S., according to data from Nielsen SoundScan. It’s the biggest first-week tally since Britney Spears’ “Circus” sold 505,000 copies during the holiday season last year.

But the number everyone will talk about is 840,000. That’s what U2’s “How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb” sold when it debuted at No. 1 in 2004. Another recent barometer, the U2-influenced band Coldplay's album "Viva la Vida," sold more than 700,000 units when it was released last year.

Though the 356,000-unit sales gap can certainly be attributed to year after year of double-digit declines in album sales, a closer look at U2’s recent sales stats suggests that “Atomic Bomb” was a bit of an aberration in the career of the Irish superstars.

“Certainly this is not the 800 [thousand] that the last album did, but that was more than four years ago -- in a different kind of economy, a different kind of music-buyer landscape, and it came out Thanksgiving week,” said Billboard chart analyst Keith Caulfield.

U2’s 2000 release “All That You Can Leave Behind” opened with sales of 428,000 copies. Prior to “Behind,” U2's highest debut in the pre-file-sharing era was 1993’s “Zooropa,” which launched with 377,000 copies. SoundScan began tracking sales data in 1991.

“Behind” reestablished U2 as a force on rock radio, spawning hits such as “Beautiful Day” and “Elevation.” The trend continued into the release of “Atomic Bomb,” as the single “Vertigo” topped Billboard's modern rock chart and was the cornerstone of an inescapable Apple iPod commercial. When “Atomic Bomb” was released, “Vertigo” was a top-40 hit on the U.S. singles chart.

That kind of radio success has thus far eluded U2 with “No Line,” despite a massive U2 marketing campaign that has taken the act to the Grammys and a weeklong stint on “Late Show With David Letterman.” When Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends" topped the U.S. pop chart with sales of 721,000 copies in June, the title cut was on its way to hitting No. 1 on the U.S. singles charts.

By comparison, U2’s recent release, “Get On Your Boots,” has spent only sporadically appeared on the chart and most recently was hanging on at No. 96. SoundScan reports the cut has sold 188,000 digital copies to date, a number that seems rather quaint when rapper Flo Rida is setting digital sales records with one-week totals such as 636,000.

U2's “last album was kind of an anomaly,” Caulfield says. “Could they have done more? Sure. Lil Wayne did 1 million, but I don’t think this is going to drop off the chart next week.”

Perhaps not, but the real test for U2 is likely to come this summer, when the band begins its upcoming U2360 stadium tour. A Los Angeles date has not yet been announced for the Live Nation-produced endeavor -- the first tour as part of U2's 12-year, multifaceted arrangement with the promoter. The band’s last tour, tied to the release of “Vertigo” in 2005, was the second-highest-grossing tour ever, bringing in $389 million, according to Billboard.
 
I know cd sales mean alot to the record companies obviously, but when you think of it how much per sale does the band get from a $10 or even $20 cd when compared to a concert ticket that may go anywhere from $30 to $250, I know which one i would rather be able to generate considering they will have no problem playing in front of close to a million people a month.
did some quick math and if you believe what paul m is saying that just 15% of the tickets will priced out at $250 those tickets alone in a 60 000 seat stadium would gross $ 2 250 000.00 !!! thats from only 9000 tickets, I can see alot of these shows grossing 7 even 8+ million each night. yet you get goofs like perez hilton slag U2 for not being popular anymore because they can't sell 99 cent singles on itunes. I know I'm preaching to the choir here but man shit like that bugs me. let me know when kelly clarkson gets 8 million downloads in one night then i'll be impressed.
 
DOH! Here comes the bad press...

U2's 'No Line on the Horizon': Sales don't live up to the hype | PopWatch Blog | EW.com

Looks like there's some optimism with "Magnificent" as the next single though. And at least they didn't try to blame the "weak sales" on U2 losing their relevance or some crap like that. They blamed "Boots" as not being a good first single. While I agree, they failed to mention anything about the iTunes ad that Coldplay had for Viva La Vida and the time of year that HTDAAB was released in...
 
Better than expected first week numbers, but I still think this album will not outsell even POP in the US. There will be a significant 2nd week drop, and the album will take all year to make it to one million sold. Grammys next year will then give U2 another few hundred thousand units sold, and then that's that. But at least they'll walk away with another armful of grammy awards.
 
Better than expected first week numbers, but I still think this album will not outsell even POP in the US. There will be a significant 2nd week drop, and the album will take all year to make it to one million sold. Grammys next year will then give U2 another few hundred thousand units sold, and then that's that. But at least they'll walk away with another armful of grammy awards.

Well with 3 singles left to go and a cross country stadium tour, I wouldn't count NLOTH out yet :wink:
 
DOH! Here comes the bad press...

U2's 'No Line on the Horizon': Sales don't live up to the hype | PopWatch Blog | EW.com

Looks like there's some optimism with "Magnificent" as the next single though. And at least they didn't try to blame the "weak sales" on U2 losing their relevance or some crap like that. They blamed "Boots" as not being a good first single. While I agree, they failed to mention anything about the iTunes ad that Coldplay had for Viva La Vida and the time of year that HTDAAB was released in...

It is a shame that the naysayers are finding whatever they can to attack. The album sells nearly 500K copies - better than predictions - and yet still is blasted because it didn't sell 840K!

And when HTDAAB sold 840K, some blasted it for not selling 1M copies!

When early HITS numbers suggested that HTDAAB might not be as high as projected (remember, HITS can give a false low reading on Day 1 if people try to extrapolate), that was blasted.

In other words, people will find fault with U2 no matter what. I bet if NLOTH sold 700K, these articles would still be there, wondering why U2 didn't sell more! Of if it sold 800K, they'd wonder why there was a 40K drop.

If one wants to attack anything, wonder why "Pop" sold only 347K its first week, despite having a Top 10 single. Or why ATYCLB only sold 428K its first week, despite having a big first single. Or why those albums both sold less, despite the lack of illegal downloads (an issue for ATYCLB, but non-existent for "Pop").

But whatever. If NLOTH goes on to sell 2M copies, then it will match Coldplay's latest (for those who feel the need to compare U2 with them).
 
Better than expected first week numbers, but I still think this album will not outsell even POP in the US. There will be a significant 2nd week drop, and the album will take all year to make it to one million sold. Grammys next year will then give U2 another few hundred thousand units sold, and then that's that. But at least they'll walk away with another armful of grammy awards.

I don´t think so. If nothing strange happens it should attain platinum in a month time or so.
 
NLOTH certainly has helped U2's back catalogue in the U.S. Here are the chart positions on today's Billboard Top Catalog Albums:

#10 Re-entry U218 Singles
#21 Re-entry U2: Best of 1980-1990
#32 Re-entry U2 The Joshua Tree (Deluxe Edition)

These same albums come in at #122, #145, and #193 on Billboard's COMPREHENSIVE Top 200 albums sales, giving U2 4 albums in the U.S. selling in the Top 193 albums sold here last week.
 
NLOTH #1 in Spain (22,132 copies sold). For a 46 million population country ,this is a disaster.(the number 2 this week in Spain sold 2,548 copies).
 
this week for mediatraffic we have 827220 copies sold in 7 countries (usa,uk,aus,can,jap,fra,spa).what do you think will be the final numbers on mediatraffic?
 
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