New Album to go #1?

[womanfish]

My Gut is telling me that Eminem will have to sell over 1 million copies to have a shot at remaining #1 the week "Bomb" is released. Since the week U2 is releasing their album will include "Black Friday", a 25% to 50% increase is needed to adjust ones normal predictions. This is a big business week close to Christmas. The first week of November that ATYCLB was released in, simply does not have this level of activity.

1. I think U2 will sale more their first week than they did four years ago because of the huge success of ATYCLB.

2. The week the album is being released in, is potentially the biggest week for album sales all year with the exception of Christmas week.

3. Vertigo is red hot and after only 3 days of airplay is already U2's 16th biggest hit on the HOT 100 ever.

I agree with you that the new album for U2 will sell a bit more the first week than their last album did, but like you said this is one of the biggest weeks for album sales of the season, so i don't see Eminem fading in the same way that he would at another time of year. This is dangerous for U2 hitting number one, and I think all in all, they will lose out because of those consistent sales numbers that will continue to carry Eminem, even if U2 is boosted a bit.

 

[TwoAmericas]

I don't expect HTDAAB to hit No. 1, but if the other singles off the album are good, I hope the album stays in the top 20. It's so hard for a band to sustain its popularity for so long. Let's face it, the music industry is driven by teenagers. They want to buy the pop, hip-hop, boy punk rock albums, not dinosaur rock band albums.

 

[doctorwho]

I would love for Sting2 to be right, but if "Beautiful Day" couldn't drive U2 to the top in 2000 in a comparatively slower week in very late October, I highly doubt "Vertigo" will be able to give U2 another #1 album.

Of course, what I really care about are sales! I'm more interested in seeing if U2 can sell 500,000+ copies in their first week - and continue at a strong pace through the first week of Jan. (the week after Christmas). If they can sell 100,000-200,000+ copies for that time, they'll have a Platinum album before the year is out!

 

[anitram]

Of course, what I really care about are sales! I'm more interested in seeing if U2 can sell 500,000+ copies in their first week - and continue at a strong pace through the first week of Jan. (the week after Christmas). If they can sell 100,000-200,000+ copies for that time, they'll have a Platinum album before the year is out!

Don't you think they would ship ~1 million copies in the initial shipment anyway, seeing as to how the album will do very well in week 1 and continue to sell well at Christmas time? That would give them their RIAA platinum status almost immediately.

 

[saltwaterkiss26]

I dunno - the competition with Eminem will be tricky, but, as others have pointed out, HTDAAB's got a lot more driving it (ATYCLB) than ATYCLB did (not that we didn't all love Pop, but...) Besides, it seems to me that Vertigo is getting more airplay on the alternative and modern rock stations now than on the classic rock ones - those that usually play U2 all the time.

Both Eminem and U2 have kind of drifted out of the music scene recently. Maybe it'll actually come down to who's better.

...

 

[Popmartijn]

Don't you think they would ship ~1 million copies in the initial shipment anyway, seeing as to how the album will do very well in week 1 and continue to sell well at Christmas time? That would give them their RIAA platinum status almost immediately.

Certainly. But I think it always feels nicer when you've earned the certification in contrast to just getting it. That said, albums cannot be certified until a minimum of 4 weeks after it is released. So while U2 may have sold more than 1 million records before the end of the year, they won't be certified until 2005.

C ya!

Marty

 

[WHYWHY]

good to see you back doc

 

[STING2]

I would love for Sting2 to be right, but if "Beautiful Day" couldn't drive U2 to the top in 2000 in a comparatively slower week in very late October, I highly doubt "Vertigo" will be able to give U2 another #1 album.

Of course, what I really care about are sales! I'm more interested in seeing if U2 can sell 500,000+ copies in their first week - and continue at a strong pace through the first week of Jan. (the week after Christmas). If they can sell 100,000-200,000+ copies for that time, they'll have a Platinum album before the year is out!

Great to see you back!

I've not seen you around since the other website went down a while back. Do you still get the soundscan reports?

 

[STING2]

Certainly. But I think it always feels nicer when you've earned the certification in contrast to just getting it. That said, albums cannot be certified until a minimum of 4 weeks after it is released. So while U2 may have sold more than 1 million records before the end of the year, they won't be certified until 2005.

C ya!

Marty

Actually they should be elligible just prior to Christmas. But, I think they are going to wait for a double or Triple Platinum certification, so it will probably be 2005.

 

[Vox02]

I would love for Sting2 to be right, but if "Beautiful Day" couldn't drive U2 to the top in 2000 in a comparatively slower week in very late October, I highly doubt "Vertigo" will be able to give U2 another #1 album.

Of course, what I really care about are sales! I'm more interested in seeing if U2 can sell 500,000+ copies in their first week - and continue at a strong pace through the first week of Jan. (the week after Christmas). If they can sell 100,000-200,000+ copies for that time, they'll have a Platinum album before the year is out!

Hi Doc!!!!