The music industry is in a recession...
Tallarico said:
Only near 600 copies more than last week in BB.....
22K on hits were great!!!But i think that in this moment whitout a smash hit, the tour alone is not enought to increase in the album chart...
I share your frustration, but I have been reviewing BB statistics and the "business" part of the music industry since the release of HTDAAB. For years now I've heard industry exec's complain about illegal downloading and how it's destroying the industry, etc., and like a lot of consumers, I've blown off these complaints. However, here are some fact-based statistics that tell a pretty alarming story from this week's issue (actually, this issue shows up in EVERY BB issue):
****************************************************
Album units, current chart week: 9.82 million units
DOWN 25.5% from same week, 2004: 13.18 million units
The No. 100 album this week, Casting Crowns' "Casting Crowns" (Beach Street/Reunion), sells 9,000 copies.
Average total, year to date, for the No. 100 album this year: 10,966.
Average total, year to date, for the No. 100 album last year (2004): 13,488.
Average total, year to date, for the No. 100 album, 10 years ago (1995): 11,859
Sales for the year to date are 10% behind last year, at 165 million units.
****************************************************
I have posted other excerpts from the business section and a conservative estimate is that 2004/2005 CD sales are down 35% from 2000/2001 levels. People argue at length about why this has happened, and the industry exec's would like to blame it all on illegal downloading, others site the quality of music, and still others blame the economy. Now, while I agree there is no single factor that is 100% to blame, I have come to realize that illegal downloading IS really taking a huge chunk of sales out of the CD industry.
Many very loyal fans, like myself, downloaded HTDAAB before it's release, along with some of the outtakes. We justified it because we planned on buying the CD anyway. How many people do that, however? It appears to me that given all the facts, a VERY conservative estimate is that overall CD sales are down 25% in total over the last 5 years from illegal downloading. Again, this may not be accurate for the members at Interference, but it's easily true for the general public. Just about anyone in the U.S. can either download all the free music they want by themselves or others can do it for them. I assume that's the case around the world, with even easier access in many places, as the U.S. does not have the premier PC infrastructure in today's world.
So, with all this information, I think it's very fair to say that their are at least 10M copies of HTDAAB in consumer's hands, while only 7.5M copies have actually been sold. I even think that's a very conservative number. I really think that it may be closer to 12-13M copies in consumers hands, as U2 is regularly sited as the most "pirated" band out there. Many of their peers were, and maybe still are, angry with U2 for their perceived apathy towards piracy...Pearl Jam blasted Bono for some of the comments he made back when ATYCLB was released. I can't remember exactly what Bono said, but it came across as "we don't really care about our fans downloading our music as long as they do it for themselves and not for profit". Bono was referring to concert bootlegs mostly, but I can understand the other point of view. U2 is the biggest band in the world. They don't need the money. They make much, much more from their instantly sold out world tours. For new, struggling artists and even musicians or bands of modest success - they don't have these luxuries.
I think U2 have changed their attitude about illegal downloading, but they also blame the record industry itself for not moving fast enough to embrace change and new technology, instead choosing to rant and rave and sue kids, which wins very few supporters. Personally, I agree with this 100% (more on that in a moment).
So, while U2's chart positions may look respectable in the U.S., the CD sales at #38 are, at times, nearly JUST HALF of what they were for the same chart position for ATYCLB during it's run. Are there exceptions? Yes. Green Day is selling more records than U2 during the last several months. However, they have been touring longer, and they have two #1 smash hits, with a 3rd rising fast and more potentials. This may as well be their "Joshua Tree" album. Despite it's amazing success worldwide, though, it's still only sold about the same number of CD's as U2 has with HTDAAB, and it's been out longer with an International tour behind it already and MUCH more radio play. I don't doubt that there are well over 10M copies of American Idiot in consumers hands as well, and it could be much higher, too.
It's funny to me to here other bands bash U2 for the i-pod commercial. Someone should have done it a long time ago. Yes, revenues are lower with downloading, but so is the cost structure. However, you can't hang on to the old way of doing business forever, i.e., primarily through CD sales, when it's becoming outdated. You can't straddle the fence, either. The longer you keep your old cost structure in place and reluctantly accept the newer (but lower cost) business model as a "side business", the better chance you have for going out of business completely. That's why I agree that the record companies are just as big a part of the whole problem, if not bigger, as the people who are doing the illegal downloading.
Technology has turned the entire economy on it's head in the last 15 years...music is no different. There will be a time when artists don't need record companies and can sell their music directly to consumers. Greedy record companies could have embraced the technology and found a way to be a viable business partner for musicians going forward, but I think it's passed most of them by already. The industry is headed for a lot more pain and turmoil before things "get better". It's a shame that today, unlike the manufactured Pop U2 came back to destroy in 2000-2002, there seem to be a lot of good new bands popping up, and good rock and alternative music seems to be making a comeback. I wonder how many of these bands will get caught in the crossfire in a very volatile industry transformation. Don't get me wrong...there is still plenty of manufactured bubblegum Pop and crap rap (not all rap music) polluting the airwaves...but it's not as bad as it was in the last 1990's.
I'm sure most of you are sick of my rant on Business 101. The real point I was trying to make here is that modest hit songs and a tour may very well be doing their job by just maintaining CD sales in today's market. There are one or two exceptions, but even Green Day is showing signs of cooling off, and U2 may just now be heating up. The tour now looks to be going for another year, and so R.O.W. sales will get a big boost this summer, and N.A. will get a boost in the fall when the tour returns during the Christmas selling season. Then the Grammy awards. All the while a relentless wave of singles. The result? HTDAAB will sell about 13M copies in total by this time next year. The irony? 13M in sales for HTDAAB could have been 18-20M in sales without illegal downloading.
