May Have to Estimate Weeks 4 & 5!

[doctorwho]

Here is a snippet of an article from Hits:

Indeed, his Loyal to the Game (Amaru/Interscope), the latest of 10 or so posthumous releases from the prolific rapper, is on track to be next week’s top chart debut, selling at least 250k, according to early reports from national accounts.

At the top of next week’s chart, look for a tussle among U2, Eminem and possibly 2Pac. There’s no clear winner now, and it’s likely to remain a tight race through the end of the week. Also, don’t count out Now 17 or Shania Twain’s Greatest Hits, both of which have been surging.

And now, as our holiday gift to you, we will disappear for the rest of the year, leaving you with warm wishes and more time to read stuff that actually matters. Thank you.

If they disappear for the rest of the year, that means we won't see sales reports on the 20th and 21st. I expected this on the 27th and 28th as Hits always "closes" then, but not this week.

Therefore if true, we may need to estimate sales for TWO weeks, unles Soldatti can provide us with SoundScan numbers.

One thing of either concern is that Hits stated that 2Pac's posthumous release is on pace for 250K. They admit in the article (I snipped this out) that sales could increase dramatically this weekend - the last weekend before Christmas. However, for U2, Eminem and 2Pac to be fighting it out for only 250K in sales the week before Christmas is VERY bad as it's extremely low.

My guess is that it'll be a close race between U2, Eminem, 2Pac, maybe Shania Twain and the Now release - all with sales of 300-400K. 250K just seems WAY too low. I also expect pretty big numbers for the chart that will appear on Dec. 30th. That chart will represent sales from Dec. 20th through the 26th, which should also be VERY strong. Sadly, again, we won't have Hits to help.

Therefore, I hope Soldatti's SoundScan source comes through!

Side note: 2Pac is either still alive, using the "death as a career move" idea to an extreme, or he recorded an ENORMOUS amount of material in a very short time - because I've never heard of an artist having this many releases of new material after he died.

 

[womanfish]

Yeah that sucks, because it's such a wildcard week that it would be cool to see the building chart. I know I have to go get another copy or two for gifts. I'm having a hard time even making any sort of predictions for this coming week. Hope we can keep getting those soundscan numbers.
The album bouncing back to number 1 would be soooo cool.

 

[STING2]

Here is a snippet of an article from Hits:



If they disappear for the rest of the year, that means we won't see sales reports on the 20th and 21st. I expected this on the 27th and 28th as Hits always "closes" then, but not this week.

Therefore if true, we may need to estimate sales for TWO weeks, unles Soldatti can provide us with SoundScan numbers.

One thing of either concern is that Hits stated that 2Pac's posthumous release is on pace for 250K. They admit in the article (I snipped this out) that sales could increase dramatically this weekend - the last weekend before Christmas. However, for U2, Eminem and 2Pac to be fighting it out for only 250K in sales the week before Christmas is VERY bad as it's extremely low.

My guess is that it'll be a close race between U2, Eminem, 2Pac, maybe Shania Twain and the Now release - all with sales of 300-400K. 250K just seems WAY too low. I also expect pretty big numbers for the chart that will appear on Dec. 30th. That chart will represent sales from Dec. 20th through the 26th, which should also be VERY strong. Sadly, again, we won't have Hits to help.

Therefore, I hope Soldatti's SoundScan source comes through!

Side note: 2Pac is either still alive, using the "death as a career move" idea to an extreme, or he recorded an ENORMOUS amount of material in a very short time - because I've never heard of an artist having this many releases of new material after he died.

The Billboard website gives the soundscan totals for the entire top 10 Wendsday afternoon. So we should see that for the 22nd but may miss info on the 29th. But on Wendsday the 5th of January, the top 10 column will probably update the previous "Frozen week" numbers.