Interesting Nielsen stats

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nathan1977

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From Billboard:

MPORTANT SALES TRENDS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Fewer new releases are reaching one million units in sales, a very small number of them even get to 5,000 units and maintaining early sales.

Those were the lessons learned from Nielsen’s presentation at last month’s NARM conference in Chicago. Some of the highlights from the presentation:

12 Albums Released in 2009 Sold More than One Million Units

Of the 97,751 albums released in 2009, only 12 of them sold more than one million units last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The number of titles to reach one million units in previous years was 35 in 2006, 27 in 2008 and 22 in 2009.

The new releases that do sell over one million units in the year of their release, however, are maintaining their average. Between 2006 and 2009, the average annual tally for titles reaching the one million mark has ranged from a low of 1.42 million in 2008 to a high of 1.61 million in 2009. In years past, there were far more titles in the one million to 1.4 million range. Now
such titles would probably not reach the one million mark and as a result would not be included in these calculations. So, the average of the titles
in this million-plus ground stays about the same even though there are fewer sales and less revenue from these million-plus sellers.

A side note: Albums routinely sell well after their year of release. In the case of Taylor Swift, her 2006 debut sold over one million units in both 2007 and 2008 after selling less than 300,000 units in the year it was released. Zac Brown Band’s The Foundation, released in 2008, sold over one million units in 2009. And Michael Jackson’s catalog sold millions in 2009 but was not counted in these figures.

Only 771 of 2009’s New Albums Sold Over 5,000 Units

The numbers are enough to make you stop and think. Only 2.1% of the 97,751 albums released in 2009 – or about 2,050 unique titles – reached a threshold most people would assume is within reach of just about any artist.

The Number of New Albums Actually Dropped in 2009

If 97,751 new releases seems high, consider it’s actually a lower number than the 105,000 new releases that came out in 2008. Expect the number of new releases to hold steady or decline in the coming years. In recent years, digital
distributors flooded online retail with foreign catalogs being licensed to new territories. In effect, these distributors are catching up to all the music that’s available from around the world. As with most games of catch up, this one won’t go on forever. As fewer and fewer old recordings find their way to U.S. retailers for the first time, the unique number of titles released in a given year will fall. There may be an increase in the number of domestic recordings, but it may not be enough to make up for the fall in new foreign catalogs.

Albums’ Second-Week Fade Are Getting Bigger

The median second-week fade was 62.8% in 2009 and had steadily dropped each year from 33.9% in 2000. Nielsen’s explanations are good ones: marketing budgets are more limited, presales are more common, core fans are more aware of new releases, piracy may be eroding sales of casual fans. These are the results of the last decade’s shift from physical to digital sales. Internet sales – both physical and digital – mean a greater percentage of total sales will come from pre-orders that SoundScan counts as first-week sales.

Here are a few other thoughts. Because radio plays less of a role in album sales, few albums get the lasting benefits of radio promotion that helps sales after the initial push. And because there are fewer marketing dollars being spent at physical retail, there are fewer titles enrolled in price-and-placement programs that used to position a sale-priced CD for the first two or four
weeks of release.

These factors combine to create a retail environment in which it is easier to get core fans’ attention but difficult to market beyond those core fans.
 
Is there a typo here?

Of the 97,751 albums released in 2009, only 12 of them sold more than one million units last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The number of titles to reach one million units in previous years was 35 in 2006, 27 in 2008 and 22 in 2009

First, it says that 12 albums in 2009 sold more than 1M copies. Then at the end, it says 22. Which is it?

Either there's a typo with "12" in the first sentence, or the last sentence was supposed to read, "35 in 2006, 27 in 2007 and 22 in 2008". My guess is the latter, but it does make it confusing.

Based on our tracking of NLOTH last year, I would say the correct number is 12. And that's disheartening. A few came on late (like Susan Boyle) during the holidays. But U2's NLOTH was one of the top-selling albums of last year. So for all the crap about "poor sales", really, it continues to be the market. CD sales have dropped and will continue to drop. There will be the token few that will break out, but they are exceptions. For example, I highly doubt Boyle's follow-up will enjoy anywhere near the sales of her first release. Digital sales do help, but with blazing internet connections, it's so easy to get music anywhere. And once one has it, it's easily put on iPods, iPhones, Blackberries, etc., without a second thought. I do feel bad for new artists now who may have to contend with these poor sales.
 
Is there a typo here?

Of the 97,751 albums released in 2009, only 12 of them sold more than one million units last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The number of titles to reach one million units in previous years was 35 in 2006, 27 in 2008 and 22 in 2009

First, it says that 12 albums in 2009 sold more than 1M copies. Then at the end, it says 22. Which is it?

12 albums released in 2009 sold more than 1 million, but 22 albums hit the 1 million units sold mark in 2009, so I'll bet 10 of those 22 were released before 2009.
 
12 albums released in 2009 sold more than 1 million, but 22 albums hit the 1 million units sold mark in 2009, so I'll bet 10 of those 22 were released before 2009.

But the way the sentence is written doesn't suggest what you are saying. It says, "in previous years". The better way of saying this is that a total of 22 albums sold at least 1M copies in the U.S. in 2009, with 12 of those being released in 2009.

However, I can answer my own question. They are counting not only albums released in 2008, but catalog albums as well.

Here is the list of 22 albums in 2009 that sold 1M copies.

Rank - Sales - TITLE - Artist
01 - 3,216,988 - FEARLESS - Taylor Swift
02 - 3,103,828 - I DREAMED A DREAM - Susan Boyle
03 - 2,355,449 - NUMBER ONES - Michael Jackson
04 - 2,237,750 - THE FAME - Lady GaGa
05 - 2,207,202 - MY CHRISTMAS - Andrea Bocelli
06 - 1,823,435 - HANNAH MONTANA: THE MOVIE - Soundtrack
07 - 1,786,825 - THE E.N.D. (THE ENERGY NEVER DIES) - Black Eyed Peas
08 - 1,735,358 - RELAPSE - Eminem
09 - 1,514,758 - THE BLUEPRINT 3 - Jay-Z
10 - 1,397,693 - ONLY BY THE NIGHT - Kings Of Leon
11 - 1,368,352 - DARK HORSE - Nickelback
12 - 1,287,045 - THIS IS IT - Michael Jackson
13 - 1,282,260 - TWILIGHT - Soundtrack
14 - 1,273,413 - THRILLER - Michael Jackson
15 - 1,264,241 - THE FOUNDATION - Zac Brown Band
16 - 1,222,070 - CRAZY LOVE - Michael Buble
17 - 1,212,336 - TIME OF OUR LIVES EP - Miley Cyrus
18 - 1,199,969 - I AM…SASHA FIERCE - Beyonce
19 - 1,183,086 - PLAY ON - Carrie Underwood
20 - 1,154,814 - THE ESSENTIAL - Michael Jackson
21 - 1,129,896 - UNSTOPPABLE - Rascal Flatts
22 - 1,067,100 - NO LINE ON THE HORIZON - U2


As one can see, many of those were from other years. Only 12 of them were released in 2009. U2's NLOTH made the cut-off with just shy of 1.07M copies sold last year (in the U.S.). Worldwide, it had better sales (and most likely ranked in the top 5 - can anyone confirm?).
 
I haven't heard Nickelback's album, so no comment. I'm more curious about the Hannah Montanna crap. That girl CANNOT sing. I've seen that show and saw her sing - it was horrible. How that was a success is beyond my comprehension.

Anyway...

If I counted correctly, there are four Michael Jackson albums in that list. I read that prior to his death, Jackson's catalog albums would sell about 500K a year - which is a good total. But this is for all of his albums. Due to his sudden passing, four of his albums sold over 1M copies. If Jackson had not died, that would have meant that only 18 albums sold 1M copies or more last year!

With that in mind, and given the continued state of the economy, I predict 15 or fewer albums to sell 1M copies in the U.S. this year.
 
haha, 90% of everything in that list is fad garbage.

I mean, te fucking twilight soundtrack????

If Jacko hadn't died, thats 4 more down.

Seriously, that list is woeful. No wonder sales are down - it isnt itunes fault, it is that there is nothing remotely good to listen to
 
I haven't heard Nickelback's album, so no comment. I'm more curious about the Hannah Montanna crap. That girl CANNOT sing. I've seen that show and saw her sing - it was horrible. How that was a success is beyond my comprehension.

i found this a bit weird...

first of all, you don't need to hear the Nickelback album to have a comment, anyone with correctly functioning ears knows they're the worst band in the world. second of all, how can you not see how Hanna Montana would be a success? i agree with you, the music is terrible, but there's a massive market for it. i should know, i have an 11 year old sister.
 
how much has green days 21cb sold? wasn't that was just under 1 mill as of dec 31? and has it reached 1 mill yet? if anyone knows. just curiuous.
 
i found this a bit weird...

first of all, you don't need to hear the Nickelback album to have a comment, anyone with correctly functioning ears knows they're the worst band in the world. second of all, how can you not see how Hanna Montana would be a success? i agree with you, the music is terrible, but there's a massive market for it. i should know, i have an 11 year old sister.

There's a market for it because Disney MADE a market for it. Disney sometimes has a few missteps in their marketing (such as the current "Sorcerer's Apprentice" movie), but usually their marketing machine is one of the best. And they know how to market the shows on their channel. However, really look at that girl and listen to her. She's not cute and she sings horribly. The songs are horrific. It's little wonder that Miley Cyrus' current album is not doing well. Without the Disney Hannah Montanna brand pushing her, people realize how untalented she really is. At least with her aging, the Hannah stuff is gone (and I'm sure it will soon be replaced by some equivalent).
 

Thanks for this! :applaud:

Of that list, though, I think 4 or 5 of those albums were released in previous years. For the 2009 albums, U2 had the second or third best seller worldwide. I'm glad it sold as well as it could. It's a very strong album, even if there was no "Beautiful Day" or "Vertigo" power-house hit on it. It makes you wonder how much better the album would have sold if it could have generated that one big hit. :hmm:
 
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