HTDAAB will NOT hit #1 in the U.S. because...

[womanfish]

U2 and/or their management are STUPID! Or they just don't care about where they chart in the U.S. which i think would NOT be the case at least for Paul M. and Interscope.
I knew that there was going to be a limited edition of the album with a DVD, which I thank them very much for. But this will be treated like a seperate album from the regular edition (I am 98% sure) like the Best of 90-2000 treated the version with B-sides as a different album on the chart than the regular single disc version. They are making the special edition available on the 23rd, which means that all BIG U2 fans will most likely opt for the special edition. I think this could mean a chunk of sales between 50 and 100 thousand going to the special edition and being taken away from the regular version. Probably leaving U2 for a top 5 debut but definitely not number 1.

That said, I am looking forward to these bonus acoustic songs!!!

 

[beLIEve]

DVD + CD different than double CD?

Womanfish,

I just found out about the limited edition version, and yes, I remember how the double CD version of the "Best Of" was treated as a different CD on the charts. However, the HTDAAB limited edition still only contains one CD. This presents a different dilemna for Billboard...as they track music CD's on one chart and music DVD's on another. So, should the album sales be separated? Will the limited addition package show up on the DVD charts with 50K sales as a number one debut? If so, then does it actually show up again as a separate "special edition CD" as well? This would result in the limited edition sales showing up on two different charts, which would skew the overall sales if you add the DVD sales to the CD sales...

Maybe this is a weak argument, but if the limited edition was two CD's, then it would have to be treated like the "Best Of". However, since it's the same CD but with an additional DVD, then will Billboard be forced to chart HTDAAB as the #1 DVD of the week from the limited edition set...and then give the regular HTDAAB release credit for the CD sales? Wouldn't that be the only way Billboard could actually capture DVD and CD sales in an accurate manner? Then this would actually make a lot of marketing sense, as U2 could potentially chart #1 on the Album chart as well as the DVD chart. Thoughts?

 

[STING2]

U2 and/or their management are STUPID! Or they just don't care about where they chart in the U.S. which i think would NOT be the case at least for Paul M. and Interscope.
I knew that there was going to be a limited edition of the album with a DVD, which I thank them very much for. But this will be treated like a seperate album from the regular edition (I am 98% sure) like the Best of 90-2000 treated the version with B-sides as a different album on the chart than the regular single disc version. They are making the special edition available on the 23rd, which means that all BIG U2 fans will most likely opt for the special edition. I think this could mean a chunk of sales between 50 and 100 thousand going to the special edition and being taken away from the regular version. Probably leaving U2 for a top 5 debut but definitely not number 1.

That said, I am looking forward to these bonus acoustic songs!!!

This may not be the case necessarily. I noticed that RIAA has counted 1990-2000 regular and limited editions as one album when determining sales. Obviously, something would have to be set up where when either version is scanned, it has the same code.

 

[womanfish]

Re: Re: HTDAAB will NOT hit #1 in the U.S. because...

This may not be the case necessarily. I noticed that RIAA has counted 1990-2000 regular and limited editions as one album when determining sales. Obviously, something would have to be set up where when either version is scanned, it has the same code.

Sting2,
are you sure that's true? because i distinctly remember them both being on the chart and one having a platinum certification and one having a gold certification. Those are RIAA certifications, so i'm not sure. Where are you getting your info?

I think there me be a glimmer of hope with the second disc being a DVD. We'll see i guess. But you would think that just them being sold in different packaging at different prices may mean they need to have different coding.

Oh yeah, and beLIEve, I don't think that Billboard will put the U2 special edition on the DVD chart at all. I still think the album part will be treated as the main thing and the DVD just as a side bonus. If it were a live DVD with a bonus disc of some songs, then it would be a different story. And i don't think they'll split anything between charts. There must be some precident for this. I'm sure there have been some Cd's with DVD bonuses no?

 

[Popmartijn]

Re: Re: Re: HTDAAB will NOT hit #1 in the U.S. because...

I think there me be a glimmer of hope with the second disc being a DVD. We'll see i guess. But you would think that just them being sold in different packaging at different prices may mean they need to have different coding.

Oh yeah, and beLIEve, I don't think that Billboard will put the U2 special edition on the DVD chart at all. I still think the album part will be treated as the main thing and the DVD just as a side bonus. If it were a live DVD with a bonus disc of some songs, then it would be a different story. And i don't think they'll split anything between charts. There must be some precident for this. I'm sure there have been some Cd's with DVD bonuses no?

I tnhink that Billboard will treat the different editions as one on the chart, because the music content does not differ between the different formats. There has been precedents for this, I think most notably Eminem's last release (The Eminem Show). That one also came with a bonus DVD initially, but for the charts there was no difference with the non-DVD version. And no, that bonus DVD did not chart on the DVD chart (just as the bonus DVD for U2's The Best Of 1990-2000) did not chart on the DVD chart.

C ya!

Marty

 

[tkramer]

Does anyone think D. Child will pose a problem?

 

[jackboy]

all sounds a little complicated over there...

 

[womanfish]

i do think D. Child could pose a problem, especially around the holiday time, when parents buy kids horrible music just cause they recognize the name.

Popmartijn - was the Eminem cd/dvd called a "special edition" and priced differently?

 

[STING2]

Re: Re: Re: HTDAAB will NOT hit #1 in the U.S. because...

Sting2,
are you sure that's true? because i distinctly remember them both being on the chart and one having a platinum certification and one having a gold certification. Those are RIAA certifications, so i'm not sure. Where are you getting your info?

I think there me be a glimmer of hope with the second disc being a DVD. We'll see i guess. But you would think that just them being sold in different packaging at different prices may mean they need to have different coding.

Oh yeah, and beLIEve, I don't think that Billboard will put the U2 special edition on the DVD chart at all. I still think the album part will be treated as the main thing and the DVD just as a side bonus. If it were a live DVD with a bonus disc of some songs, then it would be a different story. And i don't think they'll split anything between charts. There must be some precident for this. I'm sure there have been some Cd's with DVD bonuses no?

If you go to the RIAA site, you'll notice that there is only one listing for the Gold and Platinum that 1990-2000 received. It was the 1980-1990 that has seperate certifications. www.riaa.com

 

[U2Fan101]

While I am and will follow this albums and singles' chart progress, I will not care if it debuts or peaks at No. 1 or No. 50. We all know who the better band is so it shouldn't matter

 

[Teta040]

U2Fan101, I wish I could agree. However, some of us care passionately about U2 having a #1 or top 5 debut in the US, as it will determine U2's cultural relevance in the yes of the al-important US MEdia in a big way. Esp after ATYCLB debuted at #2 with BD charting at #26 on the Top 40.

 

[Vox02]

. Esp after ATYCLB debuted at #2 with BD charting at #26 on the Top 40. [/B]

ATYCLB debuted at #3 and BDay was #21 on the Hot 100, no?

Vox

 

[Teta040]

OK, you're right, but you get the idea.

 

[Vox02]

Yes

 

[Danospano]

I think there's a good chance U2's new album will debut at #1. While it may be true that Eminem and Destiny's Child have releases the week before the 24th, it's also true that U2's last album sold over four million in the U.S. and constantly maintained strong sales. Eminem and Destiny's Child are strong acts with whom to share the bill, but U2 isn't history, yet. They're stronger than any rock band in the world, and this album is eagerly anticipated, whether people heard about it from forums like this, or from IPOD commericals.

Some people will say that because of their last few releases, the trend doesn't suggest a #1 week for the new release. I disagree due to the following assumptions. 1) The release of "Pop" in 1997 ruined their chances for a strong opening weekend along the lines of "Achung Baby" and "Zooropa". This album lost many longtime fans and they subsequently had to be convinced to give U2 another try. That isn't the case with "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb", because "ATYCLB" did so well and was well-received. This will compell plenty of people to buy it on opening weekend. Also, Beautiful Day was barely in rotation when the album was released. 2) The "Best of" packages would have debuted at the top had the original, first-week issues were single discs. Instead they opted for the limited addition with an extra disc of B-Sides which rose the price a few dollars and lead to #2 and #3 debuts respectively. This doesn't mean it was ensured they'd have debuted at the pennacle of the charts, but it is relevant in the analysis. 3) Never before has U2 staged such an expansive marketing campaign for their latest release. "Achtung Baby" rode on the success of The Joshua Tree and Rattle and Hum, but aside from MTV videos; there was nothing. "Zooropa": nothing. "Pop": Lots of hype in the mainstream media, and that worked, but with the "Best of" collections and "ATYCLB" there was minimal advertising compared to this new disc.

The word is out. It will be a huge opening weekend and there will be much rejoicing. Just you wait and see!

Go RED SOX!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[FullonEdge2]

Yes, the more that I analyze this, the more I'm thinking that not only will this album provide U2's biggest opening week ever, but it will top 500,000 copies sold in the U.S. at LEAST. Holiday season helps, and I don't think that many of the other artists releasing albums around the same time are going to necessarily "hurt" U2. Someone who is interested in the band is going to buy the Cd, not say they only have enough money for the DC album. The success of the last album combined with the hype for this one is only going to help.

BTW, kudos to the band for the Itunes commercial. I don't think they will gain many new younger fans through the radio anymore because they simply aren't played enough for the young generation. The commercial is possibly the most effective way of getting the song out there that they could have come up with. Even all my friends and my family have seen the commercial and they are intrigued.

Can't wait until November 23 to see how it turns out!

 

[barrett]

I think U2 will debut at number #1 with about 350,000 units in its first week and sell 3 million copies in the next 2 years in the US. Eminem will be a close second in his second week. It is amazing that Norah Jones sold over a million copies her first week.

 

[tkramer]

I think U2 will debut at number #1 with about 350,000 units in its first week and sell 3 million copies in the next 2 years in the US. Eminem will be a close second in his second week. It is amazing that Norah Jones sold over a million copies her first week.

I think to even hope for 3rd they will need 350K. This is the biggest week of the year and 350K for the new album would be dissapointing at best.

 

[womanfish]

I think people are not looking at my reasoning for doing this posting in the first place. I'm just saying that they wont be able to hit number one if Billboard/soundscan decide to split the sales up between the normal and special edition versions of the album. And U2 will need to top 450k to even hope for number one.

 

[FullonEdge2]

They will have to top 500,000 at least, and I think they will do this.

And no, I think U2 would know better than release it in such a way as they would know the sales would be split up.

 

[tkramer]

I think people are not looking at my reasoning for doing this posting in the first place. I'm just saying that they wont be able to hit number one if Billboard/soundscan decide to split the sales up between the normal and special edition versions of the album. And U2 will need to top 450k to even hope for number one.

Oh yeah, forgot about that...
I need to stay on target.

Personally I think they will lump special and normal editions together, as the MUSICAL content is deemed the same. If one had 11 b-sides on it they would rethink it.

 

[womanfish]

I agree that lumping them together makes sense. But no one has ever accuesed Soundscan or RIAA of making sense.