HTDAAB will hit #1 in the USA because... - U2 Feedback

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Old 10-22-2004, 06:21 AM   #1
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HTDAAB will hit #1 in the USA because...

I think U2 have a better than good shot of hitting number 1.

My reasons:

1. M&M isn't in their catagory

2. D Child isn't in their catagory

3. Vertigo is healthy, if not fantastic, on the charts (but certainly better off than BD at this point.

4. Download sales are very, very good.

5. I-tunes commerical is 90% positive buzz from what I can see. And Apple is running this spot A LOT. I've seen it like eight times already, and I'm not even looking for it.

6. Presales are head scratchingly high. We don't have numbers for it, but Amazon.com has had the album in their top 20 for a month now, and in the top 10 for over a week, and in the top 5 for the last few days. THIS IS A MONTH OUT STILL.

-----------

My guess is that if U2 can do 700,000-750,000 they could pull it off. Yes this would be a record for them, but it IS being released on THE week for music sales in the USA.

Just trying to keep the faith...
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Old 10-22-2004, 11:17 AM   #2
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whoa 700 to 750k?!?!? that would be 300,000 more than ATYCLB. I highly doubt it. If all versions of the album are counted together by soundscan, then I can see it MAYBE selling 500 to 550k. Like I said, if they ARE counted seperate, you're looking at probably a drop of 50 to 100k being subtracted off that total because of sales of the special edition.

500-550k would put it into contention for the number one spot, but even then not a lock. Eminem most likely will sell around a million his first week and then drop about 50% in his second week putting him around that same total. This will be about as close as the election!!!
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Old 10-22-2004, 11:28 AM   #3
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you forgot that this album will rock everyone's world
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Old 10-22-2004, 11:39 AM   #4
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700,000 would be pushing it. I'm thinking in the 600,000 range.

Say, we should start a betting contest or something for first week sales!

Did anyone else see the Sun article (I think it was the sun article) where it says the label is expecting it to sell around 3 million copies in the first week Of course that means world sales, but that kind of prediction would have to mean in the range of 1 million in the U.S. Do you think they're serious?
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Old 10-22-2004, 12:36 PM   #5
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Honestly I think M&M has a good shot at 1 million. His sales won't drop 50% because the Nov. 23rd week is the biggest shopping week in the USA. So expect a 20-35% drop, (history tells us %50+ won't happen) which means U2 HAS to sell well over 500,000...

Man, you guys are starting to make me rethink what our boys can do...
I'm going to stick my neck out and stay with 700,000. KEEP THA' FAITH!!!
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Old 10-22-2004, 05:41 PM   #6
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I'm thinking that the people saying 3 million in the first week are making the classic "albums shipped/albums sold" mistake. They are probably shipping out 3 million albums worldwide (1 million in the U.S.) the first week. I see no possible way that they would all be sold. Maybe half that.
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Old 10-22-2004, 06:12 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by womanfish
I'm thinking that the people saying 3 million in the first week are making the classic "albums shipped/albums sold" mistake. They are probably shipping out 3 million albums worldwide (1 million in the U.S.) the first week. I see no possible way that they would all be sold. Maybe half that.
POP's initial shipment figure prior to its release was 4.5 million! Of course, it would struggle to sell all of that over the next year as well as selling another 1 to 2 million beyond that initial shipment.
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Old 10-22-2004, 06:48 PM   #8
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This will be interesting to watch, to say the least.

U2 certainly has a better reputation right now than they did back in 2000 before ATYCLB was released. Remember, they had just come off of Pop which (like it or not) left a bad taste in the mouth of the general public. U2 was considered by some to be "has beens" at that point. It was a very long climb for them out of that hole.

Now they are in much better shape. ATYCLB/Elevation Tour were huge successes, Bono has been more in the political spotlight than I believe ever in his career (and he's wisely not taking political "sides"), and the first song is clearly already a mild hit.

They COULD be #1...it won't be easy, but it very well could happen. Much more likely now than in 2000.
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Old 10-23-2004, 06:32 AM   #9
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MUCH more likely than ATYCLB. Other than that, well, who knows? I certainly hope they pull it off.
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