I have been a lurker on this page for years in fact I remember when they first created Peeling off those Dollar Bills (seems like it was around ATYCLB).
Seeing all of these names really brings back memories.
I remember being so angry when U2 failed to reach number 1 with ATYCLB. And how happy I was to see it hang in on the charts forever and seem to have an endless number of rebounds. During this time I joined the Military and was gone to Boot Camp / Training for 6 months and when I started checking the charts I was shocked to see it still on the Billboard 200. I hope we see legs like this for NLOTH.
Joel Tanner, aka Elvis (the creator/founder of Interference.com) and I talked about a forum just for charts. I came up with this name, based on, of course, a U2 lyric (in "Bullet..."). It just seemed appropriate for this forum.
I was the original moderator, but then due to other issues, left here for a while. Unhappily, there was a lot of petty things on Interference at the time.
Fortunately, that's all gone and the site is run by others. But some of the mods are still here (you couldn't pay me to be a mod now).
ATYCLB did have incredible chart legs. Sadly 9/11 did give the album a boost. People found comfort in a few things at that time, one being U2's music. "Stuck..." was released right around 9/11 and while it wasn't a huge hit (only peaking in the 50's on the Hot 100), it was a song about letting go and moving on - an idea the American people seemed to comprehend. We couldn't change what had happened, and we'll never forget, but we also had to move forward. As a result of that song, ATYCLB rose right back up the charts. Add the Super Bowl performance in early 2002 and ATYCLB saw another boost. Then the Grammies - and another boost. All those boosts allowed ATYCLB to sell over 4.2M copies in the U.S. and 12M worldwide. Big numbers given it was the illegal download era!
HTDAAB didn't have some of those boosts (and while I love to see U2's albums sell well, I'm very happy that there wasn't a reason like 9/11 for the album to linger extra long). But HTDAAB did last two Christmases on the charts, just as ATYCLB and AB did (in the SoundScan era). Bono's said that it's a goal to have the album in the charts (i.e., Billboard Top 100 albums) for two Christmases. And there's truth to that - because of the album lingers that long, that means it's been in the Top 200 albums all year (and possibly Top 100). That's quite an achievement - to have an album be one of the top selling new albums all year long.
Not sure how NLOTH will do. Given the chillier response to GOYB and based on the 30 second clips, I can actually see this being a better and more accessible album than "Pop" (yes, I went there!
) but not the type of album that crosses over and generates a big hit or two to stay in the public's mind. Those 30 second clips sounded great, but not exactly like something one would hear on the radio. U2 have almost always gone against the mainstream in sound, and this could work for them. Trouble is, in the past, they were young and people wanted to hear them. Age does play a role. Do people really want to hear a group nearing 50 play rock? Radiohead members aren't that young, but as Radiohead never really broke out the way U2 did, they can remain that "little group" in the background. But a group of U2's size may eventually suffer the Rolling Stone effect - an album may be brilliant, but people may only want to hear the "greatests hits".
I'm hoping though that there are a few great classics on NLOTH that radio stations do play and that join the upper echelons of U2's classics. Even if the album only goes 2x Platinum in the U.S., it would be great to know that some brilliant music is on that album.
For now, my prediction is a #1 opening and first week sales somewhere around the "Pop" - ATYCLB range (350 - 430K) in the U.S. I'll be happier if it's higher. I also predict the album to only reach 2x Platinum mark (U.S.). This, of course, could change if *something* happens (radio actually plays U2, there's another commercial or some sort of promotion). Based on ATYLB and HTDAAB, it seems a big push was given for the first song and that was about it. Given that GOYB hasn't received tons of love yet, maybe that big push will be for song #2 or #3, but if not, then I think the album will be bought by bigger fans and ignored by everyone else. Shame.