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Old 05-16-2011, 09:43 AM   #961
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Originally Posted by Moggio View Post

2. Regardless of the fact that they returned to Chicago in 2008 only 10 months later, they STILL should have grossed $4-$5 million when returning, after grossing nearly $10 million there in 2007.
Well, if thats the case, why didn't LIVE NATION book the Police to play Wrigley Field in Chicago again for the summer of 2008?

They booked the SINGLE arena show because they KNEW that a return to the market was likely to only bring in $1.5 million to $2 million in gross.

Again if the Police had instantly soldout the two Wrigley Field shows in Chicago grossing $9 million, then you could make the arguement that a 3rd show grossing 4-5 million would be possible, but thats not what happened. First show sold fast, second show slowly filled up. When that happens, you know demand has nearly been met.

Thats why U2 DID NOT return to Massachusetts for a 3rd stadium show. By your logic above, they should have. They played two shows to 138,000 people, but the second show sold slowly meaning they were coming very close to reaching most of the demand in the market at the stadium level. A third stadium show would not have worked. A return date in an arena though like the Police did would have worked, but U2 are only playing stadiums in 360, so that was not possible.
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Old 05-16-2011, 09:57 AM   #962
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He never does. For the past 15 pages or so, Maoil will write that Muse are not an arena draw in South America. He/ other have even posted what boxscores are available as proof of this statement. Then, like clockwork, Moggio will respond to that with "Muse are a stadium/arena draw in some markets". Instead of providing some facts to back this claim, he will write that they have sold X albums since X year, which means that their demand is that of an arena act in South America .....LOL

Then Maoil entertains this, for some reason, and will point out the FACT that their album was nowhere to be found on the South American charts. How does Moggio respond to this FACT......with something along the lines of it doesn't matter. With Moggio it's always Facts vs his theories. It really is pretty funny because he is wrong most of the time but will always write that he is almost always right. All of his predictions come with several "but if" clauses to cover his butt when it turns out he was wrong....see his $105 million predictions for NA leg 1 as an example ( apparently he was predicting just U2's gross and not the "tours" gross......LOL
The following deserves another mention.

All of his predictions come with several "but if" clauses to cover his butt when it turns out he was wrong....see his $105 million predictions for NA leg 1 as an example ( apparently he was predicting just U2's gross and not the "tours" gross......LOL

Also, if you look at his posting record, this "distinction" does not occur until AFTER the results have come in!
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Old 05-16-2011, 10:55 AM   #963
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Ladies and Gentlemen, here is the date and posting when MOGGIO's famous 10% rule about U2's openers was created:

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The 360 tour will gross NOWHERE NEAR $700 million in ticket sales. 50 shows are planned this year. When it concludes in the fall, the 360 tour will have grossed $600-$650 million in ticket sales from 94 shows - and a good 10% of that should be subtracted from the total since, U2 had some large openers (Muse, The Black Eyed Peas, etc.) bringing in $$$ too.
UKMIX - Forums - Chart Analysis - U2 360 Tour (page 11)

January 7, 2010

Prior to that date, MOGGIO never mentioned openers or things such as a 10% rule that needed to be substracted from U2 360 tour results.

NOTE: This is a full two months after all the results were in for U2's 44 shows in 2009!
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Old 05-17-2011, 05:53 AM   #964
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nWhat are you talking about?! You did not prove ANYTHING.
No, what are YOU talking about?! You either must not be reading this thread or you're being dishonest? Because I've hammered home my points with compelling evidence AND proof time and time again...
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Old 05-17-2011, 06:03 AM   #965
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He never does.
I always bring compelling evidence and proof in ANY debate. You just decide to ignore it, as usual. You're almost as bad as Maoil.

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For the past 15 pages or so, Maoil will write that Muse are not an arena draw in South America. He/ other have even posted what boxscores are available as proof of this statement. Then, like clockwork, Moggio will respond to that with "Muse are a stadium/arena draw in some markets". Instead of providing some facts to back this claim, he will write that they have sold X albums since X year, which means that their demand is that of an arena act in South America .....LOL
What the hell are you talking about? I've provided plenty of evidence showing that it's extremely likely Muse's draw has increased in South America in the past few years, since NOT ONE other market that they've played on earth has seen a decrease in their draw since then.


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Then Maoil entertains this, for some reason, and will point out the FACT that their album was nowhere to be found on the South American charts.

He didn't say that. He just said it wasn't near the top of the charts. Well, guess what? For example, Muse has NEVER had a Platinum album in the US, yet they're a top arena draw there.


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How does Moggio respond to this FACT......with something along the lines of it doesn't matter. With Moggio it's always Facts vs his theories. It really is pretty funny because he is wrong most of the time but will always write that he is almost always right.

It's funny how you're trying to diminish what I've said by generalizing my points, yet you still can't answer or respond to my initial questions that I had for you PAGES ago.


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All of his predictions come with several "but if" clauses to cover his butt when it turns out he was wrong....see his $105 million predictions for NA leg 1 as an example ( apparently he was predicting just U2's gross and not the "tours" gross......LOL
Total BS. Most of my predictions are right. And regarding the first North American 360 tour leg, ONCE AGAIN, when I made the prediction, it had to do with U2 and only U2 BECAUSE THEIR OPENERS WEREN'T ANNOUNCED AT THAT POINT.
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Old 05-17-2011, 06:09 AM   #966
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Well, Nickleback grossed over $30 million on tour in the United States and Canada in 2006. In 2010, Muse's gross was LESS than 70% of that figure without adjusting for inflation! Muse have yet to reach the level Nickleback were in the United States/Canada back in 2006!
So what? Maybe that's because Muse didn't play anywhere near as many shows as Nickelback during comparative touring cycles in North America. And even if that wasn't the case, it doesn't matter because that's NOT THE POINT. The point is a) Nickelback are NOWHERE near the draw they were then compared to now and b) they only opened for The Stones during ONE show on the A Bigger Bang tour, in Auckland, New Zealand of all places. Yet you try to throw them on a list of openers for the A Bigger Bang tour, as if they opened several shows and heavily contributed to The Stones' gross.
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Old 05-17-2011, 06:19 AM   #967
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Well, if thats the case, why didn't LIVE NATION book the Police to play Wrigley Field in Chicago again for the summer of 2008?

You're not understanding what I'm getting at.


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They booked the SINGLE arena show because they KNEW that a return to the market was likely to only bring in $1.5 million to $2 million in gross.
THIS is what I was getting at. And that that return is VERY low and shocking.

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Again if the Police had instantly soldout the two Wrigley Field shows in Chicago grossing $9 million, then you could make the arguement that a 3rd show grossing 4-5 million would be possible, but thats not what happened. First show sold fast, second show slowly filled up. When that happens, you know demand has nearly been met.
Their Chicago return should've been MUCH stronger. PERIOD.

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Thats why U2 DID NOT return to Massachusetts for a 3rd stadium show. By your logic above, they should have. They played two shows to 138,000 people, but the second show sold slowly meaning they were coming very close to reaching most of the demand in the market at the stadium level. A third stadium show would not have worked. A return date in an arena though like the Police did would have worked, but U2 are only playing stadiums in 360, so that was not possible.
That's not why they're not returning to Boston this year. U2 need to skip Boston to help fill up the NYC/NJ return. Without Boston's help, the NYC/NJ return would be roughly 2/3-3/4 full...hence strategic scheduling.
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Old 05-17-2011, 06:23 AM   #968
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The following deserves another mention.

All of his predictions come with several "but if" clauses to cover his butt when it turns out he was wrong....see his $105 million predictions for NA leg 1 as an example ( apparently he was predicting just U2's gross and not the "tours" gross......LOL

Also, if you look at his posting record, this "distinction" does not occur until AFTER the results have come in!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maoilbheannacht View Post
Ladies and Gentlemen, here is the date and posting when MOGGIO's famous 10% rule about U2's openers was created:

UKMIX - Forums - Chart Analysis - U2 360 Tour (page 11)

January 7, 2010
AGAIN, of course I was predicting U2's gross and not the tour's gross at that point. Why? Because U2'S OPENERS HAD NOT BEEN ANNOUNCED YET. DUH!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maoilbheannacht View Post
Prior to that date, MOGGIO never mentioned openers or things such as a 10% rule that needed to be substracted from U2 360 tour results.

NOTE: This is a full two months after all the results were in for U2's 44 shows in 2009!
So I'm obliged to automatically discuss U2's openers the second they're announced? Why are you even bringing this up and why does this matter?
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Old 05-17-2011, 07:01 AM   #969
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That's not why they're not returning to Boston this year. U2 need to skip Boston to help fill up the NYC/NJ return. Without Boston's help, the NYC/NJ return would be roughly 2/3-3/4 full...hence strategic scheduling.
So why have a show in Baltimore?

Perhaps it's as simple as nowhere in the Boston area was available.

and why does it matter anyhow?
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Old 05-17-2011, 08:31 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by Moggio

What the hell are you talking about? I've provided plenty of evidence showing that it's extremely likely Muse's draw has increased in South America in the past few years, since NOT ONE other market that they've played on earth has seen a decrease in their draw since then.

For example, Muse has NEVER had a Platinum album in the US, yet they're a top arena draw there.
This is classic!! So, you know so much about the concert industry, right? You have told us time and time again how you have these "formulas" that take into account past demand and current/overall ALBUM sales!

So, Muse don't sell a lot of albums in the US or in South America but they are a top arena draw. So either they are not a top arena draw or your formulas are BS. In one statement album sales do not determine demand and in the other statement you say that album sales DO determine demand, which one is it Moggio?

Also, did you really write that because Muse's demand has increased in other markets that this means their demand must have gone up in markets that they haven't played, like South America????? Thats really objective & scientific! LOL

You have yet to provide ANY compelling evidence for most of your "theories".
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Old 05-17-2011, 09:15 AM   #971
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Hey Moggio,

If you deem openers so important why did you made gross predictions before openers were announced?
This is obvious an excuse to cover your butt now. And YOU KNOW IT

I know it´s very embarassing for you but the truth is Maoil´s predictions were way more accurate than yours.

You´re full of shit man. And YOU KNOW IT. Just give it up.
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Old 05-17-2011, 09:19 AM   #972
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since this thread has long since simply become about bickering, i see no reason for the thread to remain open. also, it is near 1000 replies.

discussion of the 360 tour may continue in any of the existing threads, but the arguing and drama from this thread cannot spill into other threads. thanks.
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