any predictions for Best of Charting?

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Remember, Soundscan does not count each disc, only RIAA does, so if you say 500,000(counting both disc) Soundscan will only count the package and say 250,000. Soundscan counts the weekly sales to consumers, RIAA counts the shipment of the record to stores, usually on a monthly basis depending on sales.
 
Sting, let me start off by saying i believe you. But it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If RIAA counts a double disc set as 2 units, then shouldn't Soundscan be in line with that. And the barcode on the disc report 2 units sold instead of one? I mean, when Billboard gives a list of the best selling albums of all time, they go with RIAA numbers not Soundscan, even though Soundscan is what they use on a weekly basis for the charts. I would think it would be easier if the two just matched up.

I also think it's crap that they split up the normal and special edition best of's as two different entities. This pretty much sabotages first week numbers because all the so-so fans just buy the normal edition cause it's cheaper and all of the big fans who buy the album in the first week get the special edition. The numbers are split and the chart showing really suffers.

Weren't the first week numbers for best of 80-90 something like #2 and #20? If those would be combined they might just make a number 1.
 
Sting2, I too believe you ;). I hadn't thought of that, but you're right and considering this could hurt U2's chart stance in the first week.

Womanfish is also right in pushing the idea of combining the RIAA and Soundscan as a determinent of sales. Maybe the reason they don't do so is because they don't really care....because you know.....it doesnt' really matter. It's just record sales.
 
I would not combine RIAA with Soundscan and here is why. U2 will most likely ship 1 million copies of the best of....1990-2000 before the album is even released on November 5. 1 million copies will have been purchased by record stores and others that sell the album to meet the upcoming demand from consumers for that album. There might not be another shippment of the album to stores for several months depending on how well the first shipment of around a million copies sells to consumers. So you can't have a weekly chart based on the shipment of albums(RIAA), because sometimes no more albums are shipped after the release date. That happened with REM's album last album that dropped off the billboard 200 after only 10 weeks on chart, yet still went GOLD(500,000) sold mainly because thats how much was shipped before the album was released. Remember, once it is shipped, as far as the artist and record company are concerned, it is an album sold. Its in the hands of the retail outlet and up to them to sell the product and make their own profit.

To sum up, shipment figures are used for total sales of an album because they are in fact just that, total sales to consumers and distributers. Soundscan represents total sales to consumers only and does not represent 100% of total sales to consumers but is very close, about 95%. An album is shipped to stores and then put on sale. Soundscan tracks the sale of this initial shipment and anymore shipments and compiles that sales info and activity on a weekly chart. More albums are shipped by the record company, as the retail outlets order more as their stocks of the album run out. But shipments happen on a irregular basis and sometimes not again if the album does not sell well. Sales to consumers tracked by Soundscan happen every day.

I agree with you though that I don't like the idea of counting each disc in the package which is what RIAA does. They do it because double albums are often worth nearly double the price of a single album sometimes and are trying to represent the success in the level of money being made from the sale of each package. A good example is Pink Floyds the WALL which has only sold 11.5 million copies in the USA, but because it is a two disc set, is certified for 23 million in sales. The WALL album cost as much as two albums and has certainly generated sales in money worth the sale of 23 million albums, But only 11.5 million "2 disc album sets" have been sold.

Still, I wish they would just count each package instead of each disc in the package. I'm more interested in the number of people that have purchased the album rather than the money made from each sale. Still, its easy enough to determine how many people have bought the album just by dividing the number of disc in the certified sales level, ex. 23 divided by 2 equals 11.5 for THE WALL.

Best Of....1980-1990/B-sides entered the chart at #2 while the single disc version entered the chart at #45. I wish soundscan would combine the two, but they won't because of the different prices and slightly different product. This is what always happens when artist release two different versions of an album at the same time.

But remember, this is a Best of........1990-2000 who's sales will be measured in years rather than weeks. Best ofs are albums of longjevity, not that initial sales burst you see with brand new product. I actually do not find the weekly sales of best of.... nearly as interesting as the sales of a brand new studio album with ALL new original material. Fact is, most U2 fans will probably not run out and buy this although the hardcore crowd will. Fact is, we already have nearly every song on this Best of....... . Best Of's, after the Die Hards like me and others buy the album, might be a good estimation of popularity among NON-fans of U2. I know that sounds a bit ironic because what exactly is the definition of a fan. This is different from a brand new Studio album like ATYCLB where every U2 fan, die hard or casual, and even "non-fans" might purchase the album. Its rather ironic that most people who will buy this "best of..." will be "die hards" or "non-fans" while most of the casual and moderate fans will not feel the need to. The only exception to this I would say would be if "Electical Storm" was a huge hit, but clearly its not a huge hit in the USA(so far) so I think its going to be the "die hards" and the "non-fans" purchasing this album mainly.
 
Did I miss something? I thought Shania Twain was releasing her new album, "Up" the same week as U2's GH? How far back did she move the release?
 
Hello,

There are a few things I want to point out for clarification:
1. AFAIK, the single CD version will be released on 12 November in the USA. So the first week there will only be the 2CD Ltd. Edition. So for a 1st week debut there will be no impact of another edition being available. The next week, there will be 2 versions available, but then the 1st week figures will be published and preserved for posterity.

2. In 1998, U2 sold about 200,000 copies of the first Best Of. At that time it was the best first week sales of a compilation album by a group. Of course, The Beatles crushed that figure 2 years later, but it does point out that the first Best Of did extremely well, that we might not expect equal or higher numbers, but that it is not unthinkable.
I personally still think TBO1990-2000 can have equal, if not better, success as TBO1980-1990. The mid-Nineties were not U2's most commercially successful period, so maybe the new Best Of can entice consumers to buy the album because they didn't buy the original album when it was released. Many may think Pop isn't that good of an album, but when its best songs are on a compilation album, together with other great U2 songs, they may want to buy that album. It will give them the opportunity to have the best songs of that period without having to listen to 'lesser' tracks (this is reasoning from a casual music listener POV, not a fan POV). In short, the standard Best Of-BS also applies here.

3. Others are right that the scope of this album is not weeks, but years. From the Billboard Pop Catalog Chart dated 2 November 2002 (top 20 only):
-5 James Taylor - Greatest Hits *11
-7 Bob Seger - Greatest Hits *5
-9 Def Leppard - Greatest Hits (Vault) *3
-12 Abba - Greatest Hits (Gold) *6
-14 Ken Chesney - Greatest Hits *2
-16 Bon Jovi - Crossroads *4
-17 Bob Marley - Legend *10
-18 Enya - The Best Of Enya *2
(* indicates how many times the compilation album has hit platinum)

C ya!

Marty
 
To sum up!!

1. Best Of 1980-1990 sold 237,500 copies in its first week back in in 1998, a record selling by the time for a Best Of Album ( SoundScan era ).

2. My prediction for Best Of 90-00 : 200,000-250,000 copies and #3 or #4 in US.

3. ATYCLB? Seeing the catalog chart it will probably enters at Top 5? :eyebrow:

Vox
 
Vox02 said:
To sum up!!

1. Best Of 1980-1990 sold 237,500 copies in its first week back in in 1998, a record selling by the time for a Best Of Album ( SoundScan era ).

2. My prediction for Best Of 90-00 : 200,000-250,000 copies and #3 or #4 in US.

3. ATYCLB? Seeing the catalog chart it will probably enters at Top 5? :eyebrow:

Vox

Hello,

I will not totally disagree with your first 2 points (although I do want to point out the TBO1980-1990's debut was a record selling Best Of... album by a group, as individual artists had had higher debuts with their Best Of's).
However, ATYCLB will debut much, much lower on the Pop Catalog chart. In August ATYCLB fell off the Billboard 200 chart, around that time the #200 album sold about 5500 copies. Now, even if the decline in sales was very low and ATYCLB still sells around 4000 copies a week up to November, that still means the album will debut around #60, if not lower on the Pop Catalog chart. The top Pop Catalog albums sell a lot each week,. Should Billboards policy be changed to include catalog albums on the regular album chart, then the top 5 catalog albums would easily chart in the top 100 and the top 30 catalog albums would all earn a spot on the Billboard 200 chart. As ATYCLB is not on the 'regular' album chart for many weeks, it will certainly not debut in the top 30. Sad but true.

C ya!

Marty
 
I've just been to www.hitsdailydouble.com and I have some interesting information.

Apparently, Nirvana's new album was not released today, nor was Eminem, Christina Aguilera, or Nick Carter.

According to 'hits', the only Top 40 new releases this week were, Santana, Foo Fighters, Rod Stewart, Kelly Rowland, 3LW, and Field Mob.

Does this mean that all of those aformentioned albums will be released next week with the U2 disc? If so, I think we'll be lucky if they crack the Top 10. :censored:

Does ANYONE know what happened?

Were all album releases postponed one week? That would certainly make sense.
 
Not too many Kurt fans in Peeling Off from some of the remarks :ohmy:

I don't have any calculated predictions, but I predict the Foos new cd will hold over time. Personally, I don't think Nirvana's Greatest Hits will do too well. I base this only off the fact that the tracklist is pretty average. If some people on the forum as a whole like to complain about U2's poor choices on some of the songs omitted, they should see what some Nirvana fans think of their one-disc Hits. It has only one unrealeased song "You Know You're Right", and a mediocre-to-above average fourteen song playlist, according to diehards. From some fellow diehard Nirvana fans I've talked to, I get the general mood that it could be stronger. I predict U2 may enter below Nirvana, but in the long run they should <Given to Fly> "rise above".

Of course, Nirvana does have several positive factors:
1. the Greatest Hits "Nirvana"
2. Kurt's published diaries book "Journal"
3. and former Nirvana drummer Dave Grohl and his Foo Fighters released "One By One" last week.

....and one last edit
My best friend and biggest Nirvana fan I know of in this Midwest predicts that the mediocre tracklisting is possibly because Nirvana may have a Box Set released in the future. That tracklisting would be incredible, especially if it includes any rarer gems than their existing "Singles" box set.
 
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I find it interesting that no one here has mentioned the fact that Pearl Jam is coming out with a new album on Nov. 12. Of course PJs popularity is not what it used to be, but that first week will be a strong one. Best of 1990-2000 may only have one week in the top 10. I love the art work for the album though and there was a big add for it in the new Rolling Stone with Christina on the cover that I just got in the mail today. It says the VHS/DVD of the Best of...1990-2000 with all the video's and more comes out December 10!
 
I've been listening to the new Pearl Jam album for about a month, actually. It's got a lot of great material. The album will definitely debut in the Top 5 (I'm guessing at #3). I think nobody's really mentioned it though because we're all more concerned about where the Best Of will chart in its first week, rather than in its second.
 
Danospano said:
I've just been to www.hitsdailydouble.com and I have some interesting information.

Apparently, Nirvana's new album was not released today, nor was Eminem, Christina Aguilera, or Nick Carter.

According to 'hits', the only Top 40 new releases this week were, Santana, Foo Fighters, Rod Stewart, Kelly Rowland, 3LW, and Field Mob.

Does this mean that all of those aformentioned albums will be released next week with the U2 disc? If so, I think we'll be lucky if they crack the Top 10. :censored:

Does ANYONE know what happened?

Were all album releases postponed one week? That would certainly make sense.

Danospano,
Santana, Foos, Rod Stewart, etc.... are all on the chart this week, as Santana debuted at number 1. This means these albums were released LAST week. Nirvana, Eminem, Chritina and Nick albums were released this week and will be on next weeks chart. So everything is on schedule. U2's is released on the 5th, but won't be on the chart until the following week.
 
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With all those CDs, I would be utterly shocked if Pearl Jam made it to #3. I would be speechless, in fact.

Justin Timberlake and Eminem alone will CERTAINLY sell more. I'd wager a guess that in their second week, at the very least, U2 and Shania will sell more than PJ.

I don't even see them in the top 5. And I like the new stuff.
 
I went the local corporate, record chain and looked at the newest cds. Here are my impressions:

The Nirvana cd is lame. It only has the aforementioned 14 songs, and doesn't include some of the memorable tracks. Now, I say this a causal fan of Nirvana. I don't care much for them, but I still noticed that several key song weren't on the album.

Nick Carter wasn't being pushed as much as you might think. Remember Backstreet Boys' last cd? The Greatest Hits collection? Remember how nobody cared? I think his album is going to disappear from the radar screen in less than a month.

8 Mile: Containing, what? Two or three songs by Eminem? That's it? I don't think it will place ahead of U2 in the coming weeks, because most of the other songs are performances by unknown/little know musicians.

Santana: It looks like the song "Game of Love" is here to stay. They are playing it everywhere and I think it could hold on to the Top 10 for a few weeks.
 
I remember back in the day when the opening week for Pearl Jams Vs. was over 900,000 copies, and that was back when not every store had soundscan tracking installed. The following year in 1994, Vitalogy did 877,000 units in its first week. No Code only did 300,000 though, and Yield was about the same. I can't remember the numbers for Binaural.
 
No Code was around 450,000. I've read that exact data many times in Yield era press releases. Yield actually was the one that sold some 300,000+ it's first week. I checked Billboard the week Binaural came out and its sales were 226,000 after rounding.
 
STING2 said:
Best of 1990-2000 may only have one week in the top 10.


This is very possible - and even likely. At most, it would only be there for 2 weeks.

However, do not worry.

At this time of year, CD sales boom. The week before Christmas, the top 50 (!) albums could sell close to 100,000 copies! Recall what ATYCLB did a few years ago. It too only spent 2 weeks in the Top 10 initially, but it had sales of over 100,000 copies for 9 consecutive weeks - bouncing around in the Top 25. These days, an album at #25 at any other time of year is lucky to sell 40,000 copies. But in Nov. and Dec., that album could sell close to 100,000 copies.

Therefore, don't just watch the chart numbers - sales are key here. Each week there will be an onslaught of new albums released, so the "Best Of" may indeed drop bigger than anticipated - but its sales may still be very strong.
 
I've been doing some more thinking about the Best of 1990-2000 and I really think now this new best of... will only do half the sales of Best of....1980-1990. After the die-hards buy it, it will be up to the "non-fans" or "very casual U2 fan" to make this album sell. So what songs on this new Best of...1990-2000 are its selling points. I can only think of 6 songs that have a selling point behind them, and only 3 of them are really strong.

Mysterious Ways
One
Even Better Than the Real Thing
HMTMKMKM
Beautiful Day
Stuck........

POP and Zooropa were mainly bought by strong fans at the moment of their release. These two albums have not sold well at all since their first years, and radio airplay here in the USA has been almost non-existent for the songs on these two albums. The passenger album is in the same boat. Electrical Storm has already peaked in the USA airplay charts. I now understand why they included Beautiful Day and Stuck..... because without them, most people might skip it and simply buy Achtung Baby.

Of the 6 songs above only 3 are really strong. Even Better Than The Real Thing recieved strong airplay in 1992, but how often does it get played on USA radio today? Same with HMTMKMKM, which even some casual U2 fans might have forgotten about despite its strong chart success in 1995. Stuck.....never got above the 50s on the HOT 100, but it did when the Grammy. Its sales potential is mixed. The really strong songs popularity wise are: Beautiful Day, Mysterious Ways, and One. All these songs were big hits and continue to have a significant volume of airplay for songs that are no longer being promoted.

I think all the songs are great on the album, its just that the commercial potential of most of them is not great. I think will see Best of 1990-2000 do about 50% of the business that Best of 1980-1990. We might be well below 200,000 the first week as well. Although the diehards will be out there, demand even among that group will be less, because The B-sides selection is not nearly as impressive as it was for Best of 1980-1990. Most of the songs on the B-sides 1980-1990 had become unavailable or fully gone out of print. It addition most of the B-sides of 1980-1990 were original songs rather than remixes of A sides. I would not be surprise if Best of 1990-2000 only did 120,000 copies its first week.
 
Gosh that would be a pity....but also quite likely....
I say it will sell between 160,000 and 220,000 - Getting it either #6 or #7.

If Electrical Storm has gotten in the Top 50 radio play...then there would be more interest. Real pity if you ask me. Personally I reckon they should've waited at least another album before they put this out.

Anyway, here's hoping.

God Bless.
WHYWHY.
 
STING 2, "EBTTRT" and "UTEOTW" both still get some airplay on standard format rock stations. I heard both songs while on the big island of Hawaii for three days. So there's 6 songs from the new compilation that still get a good amount of airplay. I don't think HMTMKMKM really gets played much these days....

However, look at it this way. This new album has songs from POP and Zooropa, albums that many fans didn't pick up. Then there's the group that has some of the albums, but haven't heard the new mixes, so they'll pick up the compilation. Meanwhile, "Electrical Storm" is growing on the charts and there's a chance that "Hands" could also become a hit.

By your logic, half of the first Best Of wasn't that popular. Here's the songs that still get played today regularly:

SBS
NYD
Pride
With Or Without You
Streets
Still
Desire

That's like less than the new album, so I wouldn't count it out of the running yet. It's a guarantee that it won't sell as much as the last, but I believe that it can come mighty close.
 
Well thats 7 songs that get played all the time for 1980-1990 vs. the 6 I listed for 1990-2000. In addition for 1980-1990, you forgot "I Will Follow" and "Bad" which get played all the time on the radio where I live. I think those 9 songs from 1980-1990 get about double the airtime the rest of the 1990-2000 gets. But will see what happens. I had to remind my friends who are big U2 fans that 1990-2000 was coming out this Tuesday. I hope there is a little more excitement among the fanbase about the release.
 
Some copies has already put on sale on many music stores here in Spain... So, 1 copy sold in Spain!:tongue:

The pack isn't a 3CD ( 2CD + DVD ) pack!! There is a normal 2CD pack ( the same used in 1998 ) with de DVD as a free item.

Enjoy the best of!!

Vox
 
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