What sucks is none of this matters because this is the top 6 (I'm assuming):
1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame
5) Georgia
6) Texas
So you're going to have to contend with the fact that the CFP are already jizzing themselves over the fact that that top four may be their final, because there's a better to decent chance that ll four of those teams win out.
I know you can relate to all of this because I know TCU only started to be truly considered post conference realignment with their Big 12 invitation.
As for your rankings, I think Georgia genuinely will fall, but my vision of what the top 6 looos like otherwise is simply replace Georgia there with LSU (LSU will be forgiven and placed just ahead of Georgia).
That’s actually really good news, more on that later.
ND's biggest challenge left this year is USC.
Notre Dame plays fuck all leftover, you’re right. They’re our biggest problem and we need them to lose, and preferably to a nobody. No “quality loss” bullshit. Because we *need* that similar matchup up with Pitt to be the de facto tiebreaker, and sadly they need 1 loss to be considered equal to our 0 losses. Though, they might even need 2 losses for us.
Clemson plays fuck no one.
Probably unimportant to us - I don’t think ACC chaos is necessary.
tOSU has the biggest chance of losing, IMO, but they also have the hardest remaining schedule, giving them a chance to jump back in, too.
Probably don’t want them to lose either.
Alabama's best shot at losing is @LSU.
Definitely do not want Alabama losing to LSU - this will surely eliminate us, as the CFP will not not put Alabama in the playoffs. We saw it last year. Alabama doesn’t need to win their important games to be considered. They can lose to LSU and that just allows the CFP to put two SEC teams in again.
Then of course there's Georgia. They have an extremely difficult schedule the remainder of the year. Which is terrible for you guys if they win out, because if any of the remaining top four were to lose, they're in for sure, probably even if they were to lose to Bama in the SEC championship.
This is also why bama can’t lose to LSU. If/when Georgia claws their way back in, we need bama to give Georgia their 2nd loss knockout punch. A two loss team is just as unprecedented as a non P5 team. They won’t get in. Especially considering their loss was a slaughter, not a good game.
And then Texas has WVU and the Big XII Championship game as well left, so again, they have a great shot of jumping into the top 4 if they can win out.
Yup, and we need them to lose, but I don’t think asking for either of these teams to lose is a lot to ask. I also think, if there’s any conference this year aside from the PAC-12 who the CFP might cave under the (nonexistent) pressure of a group of 5 riot, it’s at the expense of the Big 12. I do think they would consider taking undefeated UCF over a 1 loss Big 12 champ. If only because of the way this season is playing out, with those teams all finding themselves on the outside looking in early. Many of those teams suffered early losses, and will spend the rest of the season earning their reputations back. The same can’t be said for SEC teams, who supposedly don’t have to earn their reputations back after losses, as their reputation doesn’t ever seem to go away amongst voters.
Obviously, though UCF being in the division they are in has every chance of the world of winning out, so they'll very likely stay in the convo until the bitter end, because you'll be ranked very highly when the CFP starts.
That's my two cents in a year where I don't have to even think about this shit, because we are *SO SO SO SO* bad.
Sorry for responding in this incredibly annoying block format, I’m just really really attentive to this right now haha.
The one thing I’ll say is that it’s kinda bullshit that everyone thinks we have it easy to win out. We have had it easy the last six weeks, there’s no doubt. But visiting this week and all the games from last year, it’s apparent that (1) the best of the best in the AAC can and will go toe to toe with the best of the best in the nation. UCF proved that. USF played a lesser bowl opponent but they did their business. UCF barely squeaked by USF, and barely squeaked by Memphis the last three goes. USF has been awkward but won all their games this year. I can’t vouch for Cincy being as good as their record because admittedly I never paid attention to them the last few seasons, as they came out of nowhere this year. But, they’re still undefeated.
The bottom line is that, yes, the SEC is the top flight. No question. Inter-conference records agree. There’s also no question that the AAC is a middle of the pack gray area, and that they have been unfairly put in a binary black and white picture where instead they belong as “the gray area,” where the best of the best in that conference can and will stand up to the nation’s best (Top 25) teams. With that being said, how often do you see said top flight teams booking AAC opponents? Never. They split their inter-conference games with (1) money makers (Miami v Florida, for example), and (2) pettier opponents. Because they can rely on their conference games to spot them for the pettier opponents they play.
Teams like UCF are excited for the chance to play lower billed SEC teams etc. that will book us. Did you know Florida refused to book UCF many years ago because UCF wasn’t willing to put their home game of the home and home in a gator friendly citrus bowl? There’s no benefit to playing teams in the gray area that might be good without respect.
Aaaanyways, long post-babble summary: Notre Dame needs to lose, and lose bad. Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama preferably need to obliterate everyone, and some Big 12 help wouldn’t be so bad. Though, if any of these teams choose to suck, hopefully it’s Clemson. Because the other two will just create further problems for us if they start sharing 1 loss records with their rivals.
