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Old 01-24-2016, 06:21 PM   #586
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with the way Denver's defense was playing?
If you want to discount the Patriots' chances on 4th down like that, you also have to discount their chances of staging additional scoring drives.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:24 PM   #587
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The Patriots defense had the Broncos offense well under control by the fourth quarter. Pats should have kicked a FG and then gone for the touchdown at the end.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:24 PM   #588
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Brian Burke's model thinks it's borderline, and he's incorporating way more information than we are.

Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?

Bottom line is that the patriots had two FG opportunities, and they had the ability to easily get the ball back on defense. Is that taken into account? I don't know how you can defend this decision. The patriots took the ballsier move, and it didn't pay off.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:26 PM   #589
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The Broncos will get killed in the Super Bowl against Carolina, if it comes to that. I could see a repeat performance of two years ago.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:32 PM   #590
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Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?
I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:33 PM   #591
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I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.
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Old 01-24-2016, 06:34 PM   #592
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Just heard the Panthers rocking SBS on the kick off


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Old 01-24-2016, 06:36 PM   #593
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I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

They should not ignore Pop


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Old 01-24-2016, 06:43 PM   #594
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they should not ignore pop


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Old 01-24-2016, 07:04 PM   #595
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Pan
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Old 01-24-2016, 07:19 PM   #596
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I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

No more!
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Old 01-24-2016, 07:20 PM   #597
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3 turnovers in 3 plays

Defense will definitely win a championship this year.
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Old 01-24-2016, 07:22 PM   #598
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What a horrible coaching decision by Arians to have Palmer throw that interception.


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Old 01-24-2016, 07:28 PM   #599
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Terry Bradshaw is convinced that Palmer should not have thrown that interception.
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Old 01-24-2016, 07:31 PM   #600
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I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.
Well fuck it I guess I'm an optimist.

Also optimists? The Patriots. Who easily got the ball back. Twice.
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