NFL 2015 Part 2: There's a Flag Down

[bobsaget77]

So dumb not to kick field goals. This game would be over.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[deep]

Could have been winners now.

 

[Oregoropa]

Gronk must pull so much ass


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[LemonMelon]

Pats deserved to lose, especially the way they did.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

But to get that TD the second time, you need to drive the length of the field again.

There are tradeoffs involved in each course of action.

Which they did TWO more times after they didn't kick the field goal.

Great coaches make awful decisions sometimes. That was an awful decision.

 

[speedracer]

Take the lead... on another FG nonetheless. It could be virtually over right now, in NE's favor. Instead, they've 50 seconds to stay alive.

Guys, FG's aren't automatic either.

I don't think it's obvious either way.

 

[deep]

I mean seriously Belichick... Kick the fucking field goal

When you are right, you are right

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Guys, FG's aren't automatic either.



I don't think it's obvious either way.

You think Gostkowski is going to miss two FGs inside of 40 yards, in one of the easiest stadiums to kick at? Cmon.

 

[deep]

How about that missed PAT
Wtf was that????

 

[Hewson]

Which they did TWO more times after they didn't kick the field goal.

Great coaches make awful decisions sometimes. That was an awful decision.

Pretty much.

A lot of credit to Denver's D, played a whale of a game.

 

[brooklynmike]

Broncos, baby!

 

[speedracer]

You think Gostkowski is going to miss two FGs inside of 40 yards, in one of the easiest stadiums to kick at? Cmon.

Brian Burke's model thinks it's borderline, and he's incorporating way more information than we are.

 

[LemonMelon]

68% chance of the Patriots making it there with the way Denver's defense was playing? More like 6.8%.

 

[mikal]

Interference = Every time NFL teams lose, we question coaching decisions.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LemonMelon]

Panthers look unstoppable right now. That Forehead must be sweating.

 

[speedracer]

with the way Denver's defense was playing?

If you want to discount the Patriots' chances on 4th down like that, you also have to discount their chances of staging additional scoring drives.

 

[phanan]

The Patriots defense had the Broncos offense well under control by the fourth quarter. Pats should have kicked a FG and then gone for the touchdown at the end.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Brian Burke's model thinks it's borderline, and he's incorporating way more information than we are.

Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?

Bottom line is that the patriots had two FG opportunities, and they had the ability to easily get the ball back on defense. Is that taken into account? I don't know how you can defend this decision. The patriots took the ballsier move, and it didn't pay off.

 

[phanan]

The Broncos will get killed in the Super Bowl against Carolina, if it comes to that. I could see a repeat performance of two years ago.

 

[speedracer]

Does this model take into account the way the defense was playing? Did it factor in in game statistics? Situational statistics of the field they were playing on? Splits for the defense, and for Gostkowski? Are they split for playoff situations? What's the context, here?

I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.

 

[bono_212]

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

 

[Oregoropa]

Just heard the Panthers rocking SBS on the kick off


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[Oregoropa]

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

They should not ignore Pop


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[brooklynmike]

they should not ignore pop


sent from my iphone using u2 interference

lol

 

[deep]

Pan
thers

 

[lazarus]

I can't express how much I hate it when stadiums play Sunday Bloody Sunday over the PAs.

No more!

 

[LemonMelon]

3 turnovers in 3 plays

Defense will definitely win a championship this year.

 

[mikal]

What a horrible coaching decision by Arians to have Palmer throw that interception.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LemonMelon]

Terry Bradshaw is convinced that Palmer should not have thrown that interception.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'll try to dig up some references for you, but I'm pretty sure that Burke's research shows that using probabilities from the current game does a worse job of predicting future results in that game than using league-average results (which is what the model uses). In other words, using current-game probabilities (or making adjustments for such) is another small sample size mistake.

Also, saying that the Patriots had the ability to 'easily' get the ball back seems really optimistic to me.

Well fuck it I guess I'm an optimist.

Also optimists? The Patriots. Who easily got the ball back. Twice.