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Old 10-19-2012, 03:28 PM   #151
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Why would it be an overreaction? The team is getting old and older still. May be time to let some folks go to free agency, trade a couple of guys who are aging, nab a couple prospects or whatever. Cano and Granderson are on the cusp of getting really expensive themselves while the Yankees publicly say they want to get closer to/under the salary cap.
I think it would be an overreaction to blow up a team that reached the ALCS and that had 95 wins despite having the most DL days in the league. Thankfully that's not their MO, despite the stupidity of most Yankees fans who think it's a total failure not to win a championship and that you have to "sign players that are good in the postseason". I doubt they'll make any crazy move based on what happened in the past week.

They should - and will - make changes at the margins, like letting Swisher go (for money/aging reasons rather than postseason performance), maybe trading Granderson or letting him go after next year (to save money for Cano). Soriano will likely opt out. They might try to trade A-Rod, but I doubt the small savings from that would make sense for the team. I would bet the core starting next season will be very similar. They'll probably try to bring Pettitte and/or Kuroda back (even with normal aging curves they should be pretty good). Pineda could be back by mid-2013 if he's healthy. It should be a 90+ win team.
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Old 10-19-2012, 03:39 PM   #152
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I struggle to see them at or under the salary cap by simply standing pat and making the outlier moves you suggest. Because those players would have to be replaced with players either from within the organization (are there any outfielders close to major league ready in their system?) or free agents. Nick Swisher would free up some money, Granderson some, and Soriano with some. But that leaves two glaring holes that would need to be plugged. And unless they're going to go for a more fringe-type, they'll likely spend 3/4ths as much on one free agent outfielder as they did on Swisher and Granderson combined in 2012. And that would still leave one glaring hole in the outfield. And then Cano's going to get a big raise once he's FA eligible.

It could very well be that they don't really want to get under the salary cap at all, though, in which case the moves you suggest they'll make would work. But I think if the Yankees are thinking about being under the cap and being competitive five years from now, they could do better than just standing pat and getting older.
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Old 10-19-2012, 04:08 PM   #153
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They only need to get under $189 million in 2014, not next year. If you take the $210 payroll in 2012, that comes down to $21 million they need to save (I believe it’s slightly more complicated as the luxury tax payroll is calculated differently, but this should be a reasonable approximation). By 2014, the following contracts will have expired: Swisher ($10 million in 2012), AJ (I think they paid the Pirates about $11 million a year on average in 2012 and 2013), Mariano ($15 million in 2012, assuming he retires after next year), Granderson ($10 million in 2012), Freddy Garcia + Feliciano + Andruw Jones ($10 million in total in 2012). That leaves them with about $35 million for Cano’s raise (probably around $7 million a year, as he’s making $14 million already), paying arbitration raises, and investing in two outfielders. They won’t be able to spend $20 millions per year in a guy like Hamilton, but that’s not peanuts either. I bet they will move Gardner to center, sign a stop-gap for 2013 (maybe Ichiro and a platoon partner), and then let Granderson walk after next season (when they can assess whether one of Heathcott, Williams or Austin can play in the majors). The other scenario is that they trade for a cost-controlled outfielder.

I think the above scenario is doable. They will probably lose a couple of wins overall, but it’s not the end of the world.

It’s easy to say they need to get younger – who disagrees? – but for a team that hasn’t drafted in the top 20 in 15 years, it’s hard to do. Their prospects are usually high risk-high reward because they are picked in the latter rounds (so the likelihood of failure is greater – think of Brackman).

There are also intangible reasons why they won’t blow up: 2013 is probably Mariano’s last season, and Jeter is getting closer to the end. As long as they have a shot at the playoffs (and it’s very hard to argue they don’t), they will go for it. And I don’t blame them – blowing up a team should only be done when strictly necessary, and that’s not the case for the Yankees in my opinion. I think we’ll see a younger team 3 years from now, but not immediately.
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Old 10-19-2012, 04:10 PM   #154
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Been a lot of noise around Philly about the Phillies making a play for A-Rod. I think that would be my nightmare. The only thing worse would be if the Eagles signed an inaccurate, turnover-prone shithead quarterback to a $100 million contract.
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Old 10-20-2012, 11:56 AM   #155
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There are also intangible reasons why they won’t blow up: 2013 is probably Mariano’s last season, and Jeter is getting closer to the end. As long as they have a shot at the playoffs (and it’s very hard to argue they don’t), they will go for it. And I don’t blame them – blowing up a team should only be done when strictly necessary, and that’s not the case for the Yankees in my opinion. I think we’ll see a younger team 3 years from now, but not immediately.
I see your point on the intangibles. I guess by blow the team up, I meant a little different than you. Mostly by blowing the team up, I was thinking offering Swisher nothing but a qualifying offer (get the draft picks or at worst pay him for one more season), trading Granderson for some team's #3-#5 range prospect, putting A-Rod onto the block and offering to pay most of the remaining contract to get something decent in return (A-Rod was actually having a pretty good year compared to league average for 3B before King Felix hit him in the hand), letting Soriano walk.

Other things I'd personally do (because quite frankly I'd be more about getting the team core young and sustainable again) would be to put Teixeira on the block for an overpay and either extend Cano this offseason (as it would seem the Mets are trying to do with Wright) or put him on the block for an overpay as well. Those two guys alone could reload the farm with guys close to the major league if not at it. Then with the payroll freed up, they could sign a bunch of lower cost risk-reward/reclamation (guys like Ibanez, Ichiro, Melky, Keppinger, Carlos Pena, Dan Haren [if available], etc.) guys to one year contracts as the young guys (even if only half of Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, Gary Sanchez, Manny Banuelos, etc. pan out, plus whomever would be brought in by trade and extra draft picks that are college guys, close to major league ready) mature.

Then once the core is young, they'd be well under the luxury tax and sustainable again for a good long while.
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Old 10-21-2012, 10:45 AM   #156
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I'm not necessarily against any of this, particularly trading Granderson. Given his skillset, I don't think he will age very well. But I'm not sure what they can get for him is worth it. Really depends on the proposal. The outfield would look totally powerless without him or Swisher, though.

For Cano, I agree - if he doesn't want to take a 6-year extension, I would let him go (trade him, more likely). I would stay far away from any middle-infielder who wants an 8 to 10 year extension at his age. He could possibly yield a big return, but the lost production is almost impossible to replace, so I don't think they would trade Cano even if they can't extend him.

I'm also ok with them trading A-Rod, but with the money they would have to pay they might as well keep him for now (I doubt there is any team willing to pay 10 million/year for him). Try him another year at 3B and move him to DH afterwards.
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Old 10-21-2012, 11:24 AM   #157
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Any team that aquires A-Rod is going to have to pay most of his yearly salary. When the Yankees aquired A-Rod in 2004 from the Rangers, they had to pay 16 million of his 25 million dollar yearly salary. Before going to the Yankees, the Red Sox wanted to only pay 9 million of his salary, which the league wouldn't allow. That's why he didn't go to the Red Sox.


Plus, A-Rod would have to agree to the trade.
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Old 10-21-2012, 04:22 PM   #158
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Any team that aquires A-Rod is going to have to pay most of his yearly salary. When the Yankees aquired A-Rod in 2004 from the Rangers, they had to pay 16 million of his 25 million dollar yearly salary. Before going to the Yankees, the Red Sox wanted to only pay 9 million of his salary, which the league wouldn't allow. That's why he didn't go to the Red Sox.

Plus, A-Rod would have to agree to the trade.
No team will take a-rod unless the Yankees eat a large chunk of his contract.

And yes, the Yankees should look at Boston as a warning and blow the team up. They won't, but they should. They're old. Really really old. And they're poorly constructed for October baseball.
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Old 10-21-2012, 04:58 PM   #159
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if the sox/dodgers can pull off their trade, new york can get rid of arod

it would be nice if both teams would scale things down a bit. i'm getting tired of seeing new york spend all this money and get pretty much nothing in return.
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Old 10-21-2012, 05:23 PM   #160
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if the sox/dodgers can pull off their trade, new york can get rid of arod

it would be nice if both teams would scale things down a bit. i'm getting tired of seeing new york spend all this money and get pretty much nothing in return.
This is true... an idiot is born every day.
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Old 10-22-2012, 06:50 AM   #161
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No team will take a-rod unless the Yankees eat a large chunk of his contract.

And yes, the Yankees should look at Boston as a warning and blow the team up. They won't, but they should. They're old. Really really old. And they're poorly constructed for October baseball.

The last time the Yankees went on a shopping spree, they won the World Series. If a team aquires A-Rod, that team would have to pay at least half of his salary or more. The Yankees are stuck with A-Rod until he decides to retire.
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Old 10-22-2012, 07:21 AM   #162
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The last time the Yankees went on a shopping spree, they won the World Series. If a team aquires A-Rod, that team would have to pay at least half of his salary or more. The Yankees are stuck with A-Rod until he decides to retire.
There is no way that a team is gonna pay half or more of A-Rod's salary, the Yanks will be eating probably 75% of it if they move him.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:25 AM   #163
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There is no way that a team is gonna pay half or more of A-Rod's salary, the Yanks will be eating probably 75% of it if they move him.
Which is why they probably shouldn't move him. You can't replace his (diminished) production with 7 million/year.
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:26 PM   #164
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There is no way that a team is gonna pay half or more of A-Rod's salary, the Yanks will be eating probably 75% of it if they move him.
If you recall in 2004, the BoSox only wanted to pay 9 million of A-Rod's then 25 million dollar annual salary. MLB wouldn't allow it. The Yankees then came along and offered to pay 16 of the 25 million and MLB approved the trade to NY. MLB wants the team aquiring a player to pay the majority of that player's yearly salary. I don't see A-Rod going anywhere and staying with the Yankees. I would think the Yankees are just hoping to get 145 games from the guy and perhaps 30 Home runs and 100 RBI's. High hopes indeed considering he's been injured every year after 2007.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:18 PM   #165
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If you recall in 2004, the BoSox only wanted to pay 9 million of A-Rod's then 25 million dollar annual salary. MLB wouldn't allow it. The Yankees then came along and offered to pay 16 of the 25 million and MLB approved the trade to NY. MLB wants the team aquiring a player to pay the majority of that player's yearly salary.
That's factually incorrect.

The A-Rod to Boston trade was vetoed not by MLB, but by the player's association. The reasoning had nothing to do with a team choosing to pay more or less of a contract, rather A-Rod volunteering to take a pay cut.
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