Couple of things:
1. I assume you're an obtuse child because of all the changes that are going on in your body. Chemicals are confusing. But don't worry about that, we've all been there.
2. I think Hernandez is a better pitcher than Verlander, so I wouldn't be concerned with that argument.
3. If the Tigers fall out of contention this year, they should seriously entertain offers to trade him because the players that he could command in turn would hasten the rebuilding process.
4. Your Ms are a bad baseball team. They're closer to '10 Greinke Royals than they are '09 Lincicum Giants (btw - someone annonymously sent me a "Let Timmy Smoke t-shirt this week - how cool is that?). I think you should be alright with Smoak, but at this point you've got to be pretty concerned with both Auckley and Saunders. Franklin had a good (surprising) year, so he may be one to build around, but can you really rely on a guy that hasn't strung good years together?
The major league quality players on your roster are old and mostly bit players (Ichiro excluded, of course). So at this point, you've got a handful of hope and holes all throughout your roster. With that in mind, is it really so far fetched to suggest that that Mariner's brass will entertain trading Hernandez?
I would suggest not and for the very reasons that you stated. He's young, one of the best pitchers in baseball. This kid's value is so high it's ridiculous. So, if by the trade deadline it doesn't look like the young players you're hoping to build around are going to pan out, I'd start to entertain offers just to get the idea out there. Then I'd wait until after the season that will see the Yankees fall out of contention because the Sox have a better team.
Yankee fans are in a state of panic because they're not supposed to miss the playoffs let alone fail to win the world series. Their window is closing fast because the players that they've invested in are getting old. They need another stud pitcher to make that happen. Cashman calls Seattle and Zduriencik says sure, let's start with Cano, Hughes, Montero and a pitching prospect. The Yankees laugh ... but not too hard. Negotiations continue.
5. Now you've got one thing right. The Ms don't HAVE to trade him. He's an unbelievable talent at a fantastic price. If they don't get what they want, they keep him and try to build around him. He's always going to be a hard player to part with, but sometimes you need to let go of a special player in order to build a better ball club.
*** One last note: the thing that really complicates this from the Mariners' perspective is his (limited) no trade clause. The fact that he can veto a trade to the 10 biggest markets means that he can use that to force the team trading for him to renegotiate his contract at the time of the trade. If he insists on doing that, it hurts his value for the Ms. That's tough.
1. Yeah, I'm pretty sure you know
all about chemicals.
2. Great. Not a hard conclusion to come to.
3. Trading out young talent for more younger, unproven, volatile talent gets you to the Royals system. Always 2 or 3 years away from everything coming together.
4. I don't understand your logic. Why should Smoak be alright and not Ackley? Ackley's got a higher ceiling. Please don't give me idiotic responses like that he had a low batting average in his first season of professional baseball while he was learning a new position. Tell me: why are the scouts wrong? Saunders' ceiling was never higher than league average. Franklin's good but raw. And you completely left out Pineda who would rank in the top 3 or 4 of any club's system.
Our system sent something ridiculous like 7 out of 9 affiliates to the playoffs this year. Our farm is solid with a lot of guys who could possibly be slightly above league average (2 WAR or so) in a couple of years... when Felix is, what? 26? 27? It would make more sense to trade Ichiro. But that won't happen because of the tremendous amount of money he brings the club and the city.
Also, as for the team being old, I don't expect you to know a whole lot about the Mariners as they had one of the most underperforming teams of all time. Basically, take all their hitters and put up their worst seasons across the board and converge them and you get the 2010 Mariners. But with regard to the Mariners being an
old team? Uh, are you for real? Not one pitcher who we currently have penciled in is 30 or older. We have a backup LF (32), a C (31), a DH (31), a possible 60-game SS (32), and a RF over the age of 30 on the field. The Mariners may not be anywhere near contending, but they are definitely not an old team.
5. Yeah, I see that point. But I guess it's the same sort of idea as Arizona shopping Upton. If someone's willing to
grossly overpay (Cano, Montero, Hughes, plus a couple guys who are farther away but with high ceilings), then you have to take the deal. 3 guys who can put up 4+ WAR are worth more than 1 guy who can put up 7 (unless you're trying to maximize every roster spot).
**Even more a reason they wouldn't trade him is that leverage he has. I have a feeling he doesn't want to be traded. Part of that feeling is his extension last offseason; he could have been a free agent after 2011 and made $150m easy. He signed with the M's when being offered more from two of the other scouting teams. Just a thought.
