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Old 03-25-2011, 08:43 PM   #436
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I don't need any stats to know not to do that.
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Old 03-25-2011, 09:07 PM   #437
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Please understand that I am not saying that fouling the 50% FT shooter is massively optimal. At best it's a 2% edge or so. I think it's simple enough to say "you guys are to foul these two guys hard if they get the ball off the inbounds, otherwise back off and play D," but I understand if the coach disagrees. What I am saying that dismissing the idea out of hand is incorrect.
My feeling on it is you don't really want to do something like that unless the numbers are heavily in favor of it. And there's just not going to be a realistic scenario where that's the case. Sure, if there was literally a 15% FT shooter on the court, and at the same time his team scored on something like 66% of its possessions, then maybe you think about it. You also can't just look at shooting percentages; you've got to factor in turnovers too. And also consider your opponent doesn't have a full shot clock to run its offense.

Now if you want to talk about fouling a crappy FT shooter on a final possession when you're up 2, that I could see thinking about. In that scenario you come out tied 25% of the time, and it's likely your opponent would have a better than 25% chance of hitting a tying shot from the floor (or beating you with a 3, depending on what kind of shooters they've got). So if you're up 2, and they've inbounded to Ben Wallace (with or without a blindfold), and you've got Ray Allen on your side to get the ball to if you come out of the exchange still leading...maybe you foul. But it's still dicey; when you do that you're extending the game, and allowing for more randomness.
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Old 03-25-2011, 09:35 PM   #438
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My feeling on it is you don't really want to do something like that unless the numbers are heavily in favor of it. And there's just not going to be a realistic scenario where that's the case.
I dislike making the conventional option the "default" option, though I certainly see why coaches do it.

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You also can't just look at shooting percentages; you've got to factor in turnovers too. And also consider your opponent doesn't have a full shot clock to run its offense.
I considered these things when setting the offense's scoring percentage at 35%. I think it's fair, though maybe it's too high.

Or maybe the defense has a 5% chance of forcing a turnover and scoring in regulation without fouling. Or maybe they're only 25% to go the length of the floor and score if they foul and get the ball back. But nobody else is arguing anything of the sort.

Again, I'm not saying that giving the 50% FT shooter 2 FTs is a massive edge. (1-and-1 is completely different.) I'm just saying that Gus Johnson's question was fair.
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Old 03-26-2011, 12:00 AM   #439
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Wow. Game of the year, right there.
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Old 03-26-2011, 09:13 AM   #440
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I dislike making the conventional option the "default" option, though I certainly see why coaches do it.
Yeah, it's thinking like that that has a manager leaving his ace in even though the numbers say he gets lit up once he's thrown >100 pitches. To face Bernie Williams...and Hideki Matsui...AND Jorge Posada.
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Old 03-26-2011, 09:18 AM   #441
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Yeah, it's thinking like that that has a manager leaving his ace in even though the numbers say he gets lit up once he's thrown >100 pitches. To face Bernie Williams...and Hideki Matsui...AND Jorge Posada.
There's conventional thinking, and there's common fuck sense.

Scoring on the other team's basket goes against conventional wisdom, too.
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Old 03-26-2011, 09:26 AM   #442
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There's conventional thinking, and there's common fuck sense.
It is true that thinking more than one step ahead and estimating probabilities for uncertain events are both uncommon.

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Scoring on the other team's basket goes against conventional wisdom, too.
http://www.snopes.com/sports/soccer/barbados.asp
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Old 03-26-2011, 10:42 AM   #443
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Also

Belichick's gamble pays off for Patriots - NFL - ESPN
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Old 03-26-2011, 11:12 AM   #444
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Football comparisons really don't work into your argument here, apples and oranges.
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Old 03-26-2011, 12:12 PM   #445
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I wouldn't foul either, but I like speedracer's argument here.
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Old 03-26-2011, 12:28 PM   #446
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There is no stat that shows the added pressure you are potentially putting on your players by purposely putting them down with limited time left.

There is also no percentage to measure the pressure you have taken off the other team by giving them the lead.

I've been struggling with my three point shot in mens league. Doing very well otherwise, but just overthinking my release from deep. With the game on the line the other day, the guy guarding me backed off to prevent penetration, giving me an open shot to win the game. I buried and then talked all sorts of KG type shit right in his face.

VCU was told on national television that they didn't belong in the tourney. They have played above and beyond their abilities ever since. There is no stat to tell us why.

There is no stat to measure the players ability to be offended by somebody pretty much declaring that you can't do something.

There is no stat that will ever convince me that fouling while tied is smart.
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Old 03-26-2011, 04:29 PM   #447
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I have made my disdain for cherry-picked psychological arguments well known, but if you insist:

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There is no stat that shows the added pressure you are potentially putting on your players by purposely putting them down with limited time left.

There is also no percentage to measure the pressure you have taken off the other team by giving them the lead.

I've been struggling with my three point shot in mens league. Doing very well otherwise, but just overthinking my release from deep. With the game on the line the other day, the guy guarding me backed off to prevent penetration, giving me an open shot to win the game. I buried and then talked all sorts of KG type shit right in his face.

VCU was told on national television that they didn't belong in the tourney. They have played above and beyond their abilities ever since. There is no stat to tell us why.

There is no stat to measure the players ability to be offended by somebody pretty much declaring that you can't do something.

There is no stat that will ever convince me that fouling while tied is smart.
Let's go back to the NFL example. Patriots vs. Colts. Patriots score to pull to within 28-27 at the gun in Indy. Steve Gostkowski kicks the XP to tie it up and the scoreboard reads 28-28, but the Colts are offside on the play. The Patriots now have the option of (1) declining the penalty and going into overtime, probably as a slight dog on the road or (2) giving back the XP and going for the deuce from the 1-yard line, probably as a decent favorite. (In this case the point really is being given away; the Colts don't have to do anything to claim it.)

If Belichick chooses to go for 2, do you think Tom Brady is nervous with the knowledge that a bad read costs his team the game? Do you think that Pat Angerer feels good about cutting off Wes Welker's option routes and stuffing Danny Woodhead off the direct snap? Does the Patriots defense mutiny against Belichick? (They've had two chances to do so in the last two years and passed it up both times.)

Now back to basketball. We've all seen whatever it is Jimmer Fredette does when his team doesn't have the ball. Psychologically, which do you think fires him up more: (1) one possession on defense, and if he wins that, a guaranteed five more minutes of pain, or (2) one possession on offense with a shot (depending on the FT outcomes) to win it in regulation?
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Old 03-26-2011, 06:01 PM   #448
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I took the year off for personal matters, but i've still got butterflies as if I were there.

LuHi, the program i'm involved in, is playing for the ny state title tonight. Bring it fucking home.
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Old 03-26-2011, 06:22 PM   #449
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I took the year off for personal matters, but i've still got butterflies as if I were there.

LuHi, the program i'm involved in, is playing for the ny state title tonight. Bring it fucking home.
Less posting from the game, more cheering. Go Lutheran.
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Old 03-26-2011, 06:31 PM   #450
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Florida looks like the clearly better team here. If they pull this out, they might have had the easiest road to the Final Four ever.
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