2011 MLB Thread- Part One

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speedracer said:
HR/GB ratio
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the tourist said:
Never seen this stat before.
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It's a Tim McCarver invention. "One thing about ground balls, they don't go out of the ballpark."

From what I can tell, the Mets' starting pitching seems ok given that Johan is out, although starting depth always helps. Their bullpen seems pretty bad though.
 
the tourist said:
Never seen this stat before.

Anyway, even with regression, he's quite a bit better than anything we sent them. And aren't they starting pitching starved?
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Don't they have a better record than the mariners despite missing their starting first baseman, starting third baseman, and #1 ace starting pitcher?

If you want me to say that the M's got a better trade... fine. The mariners got a few mediocre parts while the Mets got guys who are all gone now, as is the GM who made the deal.

So +1 for you guys. Perhaps you can spin one of your surplus of future hall of fame pitchers off for that one big bat you've been so desperately searching for.

This is not exactly Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell. You got the better side of a mostly meaningless trade. I'm glad you're happy with Vargas. I'm quite happy with Dillon Gee myself. Our pitching is just fine, thank you.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
This is not exactly Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell. You got the better side of a mostly meaningless trade. I'm glad you're happy with Vargas. I'm quite happy with Dillon Gee myself. Our pitching is just fine, thank you.
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Yes. R.A. Dickey is just lovely, isn't he? Dillon Gee's 1.76 K/BB is just stellar, I suppose.

Mets
Team ERA: 20th
Team Quality Starts: 21st
Team BAA: 22nd
 
speedracer said:
From what I can tell, the Mets' starting pitching seems ok given that Johan is out, although starting depth always helps. Their bullpen seems pretty bad though.
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the tourist said:
Yes. R.A. Dickey is just lovely, isn't he? Dillon Gee's 1.76 K/BB is just stellar, I suppose.

Mets
Team ERA: 20th
Team Quality Starts: 21st
Team BAA: 22nd
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According to ESPN, the Mets' starters are 8th/16 in the NL in starting ERA, 14th/16 in bullpen ERA. Replace the human wasteland that is Mike Pelfrey with The Johan and their starting staff would probably be 5th or so.
 
If Jeter is an All Star (a starter even !), then I am the Tooth Fairy.

Ridiculous...sort of like Rafael Palmeiro winning the Gold Glove at 1b, playing only 28 games in that position all year.
 
speedracer said:
According to ESPN, the Mets' starters are 8th/16 in the NL in starting ERA, 14th/16 in bullpen ERA. Replace the human wasteland that is Mike Pelfrey with The Johan and their starting staff would probably be 5th or so.
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23rd of 30 in FIP for starters.
19th of 30 in xFIP for starters.

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

Would replacing Pelfrey with Johan really make that much of a difference?


speedracer said:
Vargas is also an flyball pitcher who is currently posting a 6.3% HR/GB ratio, which is pretty clearly unsustainable (even for Safeco). Meanwhile his strikeout rate is pretty mediocre. I wouldn't crow about him this much if he were on my team.
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Also, revisiting this, I suppose Felix, Pineda, and Fister are also all looking for trouble then on the HR front as they're posting 6.3%, 5.9%, and 4.6% respectively... or maybe Safeco is a ridiculous park with heavy sea air that suppresses balls in the air when the roof is open coupled with that massive left field.
 
the tourist said:
23rd of 30 in FIP for starters.
19th of 30 in xFIP for starters.

Major League Teams � 2011 � Starters � Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Would replacing Pelfrey with Johan really make that much of a difference?
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I just took the difference between Pelfrey's current ERA and Johan's recent ERA, divided by 5, and subtracted that from the Mets starting ERA to make my previous claim. Maybe there's something weird going on with Pelfrey's peripherals, but he's quite a bit inferior.

the tourist said:
Also, revisiting this, I suppose Felix, Pineda, and Fister are also all looking for trouble then on the HR front as they're posting 6.3%, 5.9%, and 4.6% respectively... or maybe Safeco is a ridiculous park with heavy sea air that suppresses balls in the air when the roof is open coupled with that massive left field.
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Felix also posted HR/FBs of 15-16% his first two full seasons in Safeco. The baseline HR/FB is something like 10%. I don't know what a fair baseline HR/FB is for Safeco, but it definitely isn't 6.3%. That'd be saying that one out of three HR balls in a normal park stays in Safeco.

If I am interpreting this post correctly, it suggests that Safeco's fair HR/FB rate is 95% league average, so 9.5% (over a sample of four years).

Felix might be able to keep a low HR/FB rate, but I'd guess the other guys are going to regress.

EDIT: An update on the HR/FB study claims that Safeco's HR/OFFB (home runs per outfield fly ball, i.e. ignoring popups) is about 92% of league average.
 
speedracer said:
Felix also posted HR/FBs of 15-16% his first two full seasons in Safeco. The baseline HR/FB is something like 10%. I don't know what a fair baseline HR/FB is for Safeco, but it definitely isn't 6.3%. That'd be saying that one out of three HR balls in a normal park stays in Safeco.

If I am interpreting this post correctly, it suggests that Safeco's fair HR/FB rate is 95% league average, so 9.5% (over a sample of four years).

Felix might be able to keep a low HR/FB rate, but I'd guess the other guys are going to regress.

EDIT: An update on the HR/FB study claims that Safeco's HR/OFFB (home runs per outfield fly ball, i.e. ignoring popups) is about 92% of league average.
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Some interesting stuff here. I believe the league average is 10.6%. In Jason Vargas' case in particular, his first full season (2010), he posted a 6.1% (and Doug Fister's was 6.4%, also his first full season). These guys just seem to be following their own trend.

Also, I'm not sure about that park factor site you linked. I'm not sure what they're taking into account there. I do know that the air here kills balls in flight at what has been described to me as an inverse of Coors in the 90s. Especially to left-field. Having been to many games, the wind often is blowing in from LF as well, almost in a downward angle (as when I sit on the 1B side in the first level, it's windy as fuck coming from LF; however sitting on the 1B side in the upper deck, there's little-to-no wind on the same night--something I've tested at each of the half-dozen games I've been to this year, afternoon and evening). Look what Safeco did to Adrian Beltre's production, and what he did both before it and after it. This is why pitchers with a flyball skill-set work very well here. Add to that the fact that they're pitching better than league average, and raw stats can look really good.

As for Felix's first two years, well, he was young and not the same Felix. He took leaps forward in the following years.

Anyway, it's good to have a good conversation about stats and stuff that doesn't resort to dredging up 4-year-old quotes in here.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a Jason Bay sighting. Contrary to common belief, he was not missing for the last 2 years somewhere in Queens...He's actually been in the line up. No one noticed until yesterday.:hyper:
 
MrPryck2U said:
We haven't even gotten to the All-Star break yet. He's still gotta make it through the dog days of the season in August and September.
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So far, he's gotta be a top candidate.

1B isn't the most grueling position on the diamond. He's also a mellow dude. I think he's going to be all right.
 
phanan said:
Possibly, but his lower average hurts his chances compared to the other two.
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I know sportswriters probably don't pay attention to things like WAR, but Granderson is higher than AGon, but lower than Bautista (as per fangraphs).

Unrelated, but speaking of WAR, Dustin Ackley currently has .9 WAR in 16 games.
 
the tourist said:
I know sportswriters probably don't pay attention to things like WAR, but Granderson is higher than AGon, but lower than Bautista (as per fangraphs).

Unrelated, but speaking of WAR, Dustin Ackley currently has .9 WAR in 16 games.
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Yeah, I doubt they'd focus in on something like that too much.

I'd rate Konerko higher than Granderson this year myself.
 
the tourist said:
Anyway, it's good to have a good conversation about stats and stuff that doesn't resort to dredging up 4-year-old quotes in here.
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As opposed to dredging up 3 year old trades of mediocre talent and declaring victory over two fan bases who forgot the trade even took place until you brought it up?

I'm glad you're happy with Jason Vargas. I hope he does well for you. I'm not exactly going to lose any sleep over his loss.

And sorry for the delayed responses... I'm out of my office during the summer so I'm about 5 days behind on everything
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
As opposed to dredging up 3 year old trades of mediocre talent and declaring victory over two fan bases who forgot the trade even took place until you brought it up?

I'm glad you're happy with Jason Vargas. I hope he does well for you. I'm not exactly going to lose any sleep over his loss.

And sorry for the delayed responses... I'm out of my office during the summer so I'm about 5 days behind on everything
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"Mediocre" talent that has produced multiple WAR each year for two years. And I only brought it up because I saw an article on the sbnation about it. From the perspective of the Mets. :wave:
 
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