2011 MLB Thread- Part One

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Beltran is close to going to SF.

Love love love the trade. San Francisco's best pitching prospect for a guy who's leaving anyways? Sign me up.

Tip of the hat to Beltran. He was very good for the Mets before the injuries. Got too much grief from the fans, even before that nasty curveball that broke our hearts.

 

[MrPryck2U]

Yeah, the Mets were wise to ship him out. Glad he went to SF instead of Boston.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Terrific play by alderson... shop him around demanding certain players to multiple contenders, stay patient when they say no and wait for one of them to bite.

Apparently SF walked away from the trade talks last week because the Mets wouldn't take anyone but Wheeler.

 

[phanan]

Yeah, the Mets were wise to ship him out. Glad he went to SF instead of Boston.

Same here. Boston doesn't need him.

 

[gump]

Terrific play by alderson... shop him around demanding certain players to multiple contenders, stay patient when they say no and wait for one of them to bite.

Apparently SF walked away from the trade talks last week because the Mets wouldn't take anyone but Wheeler.

Yep. Great job by him. Wheeler is a great return.

Where's Ubaldo going to end up?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Mike Cameron of all people just homered in back to back innings.

I love series against the Nationals. No matter how bad the Marlins are, we always walk all over them. Especially in Washington.

 

[the tourist]

By the way, with the players to be named later, the Rasmus deal might end up not being as bad as it looks for the Cardinals. The Blue Jays probably win the deal still. If they can wrangle a Reyes, Pujols, or Fielder and a TOR starter this offseason, they're going to surprise some people next year methinks.

 

[the tourist]

Mike Cameron of all people just homered in back to back innings.

I love series against the Nationals. No matter how bad the Marlins are, we always walk all over them. Especially in Washington.

I love Mike Cameron. Great, great, great defender in his heyday.

 

[Hewson]

By the way, with the players to be named later, the Rasmus deal might end up not being as bad as it looks for the Cardinals. The Blue Jays probably win the deal still. If they can wrangle a Reyes, Pujols, or Fielder and a TOR starter this offseason, they're going to surprise some people next year methinks.

If they were to add Pujols or Fielder and a TOR starter, they wouldn't be surprising anyone unless they were to lose 90+ games.

But they won't get either Pujols or Fielder, so not to worry.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I love Mike Cameron. Great, great, great defender in his heyday.

Go figure... Mike Cameron basically won the Fish that game with those HRs! Scary ending to the game... last out was about 3 feet from being a HR that would've made a 6 run comeback in the bottom of the 9th.

And Javy Vazquez is pitching good. What's going on?

 

[Hewson]

Today, Felix Hernandez walked Brett Gardener.

Here are the balls and strikes as called by the umpire. Note the green triangle down the center as the pitch called ball four in the above gif.

Umpires are terrible at their job.

While I agree many umps do suck, big assist goes to Josh bard for doing everything in his power to make that pitch look like a ball.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Haha I was thinking that as well. Way to spot the pitch really low by pulling it down and then bringing it back up.

 

[the tourist]

If they were to add Pujols or Fielder and a TOR starter, they wouldn't be surprising anyone unless they were to lose 90+ games.

But they won't get either Pujols or Fielder, so not to worry.

The way Alex A. is going for them, I wouldn't be surprised if they landed a TOR starter in a trade. And as for one of those 1B, they have money to spend. Might as well spend it on someone to hit next to Joey Bats.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Johnson out for the season. Went from day to day on a sore shoulder on a first place team to out for the season, even after everything turning up good looking on the MRIs. I don't get it... what's wrong?

They can't possibly be simply 'shutting him down'. They did that last year... is he just going to be a protected asset for the rest of his career? He's the reason why we're out of contention right now (or rather, the team without him is the reason).

 

[the tourist]

Johnson out for the season. Went from day to day on a sore shoulder on a first place team to out for the season, even after everything turning up good looking on the MRIs. I don't get it... what's wrong?

They can't possibly be simply 'shutting him down'. They did that last year... is he just going to be a protected asset for the rest of his career? He's the reason why we're out of contention right now (or rather, the team without him is the reason).

Question: would you still take him over Felix?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Of talent, yes.

Of practicality... no.

 

[the tourist]

Of talent, yes.

Of practicality... no.

Okay, well here are some numbers, just for the sake of numbers.*

Career FIP: Johnson [3.16] Felix [3.39]
Career xFIP: Johnson [3.52] Felix [3.31]
Career WAR/GS: Johnson [0.16] Felix [0.16]
Career K/BB: Johnson [2.74] Felix [2.94]
Career IP/GS: Johnson [6.42] Felix [6.77]

Both pitchers debuted in 2005, Johnson at the age of 21, Felix at the age of 19.
Since this debut, Johnson has pitched 725.1 innings, while Felix has pitched 1312.2.

Talent level is roughly even and an argument could be made that FIP is the most important stat listed (which I don't personally believe, but some might) and therefore Johnson is better. WAR/GS shows a difference of less than 6 thousandths in Johnson's favor, but I also didn't subtract out his innings, WAR, or anything else from his relief appearances, but counted those toward starts. But then durability and age clearly favor Felix.

I like Josh Johnson. I like him a lot as a player. When he's pitching, he's right there with Felix and various other guys under the age of 28. But I have a horrible nagging suspicion that his future might look a little like Erik Bedard's past.

*This would be where Headache would check out, not seeing those meaningful pitchers' stats of Wins, ERA, and WHIP.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I guess I never really cut Felix too much slack because it took a while to start hearing about him. Go figure though, opposite leagues, opposite ends of the nation.

Physically watching Johnson play... other than a brief glimpse of Stephen Strasburg I don't know a player that's amazed me more. Every single time he takes the mound, with the ever so rare exception of about two or three games over the past three years... a bad game for Josh Johnson is an average game for most pitchers.

WAR gets a bit confusing when we're talking about pitchers in the NL vs. the AL though, doesn't it?

Either way, I hope the best for JJ. I imagine they're just shutting him down again if the MRI's showed up good... I just don't get the point of never letting the dude play. Either that, or there is something they're not telling us.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Okay, well here are some numbers, just for the sake of numbers.*

*This would be where Headache would check out, not seeing those meaningful pitchers' stats of Wins, ERA, and WHIP.

That's cute.

All these fancy stats are great. The Mets have hired some guys who invented many of these stats. Terrific at finding talent.

Problem is this... they don't measure balls.

You can have the guy who puts up great numbers in low pressure situations on teams that suck.

I'll take guys that consistently wins games.

Show me the stat on why Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are/were lights out when it matters the most. What? There isn't a stat to explain that? Oh.

 

[PhilsFan]

Wins isn't a good indicator of balls, either.

 

[MrPryck2U]

Holy shit! Former Yankee Hideki Irabu was found dead of an apparent suicide.

 

[gump]

Show me the stat on why Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are/were lights out when it matters the most. What? There isn't a stat to explain that? Oh.

Actually, there is such a thing, and it shows, for example, that Curt Schilling was worse in high leverage situations than otherwise.

Intangibles are overrated.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Yeah... there are such things as high and low leverage pitching statistics. And people actually use them to distinguish players who are better in high leverage situations. Go figure.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Wins isn't a good indicator of balls, either.

In fact wins alone is a team statistic that for some ungodly reason developed into a pitching statistic.

If W-L were relevant, tons of teams would be chasing Chris 'The sinkerballer who can't throw sinkerballs' Volstad. Because his 12-9 record last year wasn't a super-fluke. Poor old Chris Volstad just got sent to the minors. He's garbage.

 

[PhilsFan]

If wins was an indicator of cajones, Cole Hamels wouldn't have had so few in 2010.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

There is no indicator of balls. You use your eyes and common sense.

Stats alone are inherently flawed. They do not take into effect the human factor. For example... anyone who tells me that a pitcher who pitches for a shitty team like Seattle is better than a guy who pitches and performs at a high level deep into the playoffs for Boston or new york can, well, suck my balls.

Anyone who uses stats alone to judge performance is a fool.

There's a reason why guys change markets and all of a sudden suck.

So let me rephrase... I'll take guys who consistently perform in the big spot over any of your statistical darlings any fucking day.

A guy who puts up #3 or #4 numbers on a low key, bad market team like Seattle or Miami or Kansas city does not impress me one bit. Do it when it counts, or somewhere where the pressure is always on, then I'll be impressed.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Sure, lets skip the whole thing about where leverage statistics do exist.

This is ridiculous, you're honestly trying to make the case that players go from all-star to garbage because they are afraid of a larger market team... there are so many cases in so many other directions that show otherwise. That's a completely individual characteristic and you can't apply it to any one single person.

 

[the tourist]

Sure, lets skip the whole thing about where leverage statistics do exist.

This is ridiculous, you're honestly trying to make the case that players go from all-star to garbage because they are afraid of a larger market team... there are so many cases in so many other directions that show otherwise. That's a completely individual characteristic and you can't apply it to any one single person.

This is why his name is "Headache In A Suitcase".

Anyway, to Headache, I'm sure Dillon Gee is better than Felix Hernandez (despite the fact that the AL is the better hitting league, and all stats say otherwise). Because of teh pressurez. Oh wait, what? Felix hit a grand slam off of Johan? While picking the Mets apart? Oh yeah. Oh but he'd totally fall apart on a contending team like he did in '07 and '09!

Oh wait.

Anyway, I'm sure Felix would just turn right on into Livan in Mets orange and blue.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The real point is that CC Sabathia's been trash ever since he made the leap from small market to big market. Everything previous to being a Yankee was just Spring Training.

None of that made any sense, actually.

 

[Hewson]

The real point is that CC Sabathia's been trash ever since he made the leap from small market to big market. Everything previous to being a Yankee was just Spring Training.

None of that made any sense, actually.

Yes, CC transitioned fine to the bright lights of the Big Apple (which he also tried to turn into a humongous apple pie and eat)...but Headache has a point, there are players who wilt under the spotlight of playing in either a pressure environment a la NY, Boston or Philly and others who wilt in big games, playoff games etc.

Edgar Renteria could not handle playing every day in Boston, admitted as much...and this from a guy who delivered the winning hit for your Marlins in the World Series.

How about Kevin Brown? He melted down in pinstripes. (Could have been roid rage rather than the pressure of playing in NYC, but either way he couldn't handle being a Yankee).

There are some players who just aren't mentally equipped to play under the scrutiny that exists in certain markets...I don't think players in Miami and Seattle face anywhere near the daily scrutiny from media and fans that the players in NY, Boston, Philly and a few other markets face. (How often do the Marlins play in front of a full house? Its every night in these markets, and the northeast fans are not known for clapping politely and saying "you'll do better next time" when a player is not playing well)

Does that mean every Mariner would have a hard time adjusting to being a Yankee? Certainly not, I think Felix Hernandez will do just fine when the M's trade him to the Yankees next year, but there are some players who just can't handle it.