2011 MLB - Part III - World Series, etc.

[the tourist]

But I was just talking about Fielder, Buehrle, and Wilson. Not them three, plus the other names.

Would Nolasco and Sanchez dump ~$22m from the books? Because ~$50m is probably would you'd need for the signing of those three.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

you can have reyes if you'd like... i'll take him to the airport, and ship his medical records to you via FedEx

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Would Nolasco and Sanchez dump ~$22m from the books? Because ~$50m is probably would you'd need for the signing of those three.

Gotta remember...

Javier Vazquez - $7mil
*Ricky Nolasco - $6mil
Juan Carlos 'Leo Nunez' Oviedo - $4 mil
Wes Helms - $1mil

*Assuming the Marlins are looking to acquire two pitchers in the FA market

Those would all be coming off the books from a $57 million payroll. Leaving the Marlins at ~$39mil.

Yeah, it's not likely, but it's within their range. They've stated that they're going to be aggressive. But the money is there. They just likely wont do it. And I doubt they'd dump Sanchez. We are already at a loss for starting pitcher depth past the starting 5.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

the real question is, in 5 years when nobody's showing up to the new stadium, will they be moving on to their third fire sale and threatening to move?

 

[the tourist]

Gotta remember...

Javier Vazquez - $7mil
*Ricky Nolasco - $6mil
Juan Carlos 'Leo Nunez' Oviedo - $4 mil
Wes Helms - $1mil

*Assuming the Marlins are looking to acquire two pitchers in the FA market

Those would all be coming off the books from a $57 million payroll. Leaving the Marlins at ~$39mil.

Yeah, it's not likely, but it's within their range. They've stated that they're going to be aggressive. But the money is there. They just likely wont do it. And I doubt they'd dump Sanchez. We are already at a loss for starting pitcher depth past the starting 5.

Do the Marlins have no one receiving an arbitration raise? Do they have no one with a contract with more money in the back than in the front?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

There will be arbitration raises, but at insignificant levels where we're talking 4-5 million on the payroll. But then on the opposite end, I'm not so sure of what happens with Jose Lopez's 3.5 million contract.

As for back end contracts, the only long term ones are Hanley, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco. If they can move Nolasco that's a moot point, but I'm fairly certain Hanley and JJ aren't getting an increase (I think their numbers are staying at 11 and 7.7 respectively).

I'm not entirely involved with the payroll situation, but I know the money is there for striking it in the FA market with those 3 guys. That being said, I still acknowledge that it's more likely that we end up with just one, if any, of them.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

the real question is, in 5 years when nobody's showing up to the new stadium, will they be moving on to their third fire sale and threatening to move?

I can't imagine they'd be in any position to be moving out of a 5 year old ballpark.

 

[gump]

I'm fairly certain Hanley and JJ aren't getting an increase (I think their numbers are staying at 11 and 7.7 respectively).

More like $15 mil and $13,750 mil (Johnson's salary almost doubles this year). Their payroll is already at $45 mil before the arbitration raises.


https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dEh4Y0IyNFFuVkZaeWxPQXRHenIwTFE&output=html

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Oh wow, I thought for sure that JJ's was an averaged contract... guess not. I knew Hanley's was set to increase, but I thought he got $11 million average (which would have meant that this was the peak). Guess my original thought on their contracts was way off...

But anyways, the buzz around the Marlins is that there's no real limit, and they're willing to pay any player that comes their way and they'll throw out the offers. It just sounds like they wont get into a bidding war with anyone, so the chances of getting these players are low.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

More like $15 mil and $13,750 mil (Johnson's salary almost doubles this year). Their payroll is already at $45 mil before the arbitration raises.


https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dEh4Y0IyNFFuVkZaeWxPQXRHenIwTFE&output=html

But then again, take a look at it. I might have been off on the individual players numbers, but I was still in the correct ballpark for Marlins minus Nolasco. Nolasco is set to make $9 million this year. If he's moved, that leaves the Marlins at $36 million. Although that number's noninclusive of all of the other contracts (arbitration wise).


Arbitration salary estimates, via MLBTR:
Anibal Sanchez - $6MM
'Leo Nunez' Oviedo - $5.8MM
Chris Volstad - $2.6MM
Emilio Bonifacio -$2.1MM
Clay Hensley - $1.8MM
Edward Mujica - $1.6MM
Burke Badenhop - $1.1MM
John Baker - $800K
Donnie Murphy - $700K

I'd imagine Baker and Murphy get DFA'd, Leo Nunez and Chris Volstad wont be Marlins, and the rest get those estimates. So that's about +$12 million, give or take.

So in the event that Nolasco is moved, we're looking at more like $48 mil when all is said and done.

So anywhere from $25 mil to $50 mil will be added (although it wont hold my breath).

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I can't imagine they'd be in any position to be moving out of a 5 year old ballpark.

I didn't say move out in 5 years... I said threaten, as in make rumblings about how its a bad market ans they'll never be able to compete long term because of it.

I'm intrigued to see if this works long term. I don't think it will.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I'm really just sold on the idea that for the next 10-25 years regardless of the team down here (minus the Dolphins), the team's success is directly related to their success in play. It's the way it is. People show up, even for hockey, when the team is winning.

 

[the tourist]

I'd imagine Baker and Murphy get DFA'd, Leo Nunez and Chris Volstad wont be Marlins, and the rest get those estimates. So that's about +$12 million, give or take.

So in the event that Nolasco is moved, we're looking at more like $48 mil when all is said and done.

That's under the assumption those guys get moved. That's under the assumption Vazquez doesn't get resigned. The Marlins could get one of the bigger names and one of the smaller names, though. At this point, though, I'd assume 3B is probably a big concern for them. But then again, they're going to have competition from other teams with payroll to burn as well for those guys. Any of them could wind up with one of the bigger names and one of the smaller names. But not all of them can. Some of the teams will get a small name or nothing. It's nice to dream big for your team, but don't get so wrapped up in dreaming that you're disappointed when the biggest move your team makes is signing A-Ram and resigining Vazquez.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

If Vazquez gets re-signed it's a whole 'nother story though. He'd be part of the pitching rotation, in which case we probably wouldn't be acquiring 2 FA pitchers.

Leo Nunez is in legal trouble, I can't imagine he's retained. Nobody wants Chris Volstad back, especially at that price. He can't pitch at a major league level, there's no use from him.

3B is a huge concern for us. They do want Aramis. I mean... I don't understand why you're telling me not to get my hopes up because I've clearly stated at least four times now that I know the chances are slim. I'm daydreaming. Of course we'll probably go out there and get Reyes or Aramis and... Grady Sizemore. Or something along those lines.

 

[GirlsAloudFan]

I can't imagine Ozzie would be at all thrilled having to work with Vazquez again. In fact, I can easily imagine him being really pissed off about it.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Despite Vazquez's amazing finish to the season, I still would pass on him. No amounts of amazing pitching can erase how god awful he was playing up until the ASB. And if that happens again, it could very well be the difference between a playoff team or not if the team actually finds success next season.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'm really just sold on the idea that for the next 10-25 years regardless of the team down here (minus the Dolphins), the team's success is directly related to their success in play. It's the way it is. People show up, even for hockey, when the team is winning.

The Heat didn't sell out every playoff game.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

The Heat are also in no financial trouble because over the past few years they've been a winning team and they've sold plenty of tickets though.

The Marlins and the Panthers clearly have attendance issues. The last time either one of those teams has been relevant was a quick bit in 2008 when the Panthers almost made the playoffs (and it was packed for a brief month or so). Before that? probably the World Series. As for baseball it's a different story, but that kind of behavior among hockey fans isn't exclusive to those in Florida.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

we'll see.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Guess so. If the Panthers are any bit relevant come March we'll be able to see if that theory holds true again.

 

[PhilsFan]

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Jim Thome hasn't played 1st base since what... 2005?

 

[GirlsAloudFan]

He played a couple games at 1st for us in 2006 and 2007.

 

[PhilsFan]

He'll be pinch hitting. John Mayberry is going to play first base for the most part until Howard returns.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Ah okay. I'd take him off the bench but I'd really be uneasy with him playing 1B regularly until Howard gets back.

Gonna be exciting to see old Jim Thome back in a Phillies jersey.

 

[PhilsFan]

The Phils still have to figure out who the shortstop is, if Polanco will be healthy enough to stay as the regular third baseman, whether Dom Brown will be ready to play left field, if Madson is coming back, etc.

2011 was the year.

 

[the tourist]

I think it's unfortunate that Thome will get a maximum of 162 plate-appearances this year.

 

[kramwest1]

Minnesota Twins replace general manager Bill Smith - TwinCities.com

 

[Hewson]

I think it's unfortunate that Thome will get a maximum of 162 plate-appearances this year.

I'm sure he'll DH interleague games and get a few starts at 1st.

 

[PhilsFan]

No, feel bad for Thome and his unfortunate situation, making a million dollars playing baseball at age 41. How dare the Phillies sign him into the NL. How unfortunate.