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I imagine Wollongong would fit somewhere between Adelaide and Brisbane there. It's been quite striking over the past few weeks travelling between Melbourne and Wollongong. I can barely walk a few metres in any part of inner north Melbourne without spotting another Vote Yes poster or a rainbow flag. In Wollongong the support for Yes is very prominent on campus - the uni promotes itself, on what basis I don't know, as one of the LGBT-friendliest in Australia - but around town it's more muted. The live music venue down the road from me is covered in Yes stuff at least.

I've only received two items of mail on the vote other than my actual survey form: last month early in the campaign I got a Yes leaflet dispelling some of the disingenuous claims of the No camp. And just this weekend I came back from my road trip to find a hysteric No leaflet. Have any of the rest of you received much mail?
 
cobl04 said:
Maybe until 6pm :wink:
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Haha fair enough. The lockout laws are an absolute embarrassment here, but even though they've gutted the centre it's not hard to walk but in any direction to find a place unaffected by them.

Also have to agree with Ax regarding the music scene, can't compete there.

That being said, it's hardly a shit nightlife when there are so many small bars popping up everywhere and we're spoilt for choice when it comes to dining. Depends what kind of night you're after, the city sadly doesn't have everything it used to in terms of clubbing but everything else is excellent.

And I'll take good weather with clean air every day of the week, as it allows for an outdoor culture to thrive. Parks, beaches, markets, fairs and festivals are everywhere and rarely rained off outside of winter. From my perspective, as someone who's been married for a few years and just had a baby, that all suits me very well. But I'll concede that perhaps Melbourne is slightly more fun for when you're early 20s and single and you don't want to move to London.

Edit - haven't received any mail other than the form, but I've seen plenty of Vote Yes material around the city. Going to be an epic Mardi Gras if it finally goes through.
 
monkeyskin said:
That being said, it's hardly a shit nightlife when there are so many small bars popping up everywhere and we're spoilt for choice when it comes to dining. Depends what kind of night you're after, the city sadly doesn't have everything it used to in terms of clubbing but everything else is excellent.
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I'm sorry but I don't agree with this. It's so hard to find a proper pub in NSW. I've no problem finding somewhere I like to drink and eat in Melbourne or Wellington, but it's so shit here. Far fewer pubs with good craft brews on tap, far too many pokies (I can't use my Victorian rule here that I won't patronise a pub with pokies, or I'd never eat a parma again), and generally just no charm or character. I'm appalled how many have awful seating that just looks like a food court.

And I'll take good weather with clean air every day of the week, as it allows for an outdoor culture to thrive. Parks, beaches, markets, fairs and festivals are everywhere and rarely rained off outside of winter.
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I'm having real trouble adjusting to the weather here. Too fucking hot, and I hate blue skies and glaring sunshine every day (I type on one of the few cloudy days I've experienced up here in four months). It's so boring and uncomfortable. It's why I left Queensland, for Melbourne's far superior weather: four actual seasons, and I don't have to get my shorts out until late spring. Melbourne has easily the best weather of any capital city - not too wet like Hobart, not too hot outside summer like the rest.

And Melbourne's full of parks, beaches, markets, fairs, and festivals, what are you talking about? The plentitude of parks is another thing Melbourne has over Sydney. I'll concede the Sydney beaches are nicer than anything in Melbourne, but then I maintain one reason Melbourne's a far better city is because Sydney can rest on the laurels of its natural beauty to try to impress upon people that it's a good place while Melbourne has actually created a thriving culture worth being a part of.
 
Fucking hell we don't even have winter by the rest of the world's standards. :lol:

People who complain about Melbourne winters would be the softest fucking sooks if it weren't for similar complaints from Sydneysiders and Queenslanders. Still remember people bitching about Gold Coast winters when I lived up there...
 
Ah well, agree to disagree Ax. Hope you find a few joints you enjoy soon. Didn't mean to imply there wasn't anything outdoorsy in Melbourne, just that we get to enjoy ours in the sun more. And there are at least 10 parks within 10 minutes walk of my place, thinking of making a treasure trail map when my daughter's old enough.
 
I will never trust a state where turning your chicken schnitzel into a parma is just one option rather than the only thing on the menu. :wink:

When I moved from Queensland to Melbourne one of the things that really impressed me was the large amount of parks. I spent my whole time there riding the tram to work through Royal Park - and, in recent years, when I realised I like beer a little too much, running through it too. Going for a run on a cool autumn morning is inherently more pleasurable than on a summer one! I will never understand why people like to be gross and sweaty. 13-17 degrees is the ideal temperature range.
 
Every lock on every bathroom door appears to turn in the opposite direction of the lock in Australia and New Zealand.

Must be a Southern Hemisphere thing.
 
In: Canavan, Xenophon
Out: Joyce, Ludlam, Nash, Roberts, Waters

Hahahahaha so Turnbull how about how you said the High Court would hold Barnaby a citizen?

Australian politics continues to give ridiculous drama and excitement better than any soap opera.
 
So a by-election for New England then.

I hope Joyce loses and brings down this sewer of a government. Only, him losing probably wouldn't make any difference would it, if those key crossbenchers keep granting Turnbull supply (for reasons best known to themselves).
 
Kieran McConville said:
So a by-election for New England then.

I hope Joyce loses and brings down this sewer of a government. Only, him losing probably wouldn't make any difference would it, if those key crossbenchers keep granting Turnbull supply (for reasons best known to themselves).
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Windsor's declared that he won't run in the by-election, which should make life easier for Barnaby. The ALP hasn't held New England since 1913! It's been Country/National since 1920, with the exception of Windsor and of the first Country member who defected to sit as an independent in 1922.

McGowan has confirmed she would support the government in a vote of confidence, and I expect Katter would too. So yeah, even if an opposition-aligned candidate won, the government would just hang on. On the other hand, I'm not clear if McGowan's pledge is only until the seat is actually filled, and could be swayed away afterwards.
 
Ah, right, I didn't realise Windsor wasn't intending to run (not that he would necessarily win of course).

I just feel like we're in the days of Billy McMahon; it's over, but we have to go on pretending for another two years.
 
Yeah, Windsor only just announced it, said he doesn't want to put his wife through another campaign. I honestly thought he was going to challenge.

Also, I've read the judgement and, put simply, it appears Canavan survived because the Italian law is so complex that it's not fully clear whether he is actually a citizen. :lol:
 
I'd be curious to hear the crossbenchers who grant this current government supply justify some day just what exactly are their reasons for doing so.
 
I think McGowan needs to prove to her electorate that she's not some leftie city blow-in.

Katter's obviously crazy.

Bandt obviously would support the ALP if they brought on a confidence vote and I assume Wilkie would. I'm guessing NXT (is it Sharkie in the lower house? I think so) would be more likely than not to back it.

Off the top of my head, if New England falls to a candidate opposed to the government, all crossbenchers, including Katter, would have to vote against the government to bring it down, 75-74 (with the Speaker not voting).

But granting confidence and supply is one thing; supporting the government's legislative agenda is another. And Katter and McGowan are independent enough that they might wreck it. They could bring on an early election. The Coalition has most likely lost anyway; Turnbull, if he has any sense of preservation greater than himself, would be insane to cling to power. You get the feeling if the Coalition hold on to 2019, they will be in such disarray that they would lose worse than if there's an election next year.
 
Axver said:
I think McGowan needs to prove to her electorate that she's not some leftie city blow-in.

Katter's obviously crazy.

Bandt obviously would support the ALP if they brought on a confidence vote and I assume Wilkie would. I'm guessing NXT (is it Sharkie in the lower house? I think so) would be more likely than not to back it.

Off the top of my head, if New England falls to a candidate opposed to the government, all crossbenchers, including Katter, would have to vote against the government to bring it down, 75-74 (with the Speaker not voting).

But granting confidence and supply is one thing; supporting the government's legislative agenda is another. And Katter and McGowan are independent enough that they might wreck it. They could bring on an early election. The Coalition has most likely lost anyway; Turnbull, if he has any sense of preservation greater than himself, would be insane to cling to power. You get the feeling if the Coalition hold on to 2019, they will be in such disarray that they would lose worse than if there's an election next year.
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Katter's crazy enough that his personal following might actually stick by him granting Labor supply. Not that he ever would; all hat and no cattle as they used to say in Texas.

McGowan, I'm sure you're right about her reasons. Although she entered parliament primarily on the back of toppling the excrebile Sophie Mirabella.

That's just it, isn't it. They're so badly holed below the waterline, and you know Turnbull personally never got over last July. The sense of wanton resentment and reckless malice is strong about this outfit. They might be stubborn enough to try hanging on for the time being. If there's any justice in this world, the reckoning should be epic this time. The policy wishlist that came into office with Abbott in 2013 demonstrated clearly that the Liberals are finished, ideologically. Like the Bourbons, they've forgotten nothing and learned nothing. Delayed reckoning for the 2007 Howard demolition is yet to be faced (if ever). But I'm too old to be fooled twice.

My record on calling elections is not great.
 
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I'm not sure Katter's grip on Kennedy is as strong as it may seem. The last time he won it without recourse to preferences was 1996, when he was still a Nat. In 2013 he came distant second on first preferences but enough ALP votes flowed on to him to keep him in parliament. A good challenger and he could be in trouble.

The problem for McGowan is that she faced a strong National challenge in 2016 amid concerns she could lean a bit too left. Mirabella had shat the bed so many times that even my wireless keyboard could've beaten her in 2013.

We can but hope the next election is devastating for the government. They'll get destroyed in Victoria for sure. I wouldn't want to be a right-wing politician at any level of Victorian politics at the moment. South Australia will depend on Xenophon, and whether his party counts for shit if he's not running personally. NSW politics is less pleasant than sticking your hand in a hungry tiger's mouth. Queensland I'm really worried about. Can't say much for WA or Tassie at this stage.

I just want to watch the Tories fall. I've got my popcorn ready.
 
Ditto.

Yeah, true enough about Katter, although that it was ALP preferences helping him tells me a bit about that constituency. He'd be incredibly vulnerable to the right kind of challenger, given that he is after all, all hat and no cattle, but it would have to be just the right kind. Labour should take a real shot at his seat sometime, Bob's not going to live forever.

I know you like to go on about hick Queensland, and there's plenty of that, our version of the Ugly American, but it was also the cradle of the Labour party, and there's still some of that (relative) radicalism buried deep in the compost. Lest we forget, the country's only ever Communist MP was a Queenslander. I maintain that the likes of the Murdoch press have to twist and tweak that heritage to ply their trade up here. Heavy on the platitudes and the mawkishness, light on the content. But that could swing hard one of these days.
 
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Kennedy is a fucking weird seat. It's basically been a family dynasty, Riordan father and son for the ALP from 1929 until 1966, and then Katter Sr and Jr from then to now with only the brief interregnum of Rob Hulls (ALP) in 1990-93. But on recent results the LNP has overtaken the ALP as the second party so I'm not sure a concerted ALP effort would succeed.

I say I'm worried about Queensland because One Nation is polling alarmingly well. Queensland is a weird confusion of Labour-aligned economic beliefs and unbridled racism. I suppose this was not a "weird confusion" in the first half of the twentieth century. But now it is, and it's a hard one for Queensland Labour to play.
 
I agree One Nation is polling higher here than one might like. How that would translate into seats at a state election is another matter (and what would become of those new incumbents another again; the sorry history of the famous Eleven elected at the 1998 poll is instructive).

The first version of One Nation was a very weird mish-mash, it seemed to attract the sorts you would expect on the far right, but it also seemed to attract candidates who were... politically naive, and drawn in by some other noble-type intention, and just not even clued up about the darker currents of the scene. Seriously, one candidate from this city in 1998 was a lecturer in human resources management at the uni I went to, and she was... not the profile you'd expect.

The current version of One Nation strikes me as even worse, composed of chancers, cranks and dodgy businessmen who probably shouldn't be preselected.

I will say this though; the minority Labor government has been fairly weak tea. They should be travelling a lot better than they are, but the genuine awfulness of the preceding Newman regime is fast fading down the memory hole, and you can't just run on negatives.

*Their handling of the whole Adani business is a separate matter; I can't tell if they're corrupt (on both sides of the aisle) - quite possible - naive, clueless, or, if they are well aware the project is a dog that will never go ahead, but just don't want to be seen to have been its executioners. Cause, jobs, you know (not that there would be many, maybe any, in the long run of increasing mine automation). In either case, as John Quiggin remarked recently, the Australian people will end up the proud owners of a rail line to nowhere and a couple of airstrips to take you there.
 
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I'll be very curious to see how both major parties preference One Nation. I think the days of the Liberals taking the high road and putting One Nation last are gone, and that they would happily form government with a bunch of ratbags than risk the ALP remaining in charge.

The Adani thing is just baffling to me. I suppose it fits into a sort of ALP developmental/employment tradition, except that tradition has been dead practically everywhere since about the 1970s - and they would've done anything to avoid working with a massive corporation even back in the heady days of industrial expansion, it would've been state-run and there'd be suspicions about any private business involved being nationalised.

But what do you do if this is a big issue for you as a voter? Anybody who changes their vote to the LNP in the belief they would handle Adani better is fucking deluded. But the Greens are weaker in Queensland than elsewhere, and it's only really in Victoria and Tasmania where they are strong enough to hold the balance of power and force a change. So... stick with the ALP dicking around and trying to figure out whether supporting it or killing it is the bigger vote-loser, and hoping that it falls over of its own accord first?
 
I think the ALP are pretty much picking the final course, hoping it falls over of its own accord and avoid getting wedged on jobs, jobs, jobs.

Now, how much of a 'thing' it is for voters outside of places like Townsville, I'm not sure. In Brisbane or the south-east, it's probably not of massive interest, except as something the government wants to avoid looking anti-JOBS on.

The Greens seem shockingly weak in Queensland, but it's not as though they don't exist, they just can't seem to get a foot in the door. The ability to 'just vote one' could have a bit to do with it. Preferences, if I'm not wildly misunderstanding the situation, play a slightly lesser role than they do in some other states and in federal elections. Not, I mean, that the Greens have ever (with rare exceptions) managed to get to be that second-ranked person in the count, who might actually benefit from preference flows.
 
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Off the top of my head, somebody - probably Antony Green, but maybe it was one of the other online psephologists - did an analysis of preference trends in Queensland state elections. At the first couple of optional preferential elections, preferences continued to flow at a similar rate to previously (or at federal elections), in no small part because the parties themselves issued HTV cards with full preferences. But when Beattie went hard on the "just vote 1" angle, it changed. And of course now you're back to full preferences and that could give the Greens a leg up.

But certainly at state level the Greens are much stronger in NSW, TAS, and VIC than elsewhere.

As for Adani, it seems like a pretty big thing among my little Facebook bubble, including older soft-left Queenslanders who I'm worried will vote LNP to spite the ALP. But that's indicative of nothing at all.

My gut instinct is that the LNP will form government, continuing this period of extraordinary political instability in Queensland.
 
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