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Old 09-23-2016, 03:23 AM   #631
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'centrist / liberal greyness' pretty much describes that paper's entire political line, except on trendy social issues where they are of course radicalism personified (or something).

Even in the local corner; Katherine Murphy will still be waiting patiently for the 'real Malcolm Turnbull' this time next year. Come out, come out, wherever you are!
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Old 09-23-2016, 03:28 AM   #632
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'centrist / liberal greyness' pretty much describes that paper's entire political line, except on trendy social issues where they are of course radicalism personified (or something).
Also describes 60-70% of FYM contributors.
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Old 09-23-2016, 03:34 AM   #633
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Also describes 60-70% of FYM contributors.
No, they're far-left progressives. You wouldn't understand. You haven't been around noisy black people.

Geez man, get it right.
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Old 09-23-2016, 03:36 AM   #634
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That guy's political beliefs are such a mess, there's so little continuity there.
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Old 09-23-2016, 03:42 AM   #635
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I wanted to like BigMacphisto for a while, and even now I don't really consider him/her a troll (a troll is anyone who departs from the grey centrist line), but after some recent posts I've grown weary of him/her.
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Old 09-23-2016, 03:59 AM   #636
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In the sense of a troll being somebody who posts to deliberately get a rise out of a forum, I think he has been a troll for some months now.

I was willing to assume some generosity in my view of him for a while though, as it seemed we weren't coming from too different a place ideologically, even if he had some obvious inconsistencies and wasn't as left-wing as he thinks he is. But now that his posts openly peddle crude caricatures and lazy generalisations of black people and women, my patience has run out completely. Those sorts of traditions may have a firm historical place in much of the left, but not any form of the left I recognise or choose to be a part of.

This US election is definitely bringing out the worst in people.

I fear the next three years of Australian politics will bring out the worst in people here too. Malcolm Roberts already makes me want to thrust my head through a brick wall.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 09-23-2016, 09:00 AM   #637
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In the sense of a troll being somebody who posts to deliberately get a rise out of a forum, I think he has been a troll for some months now.

I was willing to assume some generosity in my view of him for a while though, as it seemed we weren't coming from too different a place ideologically, even if he had some obvious inconsistencies and wasn't as left-wing as he thinks he is. But now that his posts openly peddle crude caricatures and lazy generalisations of black people and women, my patience has run out completely. Those sorts of traditions may have a firm historical place in much of the left, but not any form of the left I recognise or choose to be a part of.

This US election is definitely bringing out the worst in people.

I fear the next three years of Australian politics will bring out the worst in people here too. Malcolm Roberts already makes me want to thrust my head through a brick wall.

As I say, I have wearied of him (her?) and not only on account of the race thing.

If you think this US election is bad times for FYM you should check out Crooked Timber, one of the bigger blogs I keep an eye on. There are some vicious faultlines opening up. And it's not like I can't see where different people are coming from. Oh yes, I knew all the talking points long before (most) anyone at FYM cottoned on to them.

Worryingly, one of my take-homes from what I keep half an eye on is that the support for Hillary Clinton is extremely flakey. There are the zealots, and then there's everybody else. And everybody else could easily stay home. It's a turnout question at this point, nothing else.

I dunno, locally, politics could go any which way. It could put us all to sleep, or it could get really ugly. Or both. I just can't get past the fact that this corpse of a government somehow crawled back in on the skin of their heels. They are truly the fag-end of an epoch. Their answers are the same old answers that have been bandied about since the Reagan revolution. They're dead but they don't know it yet. The trouble is, we're all still alive.
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Old 09-23-2016, 09:21 AM   #638
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If you think this US election is bad times for FYM you should check out Crooked Timber, one of the bigger blogs I keep an eye on. There are some vicious faultlines opening up. And it's not like I can't see where different people are coming from. Oh yes, I knew all the talking points long before (most) anyone at FYM cottoned on to them.

Worryingly, one of my take-homes from what I keep half an eye on is that the support for Hillary Clinton is extremely flakey. There are the zealots, and then there's everybody else. And everybody else could easily stay home. It's a turnout question at this point, nothing else.
To be honest, I think the flakiness of Clinton's support and suggestions of her widespread unlikeability/unpopularity is exaggerated. Now, admittedly, neither of us are in America, but if you move beyond the feelpinions and anecdotes that seem to drive FYM and a lot of online commentary, the data indicates Clinton has a fantastic ground game.

What's the narrative of the Democrat primaries? That Sanders had an active and enthusiastic base who turned out in droves, while Clinton could get barely a single person to give two shits about her. What do the numbers say? She not only beat him, but beat him convincingly - in a competition largely restricted to the true believers who are more likely than the average voter to support a fringe candidate (I use "fringe" loosely, in that Sanders sits outside the post-WWII to War on Terror mainstream). I mean, this is why Tea Partiers keep winning primaries and losing elections: because primaries favour ideologues who can mobilise a base but not a whole electorate. An ideologue mobilised his base and still couldn't get close to Clinton.

Always come back to the numbers. This is why so much of my research these days is tending towards economic history, much as everybody thinks it's boring. Often my reaction can be boiled down to "fuck you, show me the numbers", and that's been very true of arguments about this political cycle.

So, OK, Clinton outflanked her internal rival. But there's the oompa loompa. What we also know is that she's got a well-oiled, cashed-up machine with a heavy presence in marginal states, while Trump can hardly be fucked to fund his campaign properly, is relying on free media from shithouse journalists who aren't properly trained in their profession or who do know better but like the dollarydoos, and has a mediocre presence on the ground anywhere, let alone where it is most needed. Perhaps the narrative about Clinton is true and more Democrats than usual will stay home - but because her ground game is well targeted, the people who stay home will mostly be in states where it doesn't matter anyway. In the Floridas, Ohios, Pennsylvanias, etc. of this world, she will turn out the vote.

Geez, sorry, that's tl;dr.

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I dunno, locally, politics could go any which way. It could put us all to sleep, or it could get really ugly. Or both. I just can't get past the fact that this corpse of a government somehow crawled back in on the skin of their heels. They are truly the fag-end of an epoch. Their answers are the same old answers that have been bandied about since the Reagan revolution. They're dead but they don't know it yet. The trouble is, we're all still alive.
The one thing I don't expect is to be sleepy, to be honest. But maybe that's because I'm a political junkie. I suppose I see your broader point - that there is a good likelihood of widespread disengagement. And that's not mutually exclusive from ugliness - in fact, I think they need each other. The more people become disengaged, the more of a void there is for the loud ugly opinions to fill.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 09-23-2016, 10:30 AM   #639
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Yeah, it's not Clinton's personal likeability or whatever that interests me. The Democrats have a good, maybe great ground game (they've gained a lot from the Howard Dean and then Obama experiments). That said the Republicans seem to have mostly lined up like good little dogs behind Trump, so his personal campaign incompetence is what it is I guess. Maybe this is the last election for a while where R and D in front of the name still drive the outcome.

Locally, I still think this will be a short term, so in that sense it could be interesting. As for the loud ugly opinions, how much of the day to day business of government do the likes of Hanson or The Living Soul have anything to contribute to?
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Old 09-23-2016, 10:37 AM   #640
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What's the narrative of the Democrat primaries? That Sanders had an active and enthusiastic base who turned out in droves, while Clinton could get barely a single person to give two shits about her. What do the numbers say? She not only beat him, but beat him convincingly - in a competition largely restricted to the true believers who are more likely than the average voter to support a fringe candidate (I use "fringe" loosely, in that Sanders sits outside the post-WWII to War on Terror mainstream).
Well, it depends on what you mean by close, I suppose. She beat him respectably, but the narrative was that she wasn't supposed to be challenged at all, not convincingly, not this year. The competition furthermore was restricted to registered Democrats, who... really? More likely to support a fringe candidate? I don't agree with that assessment at all. Not that it matters now. It's up to the party's ground game.
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Old 09-23-2016, 10:40 AM   #641
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I suspect most moderate Republicans are just mumbling words so that if Trump crashes and burns they can turn around and say "yeah actually I saw it coming" while if he somehow succeeds their heads stay on their shoulders.

What concerns me about the next three years down here is that I fear the cranks do have more influence than ever before, at least on what legislation passes the parliament. And I'll give Malcolm Roberts one thing: he can produce a good soundbite. I want to believe this is the peak of the right-wing drift of the past few decades and that the tide will now shift, but I cannot bring myself to be that optimistic - after all, I thought we would have a reflex away from Abbott and the mindless idiocy he represents.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 09-23-2016, 10:44 AM   #642
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Well, it depends on what you mean by close, I suppose. She beat him respectably, but the narrative was that she wasn't supposed to be challenged at all, not convincingly, not this year. The competition furthermore was restricted to registered Democrats, who... really? More likely to support a fringe candidate? I don't agree with that assessment at all. Not that it matters now. It's up to the party's ground game.
The registration requirements change from state to state so it does make some aspects of analysis more difficult. And Sanders did do better in open primaries than closed ones.

But we do know that party preselection processes skew towards extremes. When you are only competing among ideologically likeminded people, how do you prove yourself? You ramp up your ideological purity. People inclined to show up to preselection processes of any kind are true believers. I think it's telling that, despite the alleged rampant popularity of Sanders, there were still millions more "true believers" turning out for Clinton.

(But I do take your point that there wasn't meant to be any challenge at all.)
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 09-24-2016, 06:59 AM   #643
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Jezza has won the Labour leadership election with 62% of the vote, and even though the party barred something like 150,000+ members from voting.
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Old 09-24-2016, 07:02 AM   #644
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And it's a bigger majority than the first time around.

Well at least there's a labour party out there that does internal division even more spectacularly than Australia's.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 09-24-2016, 07:30 AM   #645
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What concerns me about the next three years down here is that I fear the cranks do have more influence than ever before, at least on what legislation passes the parliament. And I'll give Malcolm Roberts one thing: he can produce a good soundbite. I want to believe this is the peak of the right-wing drift of the past few decades and that the tide will now shift, but I cannot bring myself to be that optimistic - after all, I thought we would have a reflex away from Abbott and the mindless idiocy he represents.

The trouble is you're (not you personally, but people generally) dealing with two different right wings. There's the right wing drift of privatise everything and let the devil take the hindmost, and then there's the sort of Alan Jones / Pauline Hanson right wing. It was a good trick for a while keeping these horses tethered, as with the GOP in America. But it's come badly unstuck.

All that said, people on this forum were talking about civil war when the first Abbott government won office. One has to get a grip sometimes. Real ugly comes by degrees and so I'd never be that guy to claim 'it can never happen here' (we had the world's largest private fascist army in Sydney in the thirties), but even so. This country is still fat and happy enough, in its way, that I fear less the jackboot than I do the simple complacency.
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