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Old 09-01-2016, 05:05 PM   #1
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Weather Discussion Thread

Interesting weather discussions have popped up in other threads and they are worth talking about as newsworthy items

I have a degree in Meteorology and am watching closely what is going on with Hermine in the Gulf. We haven't had a category 3 hurricane make landfall in the US in over a decade. One of the longest stretches in recorded history. Hermine is likely to come in as Category 1 Hurricane in Florida tonight and the weaken to tropical storm status as it rides up through Georgia and Carolinas.

What makes Hermine interesting is that once it reemerges off the Mid-Atlantic it will stall out and become a Hurricane again. This will place it 50-100 miles off the NJ coast for potentially 3 days. It won't make landfall like Sandy, but the constant tidal surge over 72 hours will devastate beaches from Rhode Island to Virginia. The water is extremely warm this year in that area and can provide the fuel to keep Hermine healthy.

Feel free to shoot any questions. If you are a weather junkie I can post some good links.

Stay Safe
-O


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Old 09-01-2016, 06:19 PM   #2
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Old 09-01-2016, 06:58 PM   #3
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Oh I like this thread. We were just having a debate at work about whether Floridians were blowing the current situation out of proportion. I saw a great quote backing up my side yesterday, something akin to, "just because the winds are 70 miles an hour rather than 75,doesnt make them any less dangerous."

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Old 09-01-2016, 07:05 PM   #4
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The building I live in is a block from the East River, technically below sea level, and took on extensive damage during Hurricane Sandy... so the predictions regarding the storm stalling out off the coast has me very worried.

They did a lot of work moving electrical equipment and vital infrastructure to higher ground after the insurance money came in, but I still have my doubts.

Really hoping this thing doesn't stall out.
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Old 09-01-2016, 07:46 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bono_212 View Post
Oh I like this thread. We were just having a debate at work about whether Floridians were blowing the current situation out of proportion. I saw a great quote backing up my side yesterday, something akin to, "just because the winds are 70 miles an hour rather than 75,doesnt make them any less dangerous."

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The big threat in Florida will be tornadoes in some of the onshore rain bands. Typically with Hurricanes you are not looking a big F5 Oklahoma. Instead the thunderstorm bands that cycle through spawn F0-F1 tornadoes.

Headache - I looked at the computer models and unfortunately there is no cold front to boot it out to sea until the end of next week. It could literally just sit and spin off the Jersey-Delaware coast for 5 days. Very rare for a Hurricane at that latitude not to get pushed out to sea quickly. Given that position the water will just surge into the NJ coastline - NY Harbor. Each high tide will be amplified greatly. Spread the word.
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Old 09-01-2016, 07:52 PM   #6
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Heavy rains and abnormal tidal surges are always an issue for me as I live essentially in marshland a half mile from the ocean. Crawl space gets rising ground water in these situations. Had a sump pump installed 6 weeks after moving in (2006) when I came home to the crawl space filled to the brim, but if power goes out as well, pump is useless.
So here's to Hermine picking up speed and tracking east towards Europe.
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Old 09-01-2016, 07:54 PM   #7
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Heavy rains and abnormal tidal surges are always an issue for me as I live essentially in marshland a half mile from the ocean. Crawl space gets rising ground water in these situations. Had a sump pump installed 6 weeks after moving in (2006) when I came home to the crawl space filled to the brim, but if power goes out as well, pump is useless.
So here's to Hermine picking up speed and tracking east towards Europe.
Where do you live exactly? I can give you a better estimate of what you can expect.
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Old 09-01-2016, 07:58 PM   #8
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Where do you live exactly? I can give you a better estimate of what you can expect.
Marshfield, MA.
So far seems we are far enough north that it won't be too bad (compared to a lot of other places), but as you know these things are always unpredictable.
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Old 09-01-2016, 08:01 PM   #9
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Hoping all of you in or near the path of this thing stay safe.
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Old 09-01-2016, 08:06 PM   #10
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Marshfield, MA.
So far seems we are far enough north that it won't be too bad (compared to a lot of other places), but as you know these things are always unpredictable.
The Cape should act as a natural buffer. I'd still expect higher than average water levels.
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Old 09-01-2016, 09:54 PM   #11
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I have family in Bradenton, FL.
Will they be in the clear?


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Old 09-01-2016, 10:04 PM   #12
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What's crazy is Hermine is strengthening as it comes onshore, winds are now up to 80 mph.


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Old 09-01-2016, 10:49 PM   #13
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I have family in Bradenton, FL.
Will they be in the clear?


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They'll just have endure some squall lines of thunderstorms. The center is coming in well north in a sparsely populated area

BTW: The name Hermine is super-lame, Harambe would have been a much better choice
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Old 09-01-2016, 11:24 PM   #14
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I keep reading the storm's name as Hermione.


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Old 09-01-2016, 11:42 PM   #15
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if power goes out as well, pump is useless.

Get a battery backup for the pump, or even a second pump that operates on a battery (the heavy-duty batteries, not a bunch of AAs). That's what we have to get us through the monster Midwest thunderstorms that are guaranteed to knock out the power.
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