US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania

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anitram said:
It's true that there aren't good stats on head-to-head numbers in individual states yet but in the battlegrounds, here is how Trump's net approval rating changed between taking office in Jan 2017 and last month (per Morning Consult):

Wisconsin: From +6 to -14
Michigan: From +7 to -11
PA: From +10 to -8

Others on your list:
NC: From +17 to -1
NV: From +10 to -11
AZ: From +19 to -7

That is basically horrific. He's underwater everywhere and while a place like NC may be close, it really is starting to look like WI/MI/PA are going to be out of reach. That is basically as much as confirmed given that the Republicans are targeting Minnesota, NV, NH and NM, precisely because the math simply isn't there for them. Not the 2016 map anyway.

All of this may mean nothing until the election interference kicks in full force.
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Some other state numbers from realclearpolitics

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders EPIC-MRA Sanders 48, Trump 44 Sanders +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren EPIC-MRA Warren 49, Trump 43 Warren +6
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris EPIC-MRA Harris 46, Trump 43 Harris +3

Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 45, Trump 43 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders OH Predictive Insights Trump 44, Sanders 34 Trump +10
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren OH Predictive Insights Trump 44, Warren 43 Trump +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris OH Predictive Insights Trump 44, Harris 36 Trump +8
Arizona: Trump vs. Buttigieg OH Predictive Insights Trump 43, Buttigieg 38 Trump +5

Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Colorado: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 53, Trump 46 Warren +7
Colorado: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Trump 45 Sanders +10
Colorado: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 51, Trump 48 Harris +3
Colorado: Trump vs. Buttigieg Emerson Buttigieg 55, Trump 45 Buttigieg +10


Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Gravis Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren Gravis Trump 47, Warren 46 Trump +1
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders Gravis Trump 44, Sanders 47 Sanders +3
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris Gravis Trump 45, Harris 45 Tie
Nevada: Trump vs. Buttigieg Gravis Trump 46, Buttigieg 42 Trump +4

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Civitas/SurveyUSA Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders Civitas/SurveyUSA Sanders 47, Trump 43 Sanders +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren Civitas/SurveyUSA Trump 43, Warren 44 Warren +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Civitas/SurveyUSA Trump 44, Harris 43 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Buttigieg Civitas/SurveyUSA Trump 43, Buttigieg 41 Trump +2

Interesting to see the state polls. But again, so early, and different after a candidate is chosen.
 
That Biden story is reminiscent of Hillary landing in Bosnia under fire or some such.
 
one of the things i love about canada is that we're only just now getting loads of political ads on tv ahead of our federal election, and voting day is less than two months away.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
He's a gigantic goofball. He's done an ok job running the city - better than I thought. He hasn't undone the positive progress of the Bloomberg years - which is ironic considering how much he ran on an anti-Bloomberg platform. City has major infrastructure concerns coming quickly down the pike, though - and he's been off galavanting around the nation as the literal last clown in a jam packed clown car - so it's about time he got himself back to the city and did some actual work, but he seems content to just kick that can down the road like everyone else.

Clearly I don't miss NYC at all... most people keep up to date on the political happenings in a city they moved from 2 1/2 years ago. Seriously.


I miss NYC [emoji24]
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:therethere:

womanfish said:
LOL!! My guess is the next thing we see is Lindsay Graham at the border knocking ranchers over the head with a shovel, and tying them up so their land can be seized.
(And if anyone would enjoy tying up a manly rancher it would li'l Lindsay)
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:lol:

prbiker15 said:
“As usual”

We don’t choose the hurricanes, asshole. :doh:
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PR is like "The Island" on Lost. (SPOILER)



It moves it's location so it can be hit by hurricanes.


Glad most of your island was spared this tine!


Headache in a Suitcase said:
and sorry for the tweet post storm (i know twitter posts aren't as legitimate as videos from facebook groups featuring Candace Owens, so i do apologize) but this seems like a big deal if it can be verified elsewhere...

https://twitter.com/TimOBrien/status/1166554423516172293
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Who's @Lawrence? Lawrence O'Donell of msnbc?
 
dazzledbylight said:
Interesting, dave c.

What's the current landscape of (oh)Canada's upcoming fed elections like?
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the liberal party will lose seats. a couple months ago it looked like they/trudeau might even lose power completely but that seems to have passed now that the campaign is actually starting and people are paying attention a little bit more. there's also a new nationwide alt-right party that has ideas most canadians think are nuts and is led by an absolute bozo but is also sucking away a decent number of votes from the conservatives. they won't win any seats themselves but they will probably help get a liberal or two elected in a rural seat in ontario.

the likely outcome is that the liberals stay in power but go from a majority to a minority government, with another left-ish party (the NDP) holding the balance of power.
 
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One wonders if Mar-A-Lago is insured? If so, he’d make more money were it swept out to sea. But he tends to not like to pay for things.

I’m just wondering if I should be cheering for Dorian or not.
 
Idk at what point the internet decided that it would be funny to start “cheering on” a hurricane. I mean sure, generally human life in the US is well protected from storms, but that’s still one of the most populated areas in Florida. Heck, it’s not even a “conservative” area.
“Cheering” a hurricane on to hit anywhere is pretty low.
 
Irvine511 said:
One wonders if Mar-A-Lago is insured? If so, he’d make more money were it swept out to sea. But he tends to not like to pay for things.

I’m just wondering if I should be cheering for Dorian or not.
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i was about to say "he wouldn't be able to get a business license in florida without the proper insurance" but then i realized that it wouldn't surprise me in the least to find out mar-a-lago isn't licensed, so who the fuck knows.

the best man at my wedding is named dorian so we've been having a lot of fun with this one.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Idk at what point the internet decided that it would be funny to start “cheering on” a hurricane. I mean sure, generally human life in the US is well protected from storms, but that’s still one of the most populated areas in Florida. Heck, it’s not even a “conservative” area.
“Cheering” a hurricane on to hit anywhere is pretty low.
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I’m being totally serious.

If you’re so concerned about hurricanes why aren’t you advocating nuking them before they get so close to Florida?

Gotta nuke something.
 
Irvine511 said:
I’m being totally serious.

If you’re so concerned about hurricanes why aren’t you advocating nuking them before they get so close to Florida?

Gotta nuke something.
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I wasn’t responding to just you. It’s all over the internet. Clearly you’re joking, but in general that’s not the vibe.

Can we not make everything about commander Cheeto?
 
Just wait until it sinks and then your good taxpaying dollars go to building and even uglier monstrosity in its place.
 
I'm wondering what Trump's response to Florida hurricane would be if Gillam had been elected.

Probably something about a lazy, low IQ, corrupt (AKA. black) governor isn't able to use Federal funding...
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Yes, then I’ll totally lose sight of my hometown and half of my family’s property and well-being.
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On a serious note, is there anything serious being done in Florida to combat the inevitable sea level rise? It just seems like a disaster waiting to happen, except we at least have the benefit of foresight to take some proactive steps. Or is Florida a "there is no such thing as climate change" state politically? Which would even be more bewildering seeing as how many other vulnerable places in the world are really concerned and putting in all sorts of interesting contingency plans.
 
DaveC said:
the likely outcome is that the liberals stay in power but go from a majority to a minority government, with another left-ish party (the NDP) holding the balance of power.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals keep their majority.

Unlike so many people (many internationally), I don't have a high opinion at all of our Prime Minister. I think that he's inexperienced, not particularly bright and clearly corrupt (see: SNC-Lavalin). But his time in office has been pretty unremarkable and uneventful and while economic indicators for Canada are really awful if you dig down, most people feel that they are maintaining the status quo. It also helps that the Conservatives (through the terrible and undemocratic way in which party leaders are chosen) again chose a person who is so ill-suited to the leadership role that you could have lined up 10 Liberal scandals and the average person would still not vote for the Conservatives. It is based on nothing, but when I look at Andrew Scheer, I think of the sort of middle aged guy ogling girls in the food court of a mall. And I am a person who is persuadable to vote for almost any of our parties. So I can only imagine how unpopular he is with the rest of the public. The NDP leader is totally useless and out of his depth so he'll get the typical seats that the NDP picks up and not much more.
 
anitram said:
On a serious note, is there anything serious being done in Florida to combat the inevitable sea level rise? It just seems like a disaster waiting to happen, except we at least have the benefit of foresight to take some proactive steps. Or is Florida a "there is no such thing as climate change" state politically? Which would even be more bewildering seeing as how many other vulnerable places in the world are really concerned and putting in all sorts of interesting contingency plans.
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What’s gotten into you today? On a serious note? I wasn’t kidding before. No, the state that sits barely above sea level with most of its population near the water doesn’t just “not believe.” Like a load of US states, sure there’s a boatload of redneck folk who can make the news, but when it comes to coral reefs, beach erosion, the Everglades, rising temperatures, and the agriculture Florida relies on, people are well aware.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
What’s gotten into you today? On a serious note?
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Apologies to you - I was referencing the whole slew of posts before that. I think others have already mentioned they were not serious, and I would hope the others were as well.

The reason I asked is that I've been doing some work in the sustainability field on an ad hoc basis, it's a new area of law for me and I've become more familiar with certain US measures on a state level which are relevant to corporate work. In any event, I just haven't gotten the sense that there is material/substantive action being done in Florida which surprises me given that the stakes are so much higher than in a number of other jurisdictions which appear to be making actual strides, no matter how slowly.
 
anitram said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals keep their majority.

Unlike so many people (many internationally), I don't have a high opinion at all of our Prime Minister. I think that he's inexperienced, not particularly bright and clearly corrupt (see: SNC-Lavalin). But his time in office has been pretty unremarkable and uneventful and while economic indicators for Canada are really awful if you dig down, most people feel that they are maintaining the status quo. It also helps that the Conservatives (through the terrible and undemocratic way in which party leaders are chosen) again chose a person who is so ill-suited to the leadership role that you could have lined up 10 Liberal scandals and the average person would still not vote for the Conservatives. It is based on nothing, but when I look at Andrew Scheer, I think of the sort of middle aged guy ogling girls in the food court of a mall. And I am a person who is persuadable to vote for almost any of our parties. So I can only imagine how unpopular he is with the rest of the public. The NDP leader is totally useless and out of his depth so he'll get the typical seats that the NDP picks up and not much more.
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oh, totally. trudeau is the only leader with actual national campaign experience, or even much charisma at all. it shouldn't take too much effort for him to run circles around them once the campaign actually officially kicks off. scheer has already shown in the last couple days that he doesn't have much more of a message than hammering voters over the head with SNC again and again, and anyone who would actually care about that already knows all about it and has made up their minds on it either way. and like you said, singh is in wayyy over his head - a rookie back-bench provincial MPP going straight to federal party leader (instead of running for the provincial party leadership or even just a regular federal MP seat first and gaining a few years' experience with literally any of that stuff before jumping into the deep end) was spectacularly stupid of him and the party.

i can totally see a strong campaign by trudeau up against a snoozefest from scheer (who is now clearly scared of publicly saying anything the liberals can use against him, and his base is clearly angry that he's not publicly saying those things) and the NDP being basically ignored outside of downtown toronto and BC, and that leading to another liberal majority, for sure. i still think it's likely almost certain that the party will lose seats from what they have now (especially in quebec and the GTA suburbs) but in two months they can certainly flip some of those that are leaning blue now.

i hope you're right because i'm generally pretty happy with how the last 4 years have gone, aside from some personal things about trudeau i'm not a big fan of, and the ditching of electoral reform. basically i think the odds right now are probably like this:
liberal minority: 50%
liberal majority: 25%
conservative minority: 20%
conservative majority: 4%
ndp minority: >1%
ndp majority: -100%
 
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