True situation within Greece

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I think we all know what happened the last time Europe bathed together with fascism.
 
I think we all know what happened the last time Europe bathed together with fascism.

But does Greece have that much influence over Europe? Germany was more of a superpower, or maybe a former superpower, in the 1930s.
 
It doesn't, but then Greece isn't the only country with rampant fascist groups, there's also Hungary for example.

These sorts of economic conditions can become a breeding ground for fascist groups.
 
It's only Europe self-destructing.

Last week it was the italian elections after the non-elected-technocrat Mario Monti-government. Many say the results were a surprise. For me it wasn't.
Bersani, a dinossaur of the center-left only got 25,4% and 29,5% linked with other small left parties. It was the "hope" to get Italy out of it, but Bersani is so empty, so cliché'd, so weak, that only got it.
Surprisingly, Berlusconi got back and other 1/4 of the voters choosed him again.
The biggest surprise was Pepe Grillo, a populist ex-comedian who doesn't have an ideological vision of society,just random populist proposals and a anti-politicians speech. Of course it's not any wonder why he got 25,5% of the votes.
Mario Monti, supported by a few right parties only got 9% or 10%. So, the solution that Merkel and the EU choose for Italy without the italians consentment... Lost, by far. The problem is that, just as the german SPD leader, Steinbruck, said, half of the italians voted in two clowns. One of them very well known, Berlusconi, the other, new, Grillo.

Now, no one wants to link with no one and Italy remains ungovernable.
First, Greece. Now, Italy.

I'm living in Spain now and the situation is not very different from Portugal. Spain basically is living Portugal's movie with a delay of 18 months.

In Spain people are angry. I'm living in Catalunya, and there's a strong and crescent anger, but most of all a crescent separatist will. Many people here want Catalunya to become independent. There'll be a referendum next year. No one knows what's gonna be the result, because the public opinion is too much volatile now.
In Basque Country it's not very different, obviously.
Spain has now an unemployment rate of 27% and many people are being evicted from their homes. Firemen are refusing to help with it.

In Portugal it's a bit different. Yesterday there was another demonstration all over the country with more than 10% of the population of the whole country adehering. There are differences with the September demonstration. In September people were still hopeful, screaming and hoping things still could change a little.
Yesterday, you could easily see that people are mostly sad, hopeless, and thinking that this Government is not falling even if a asteroid hits their headquarters. It was more emotional, specially when people all over the country sang in unison one of the main songs of the 1974 revolution.
The present portuguese Government is mostly a dead-walking, who doesn't have the popular support of almost no social sector (neither the employers, neither the church, neither many people of their own parties), only of the "troika" and the President of the Republic who's a mummy that "doesn't exist", who's also "dead". The public debt is now in 123%, the structural deficit is way bigger than told, our real income decreased about 20% (including/mostly unemployed and pensionists), the scandals around the Government are almost daily - in "normal times" this Government wouldn't even last 4 months. The "social contract" was tear with no mercy and the Government still insists in putting social/professional classes against others and humiliating social classes/groups (last week, the new insult was saying that those who are employed are accomodated, for instance), etc. The (official) unemployment rate is now 17,6% - remembering that in 1999 it was 4% and in 2005 was 7%.
But the Government, not only refused to resign, as it insists on an ideological programme that wasn't voted and that's pure social engineering. I hear many times that this Government is Neo-Liberalist. I'm an anti-Liberalism, but I disagree. This Governement's ideology is the Social-Utilitarism.

I couldn't take it anymore and decided to come to the neighbour Spain. Spain is not much better (the unemployment rate, as I told, Europe's worse, 27% is pure madness), but I had to get way from it.

This is Europe.
 
Aygo, I've heard that a lot of Catalan nationalism has stemmed from Catalonia being relatively better off than the rest of Spain, which has created resentment in Catalonia about the amount of money flowing out of Catalonia to the rest of Spain. Do you think that that is a fair assessment of what is happening?
 
Aygo, I've heard that a lot of Catalan nationalism has stemmed from Catalonia being relatively better off than the rest of Spain, which has created resentment in Catalonia about the amount of money flowing out of Catalonia to the rest of Spain. Do you think that that is a fair assessment of what is happening?

In part that's true. Of all the spanish autonomic regions, Catalunya is one of the richest, one of those who produces more, who contributes more to the whole country and, consequently, to the other regions. But that's part of the truth. Spain is an assimetric federation where different regions have different levels of autonomy from the central power, from each other. For example, in Catalunya, there are certain taxes that the local government charge and retain in Catalunya, which money from the taxes that doesn't go to Spain. That doesn't happen, for instance, in Andaluzia or in Castilla-la-Mancha.

Another data I forgot about Portugal: immigration.
Portugal has today an official unemployment rate of 17,6%. But these 17,6% do not include those who are not registred in the Public Job Centers, those who simply gave up searching for a job (many are long-term unemployed), but most of all, do not include the immigrants.
On the last two years (2011 and 2012), at least 200 000 people left Portugal to live and work in another country. If we remind that Portugal's population is about 10,5 million, then, 2% of the population immigrated. And we know that most of these immigrants are no longer poor unlettered families, but the biggest part are young people with high educational skills, where the State invested on the last decades and now says that this country doesn't have a place for them. Unemployment rate under 35 yrs old is 40% in Portugal (over 50% in Greece and Spain), and the general one is 17,6%, but if we add all these classes, specially those 200 000 immigrants, the number is much bigger.
 
Reading Aygo's reports, it's like the world is entering a dark age.

OK, I'm exaggerating, but everything seems so bleak now in terms of the economy and employment.
 
Rather troubling news out of Cyprus

BBC News - Cyprus economy 'on the brink', Bank of Cyprus warns

It's past time for an EU banking union, I think.

This is awfully reminiscent of what happened in Iceland, at least in my mind. Small island nation with a massive reliance on banking fueled by deposits from foreigners... if the banks tank, so goes the economy. Brussels and Berlin are still being rather pro-cyclical. The ECB wants a significant amount of money from Cyprus for a bailout of the banking system. The Cypriot government tried to do a one-time tax on savings of up to nearly 10% to fund that, but that would be disastrous, and public outcry pretty much shut that down. Banks are on bank holiday for the time being, so the only access to money is via ATMs, which generally managing to stay supplied with money, but with limits on withdrawals (I believe that Laiki, the bank that is under the biggest threat, has that limit set to €240). Cyprus wants a bailout from Moscow, as a third of deposits in its banks are Russian (it's a nice tax haven for Russian billionaires), but that seems unlikely. There are natural gas reserves off the coast that have been used as offers to try to get some people to give up money (including savers and Russia), but they're somewhat disputed with Turkey and no one seems to be taking. It's a bit of a mess.
 
The Cypriot government tried to do a one-time tax on savings of up to nearly 10% to fund that, but that would be disastrous, and public outcry pretty much shut that down.

Actually that is probably a relatively likely outcome and also the less "bad" of the two possible outcomes.

First possibility - the Cyprus proposal which includes a tax on deposits of over 100,000 Euro (probably in the range of 15-20%), nationalization of Cyprus state pensions and securitization of future gas earnings. This was rejected by the EU/IMF because of the latter two prongs of the proposal, leaving the one time tax as the only plausible mechanism, which would have to be implemented by imposing capital controls to prevent bank runs.

Second possibility - Cyprus leaves the Euro. Much less likely than #1 because Cyprus wants to remain a banking centre (also the main reason that the one-time tax was rejected by the general public). Obviously leaving the Euro kills that. Furthermore, leaving the Euro would result in major losses because all deposits would be redenominated in a new, devalued currency.

Both of these outcomes are bad, it's only a question of which is less bad (IMO #1).
 
I still think that #1 is the best option and that it could happen. What is the better alternative? Nationalizing pensions (Germans rightly won't agree), or borrowing against the country's future gold & gas revenues? So that future generations have the pleasure of paying down enormous debts and Russian oligarchs make off like bandits?

What a shitty situation. Also a shitty way to run a country and an economy. And it sucks for them that it's happening some 6 months before the German election, so you Angela Merkel isn't going to be writing massive bailout cheques.
 
I don't think number 1 will happen.
so i guess there needs to be a number 3 option

Looks like I was bang on and #1 is happening at a rate of at least 20%, maybe as much as 40%.
 
Looks like I was bang on and #1 is happening at a rate of at least 20%, maybe as much as 40%.

looks like Laiki bank might even be a wipe-out...

i could well imagine there will be bank runs across the rest of Europe now as people try to protect their savings...

The bank restructuring deal
Full details of the Cyprus deal are still emerging this morning, but the top line is that wealthy depositors are being hit much harder than in the original plan.

Here's what we understand:

• All deposits under €100k have been protected.

• Laiki Bank (or Popular Bank) will be wound down and split into a 'good' and 'bad' bank. Thousands of jobs are likely to be lost.

• The 'good' bit of Laiki (smaller savers) will being moulded into Bank of Cyprus.

• The bad bit, containing its uninsured deposits and toxic assets, will be wound down over time.

• Those with savings over €100,000 at Laiki, along with bond holders and shareholders, will all make a "full contribution" to the restructuring. That is being taken as a signal that wealthy depositors could be wiped out completely - but the full picture may take a while to emerge.

As Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research put it:

Whilst there was no official confirmation I assume that deposit holders over €100k in Laiki Bank will be totally wiped out, but that is just an assumption from the language used.

• Uninsured deposits (€100k and above) in Bank of Cyprus will be frozen, and remain suspended until the bank has been recapitalised. It's not clear what haircut they will suffer -- there was talk of 40% plus in Brussels last night.
 
WAY to raise confidence!
someone kick these fucking bureaucrats out now!


"The interview has sent the euro sliding, and pushed shares down across Europe. Trading in several Italian banks have just been temporarily suspended (for dropping more than 5%)." what a surprise :rolleyes:

i actually think i'm glad i owe the banks more money than they owe me :D

Dijsselbloem: Cyprus deal is template for the future
Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem has sent the euro tumbling by declaring that the Cyprus rescue should be seen as a template for the rest of the eurozone.

In an interview with reporters in Brussels after the Cyprus plan was agreed, Dijsselbloem argued that Europe could now take a new approach to tackling struggling banks.

Dijsselbloem said (via Reuters):

What we've done last night is what I call pushing back the risks.

If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be 'Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalise yourself?'.

If the bank can't do it, then we'll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders, we'll ask them to contribute in recapitalising the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders.

Dijsselbloem, who began his term as Eurogroup president by presiding over the botched original bailout for Cyprus, argues that it's fair for big depositors to take the hit:

If we want to have a healthy, sound financial sector, the only way is to say, 'Look, there where you take on the risks, you must deal with them, and if you can't deal with them, then you shouldn't have taken them on....

The consequences may be that it's the end of story, and that is an approach that I think, now that we are out of the heat of the crisis, we should take

That last line is a concern -- are we really in calm waters now? With no stable government in Italy (or even an instable one), Greece trudging through another year of recession, Portugal and Ireland striving to exit their bailout. And don't even mention France.

The key to Dijsselbloem's comments is that he's suggesting that Europe will no longer need the ESM -- the €700bn bazooka that was meant to be on standby to prevent a banking collapse, by injecting new capital when needed.

He said:

We should aim at a situation where we will never need to even consider direct recapitalisation.

If we have even more instruments in terms of bail-in and how far we can go on bail-in, the need for direct recap will become smaller and smaller.

The interview has sent the euro sliding, and pushed shares down across Europe. Trading in several Italian banks have just been temporarily suspended (for dropping more than 5%).
 
I don't know why anyone with $ in a Spanish, Portuguese, Italian bank (just to name a few) would keep any of it in there given that comment.
 
I don't know why anyone with $ in a Spanish, Portuguese, Italian bank (just to name a few) would keep any of it in there given that comment.

it's kind of crazy they're doing this, seeing that the whole banking system is based on trust... i mean, they're seriously just ASKING for a massive run on the banks aren't they...

it's a template for legalised theft, pure and simple, i'm actually quite gobsmacked by this really... they say they're trying to lighten the burden on the taxpayer, but this is getting into unknown territory...

i mean, at least here in France people were able to vote and say no to Melenchon's proposed massive taxes on income over 100,000, whereas these poor bastards have had the shock of their lives and no choice or warning in the matter - there's loads of pensioners and small/medium businesses hit by this...
 
Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.
 
Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.

a bail out for Cyprus would've been a drop in the ocean compared with other struggling EU countries (plus only part of Cyprus is affected - this only involves half of the country - it's a relatively tiny amount of debt compared to the whole EZ picture)... i just don't understand why the eurogroup has had to inflame the whole situation this way...
 
Cypress is an island with less than 11 million people. Why give (lend) them more money? They are super broke and in way over their head in debt now. Where does it go? It's not like they have an income stream that is capable or paying more debt back? is it?

Maybe they should become part of Africa.

Do have an idea of how much money we're talking about in the Cyprus bailout? You don't? I'll tell you.

€10 billion [in the american way, in Europe we say €10 000 million]. Do you know how much it represents in the whole EU GDP? A microbe!

Portugal's "bailout" was €78 billion. Spain will need €300, Italy €400/500, and let's not talk about France and Germany.

So, the EU is playing with the fire (again, fuck!! for the hundreth time) because of... €5 billion (because the other €5 billion would be supported by the State)?

Are you f***ing kidding me?

I only want these psychopats that are on the European institutions out of there, specially those who were not elected by anyone, like Van Rompuy, Juncker and all that eurotrash.

And there's people who come to me talking about a federation?!
I don't want a federation!... If this is the prospect of a federation, I reject it.
There were only two ways of forcing Europe to become one: by military force or by the monetary force. We're living the second option.

Also, don't tell me that this is not Germany's heavy hand, because Merkel's and today's Schauble's statements leave clear to me that this is, in most part, their decision, their imposition and their pyromany.
Why? Because Germany has federal elections within 6 months, Merkel's CDU (and Bavaria's CSU) has 40% on opinion pollings. No wonder... With the media selling the germans the lie that they're paying for the other lazy ones...

For those who think that Cyprus is a mere half-island in the east mediterranean, go read more about it and why such a small country is so dangerous and so potentially explosive... And why the EU (that is, Germany) don't give a f*** about it.
 
I must recall that this month's is the 60th birthday of the forgiveness of 62% of Germany's public debt because of their "funny games" (not to mention the next forgiveness, 22 years ago).

But it seems that this country's historical memory is little or none. That's the only answer I find for so much damage done to the others and, soon, to them selves.
 
Cypress is an island

Or a tree. :sexywink:

With respect to why there was no bailout of a relatively small amount of money, it's because the Cyprus government didn't do what they were told to do (implement austerity, etc). So the EU really went out and made an example of them, which is easy to make given Cyprus' size and GDP relative to EU's totals.
 
Wolfgang Schaüble said a few days ago that some countries in the EU are jealous of Germany.
Well, those who feel envied have to feel superior relatively to those who supposedly envy.

To me this only confirms what I already thought about Merkel's Finances Minister: he's a sinister and macabre character of the History of Germany (and of Europe). He's only throwing fuel to the fire, showing that he (as a representative of the German society) doesn't have any historical memory and that he's repeating the exact same errors of 80 years ago. To me it's no surprise, it only confirms what I already thought. For some who weren't expecting this, it might be.
 
The next victims are already targeted:

- Malta that has also a small country with some doubtful financial operations
- Luxembourg that has a bancary sector and a financial sector that represent 25 and 50% of the country GDP, respectively
- Slovenia, which has a fragile government, and official unemployment rate of 14% and whose interests (for debt of 10 years) went from 5% to 7% in only one week

Also Liechtenstein, which doesn't belong to the EU, but that's dependant from central Europe economies, such as Germany and Switzerland, decided to follow its austerity program.
 
Merkel doesn't want any kind of confusion, don't even want the countries to move until she wins elections in September.
Well, there's another hole in her purposes.

Yesterday, as predictable, the Portuguese Constitucional Court rejected the Budget for 2013.
In this case of obvious unconstitutionalisms, it was the President's function to ask for the preventive supervision of the Budget to the Constitutional Court.

The president, who's from the same party of the government, didn't ask for it in 2012.
The Constitutional Court declared unconstitutional 2 laws from 2012's Budget, because 2 small left parties asked for that supervision. But since it was already July, the Constitutional Court said that, although unconstitutional, and since there were some urgency economically, it would open an exception.

What did the Government do for 2013, whose Prime-Minister declared he doesn't like the Constitution?
Go even further and provoke/violate the Constitution even more.

Again, it was the small left parties to ask for the subsequent supervision of the 2013 Budget. They asked the supervision of 9 laws of the document. The big center-left party and the President went after them (not to be behind the train) and asked the subsequent supervision of only 3 laws.

It was expected that he Constitutional Court would reject 1 or 2 of the laws of the 2013 Budget.
Yesterday it was announced that important 4 laws are unconstitutional and that there are no exceptions opened (because a Constitution cannot be suspended).

The Government, who's the one who intentionally made an unconstitutional budget, says now that this is the Court's responsibility.

In only one week, the Government faced: the biggest party in the opposition (center-left) who presented a censure motion (who was rejected because the right wing has the majority); the Prime-Minister who lost his "right-arm" (a Minister who's the biggest mafious crook and his biggest friend); and now the clear rejection of the Budget (who's a huge fail for the autist Minister of the Finances). No one wants these guys in the Government, not even many of the voters of the right.
The result? They're gonna stay with the support of the President who doesn't want elections because that's a headache for him.

The media say that the Government is negociating this weekend a second bailout and preparing to put the blame in the Constitutional Court (who's not a legislator, just a mere guardian of the Constitution).

The metal logic of these psychopats is:

1) How to lead the people wanting a minimal state (rejecting the welfare state) where they pay little in taxes?
ANSWER) Raise the taxes to unbearable levels with nothing to offer them in exchange for the services of the welfare state.

2) How to eliminate the welfare state model?
A) Devaluing quality of the public services, causing people to prefer private services. Beginning in the National Health System, transforming Social Security into assistencialism and mutualism, and continuing to finance the private system at the expense of public.

3) How to lead people to think that the presidential system is better?
A) Having as President a dead-walking from the same party that does not move, leading people to think that it is better to have a President with 10x more power than it has in the current regime.

4) These guys hate the Constitution and, in 2010, the present Prime-Minister wanted to change it almost completely. How to convince people that the Constitution we have is bad?
A) Violating, ripping, going over and playing consistently with the Law of Maximum Republic.
A) Making blatantly unconstitutional laws and then say it is the fault of the Constitution that is bad and not the legislator that does not respect the law who is submitted to.
A) Blackmailing the Constitutional Court and throwing the trump card of "Oh yeah, you rejected my budget? Then I ordered a second "bailout" and I'm telling people it is the fault of Court and the Constitution. "
 
I heard that locals on a Greek island took it to the fascists, even threw one into the sea. Brought a smile to my face.
 
Europe desperately needs a banking union.

It's too late now. Cyprus, Greece and Portugal are already leaving the Euro (unoficially, but in the end that's what's happening) and dragging down the other countries with it, because of the incompetence, intolerance and because of bad, trashy, european leaders.
Bye-bye Europa. It's was good as it lasted.
 
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