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Old 05-18-2012, 02:53 AM   #136
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why does the euro need to survive at such cost to the people? it's just a fucking ideology!

i'll tell you what, life has got so much more expensive in Europe WITH the euro - prices are insane... it's getting hard to make ends meet day to day...

i don't think tighter fiscal integration will work - Europe has always been divided, and historical attempts to unite Europe, i.e. Napoléon and Hitler, were futile and deemed a BAD thing back then!

it's not like the US where the working population can move freely to where the money/jobs are - otherwise you would have Greeks being able to move easily to Germany to work, which is not the case... what with the massive language and cultural barriers for a start...

this whole thing is incredibly distressing - forget WWII - this is WWIII, an economic war in which bankers and faceless corporations can bring a country down at the touch of a button - the whole thing is out of control and maddening - how did we get here? insanity!

ps- that Economist article is too late re. Spain - the run on the banks there has already started...
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Old 05-18-2012, 08:08 AM   #137
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The problem is that life will get much more expensive for most countries if the euro ends. Yes, for a country like Portugal, a weak and small economy, it's unbearable to have a currency that is as strong as the german Mark was. But if we leave the euro or if the euro ends, it'll be even worse to get back to the Escudo. Yeah, we'll be able to devalue our debt and exports will be favored. But the inflation and the loss of purchasing power, as well as the price of import products, it'll be dramatic.
So, I don't know what's worse.

Fiscal harmonization, eurobonds, letting the ECB works as a "normal" central bank, etc... Even if all that would happen now, I'm afraid it's too late. It's not gonna solve the problem, neither it's core. The Euro was heavily badly structured, with more benefits for some economies and now it's too late 'cause we can't get back. And getting back would be even worse.

I predict 4 months for Greece to leave the Euro. 6 months for the military to take control of the political power over there.
6 months (max.) for Spain to ask for financial assistance by the IMF (which will require all the money available in the EU, so it means that there's no money for Italy, who's next).
12 months for Portugal to ask for a second bailout program, because we'll follow Greece's story, but a year late.
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Old 05-18-2012, 08:25 AM   #138
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what if everybody just ditches the euro and goes back to their own currency, leaving countries to adjust their exchange rates as before? maybe that would make things more competitive again and more flexible all round?

here in France, we still have prices in "French francs" shown on most labels, cash register receipts, and bank statements... maybe it's been in the back of people's mind all along!

it's going to be a very worrying few months anyway...
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Old 06-08-2012, 08:42 PM   #139
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Here it is:
Spain expected to ask for a bailout tomorrow.

Mariano Rajoy, the UE and the press, say it's a bailout for the failling banks.
Well, Portugal received €78 000 milions (or €78 billions, in american language)... And most of that money was, part to the banks (€12 billions), and the most part to pay to thr creditors. No real money came to the economy... In fact, our debt increased from 86% of GDP to 120% next year.

That's what's gonna happen to Spain... As it was easily predictable, because the steps have been the exact same of Portugal, with the difference we're a year ahead, and Greece two years ahead.

The other difference is that Spain is a big economy and Rajoy has already warned Merkel he won't reduce the budget deficit as fast as hard as she forces the others. Why? Because Spain can do so... And because spanish are not as subservient as we portuguese are.

Next stop for the vultures: Italy. I give them other 6 months.
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Old 06-10-2012, 07:10 PM   #140
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We're in uncharted waters now. I think Ireland/Greece/Portugal cannot survive in the eurozone and will default. Don't know about Italy and Spain, but surely there is not enough left to bail them out, not properly? The Spanish bailout is a joke, doesn't remotely address the situation. It is starting to look like a northern zone of selected eurozone countries may emerge, Merkel was strongly hinting at this the other day.

Ireland will presumably ultimately return to a peg with sterling, which in my view is not the worst option.
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Old 06-11-2012, 07:59 PM   #141
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We're in uncharted waters now. I think Ireland/Greece/Portugal cannot survive in the eurozone and will default. Don't know about Italy and Spain, but surely there is not enough left to bail them out, not properly? The Spanish bailout is a joke, doesn't remotely address the situation. It is starting to look like a northern zone of selected eurozone countries may emerge, Merkel was strongly hinting at this the other day.

Ireland will presumably ultimately return to a peg with sterling, which in my view is not the worst option.
The Spain question is quite complicated. They have the biggest "bubble" in the real state market in Europe. It's not people's fault. It's the banks fault who created path for this situation. Plus, Spain always had chronical high rates of unemployment, but it's Europe's biggest: 25%(!).

Now the curiosities... Just like Ireland, before the crisis, not only Spain also had a superavit in the budget, but they had one of the lowest public debts in Europe (63% of GDP in 2009). Plus, since 2009, the ancient (pseudo-)socialist had already been approving austerity measures in advance to most countries and preventing Merkel's warnings that they must cut, cut and cut.

Is it spanish people's fault? Is it the lack of austerity? I don't think so.
It's the reverse: the more austerity applied, the more the situation degrades.

It's mostly incredible how spanish situation, the film of their last 18 months took the exact same steps, the exact same speeches in the specific timmings... Just like in Portugal. It was predictable this was gonna happen to spanish from Portugal's vision.
So it means that Italy's obviously next.
And then, France.

The problem is that Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos (who was in charge of the negociations) said yesterday to the EU, to Merkel and to the IFM, in the middle of the reunion something like: «Ok, you want to force Spain to ask for a bailout, but if so, get €500 000 million for Spain and other €700 000 million for Italy who'll be coming right after us».

On the other hand, the reason why Germany doesn't want eurobonds, ECB working as a normal central bank, money print, but mostly inflation is... That Germany has been going to the financial markets and borrowing money with interests near zero (two week ago it was 0,07% for money at 2 years term). Germany is asking money with no interests to borrow to Spain (it's not for the spanish banks, let's be practical... the banks will absorbe it, but it's the spanish people who'll pay for it) with interests of 4 or 5%.

Someone's earning money with these forced and programmed bailouts and it's not those who ask for it.

About Greece... SYRIZA (socialist radical left) can win, but New Democracy (conservatives) may win too, but no solution will work, I think. Greece will obviously leave the Euro, probably the EU and will become again a regime of coronels.
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Old 06-16-2012, 08:57 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Aygo View Post
The Spain question is quite complicated. They have the biggest "bubble" in the real state market in Europe. It's not people's fault. It's the banks fault who created path for this situation. Plus, Spain always had chronical high rates of unemployment, but it's Europe's biggest: 25%(!).

Now the curiosities... Just like Ireland, before the crisis, not only Spain also had a superavit in the budget, but they had one of the lowest public debts in Europe (63% of GDP in 2009). Plus, since 2009, the ancient (pseudo-)socialist had already been approving austerity measures in advance to most countries and preventing Merkel's warnings that they must cut, cut and cut.

Is it spanish people's fault? Is it the lack of austerity? I don't think so.
It's the reverse: the more austerity applied, the more the situation degrades.

It's mostly incredible how spanish situation, the film of their last 18 months took the exact same steps, the exact same speeches in the specific timmings... Just like in Portugal. It was predictable this was gonna happen to spanish from Portugal's vision.
So it means that Italy's obviously next.
And then, France.

The problem is that Spanish Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos (who was in charge of the negociations) said yesterday to the EU, to Merkel and to the IFM, in the middle of the reunion something like: «Ok, you want to force Spain to ask for a bailout, but if so, get €500 000 million for Spain and other €700 000 million for Italy who'll be coming right after us».

On the other hand, the reason why Germany doesn't want eurobonds, ECB working as a normal central bank, money print, but mostly inflation is... That Germany has been going to the financial markets and borrowing money with interests near zero (two week ago it was 0,07% for money at 2 years term). Germany is asking money with no interests to borrow to Spain (it's not for the spanish banks, let's be practical... the banks will absorbe it, but it's the spanish people who'll pay for it) with interests of 4 or 5%.

Someone's earning money with these forced and programmed bailouts and it's not those who ask for it.

About Greece... SYRIZA (socialist radical left) can win, but New Democracy (conservatives) may win too, but no solution will work, I think. Greece will obviously leave the Euro, probably the EU and will become again a regime of coronels.

Seriously why the hell would anyone want to be a part of the EU anymore? It is as corrupt as hell and has no interest in the smaller nations such as us.
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Old 06-16-2012, 09:22 PM   #143
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Seriously why the hell would anyone want to be a part of the EU anymore? It is as corrupt as hell and has no interest in the smaller nations such as us.
By the way, how are things in Ireland?
Portuguese propaganda isn't very clear. The media and the Government say «look at Ireland, they're the proof that austerity works and cleans the house». But on the other hand, analysts and journalists say that the irish situation is not as "pink" as the media paints and that the program is not working as well. Who's speaking the truth here?

What about the opinion in Ireland about the parties? The opinion pollings say that people want to punish Enda Kenny's party for being the face of those who are applying the memorandum? Or in the other hand, people understandit and they still feel that it really is Fianna Fáil's fault?
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Old 06-17-2012, 09:20 PM   #144
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Greek conservatives win, head into coalition talks | Fox News
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Old 06-17-2012, 10:27 PM   #145
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With 99% of the votes counted:

New Democracy [conservative right]: 29,66% / 129 deputees [already with the 50 bonus, which is an institucionalized coup d'État, 'cause no one voted for these 50 plus]SYRIZA [radical socialists]: 26,89% / 71
PASOK [social-democratic self-called socialists]: 12,28% / 33
ANEL/Independent Greeks [dissidents from New Democracy]: 7,51% / 20
Chrysi Avgi/Golden Dawn [neonazi party]: 6,92% / 18
DIMAR [socialists dissidents from PASOK]: 6,25% / 17
KKE [greek communist party]: 4,50% / 12

300 deputees total, which means majority is reached at 151.

Here's the deal:
ND [New Democracy] claims it wants a large government with PASOK, DIMAR and SYRIZA, although in the end, Antonis Samaras perfectly knows that only PASOK would accept a coalition.
PASOK's Venizelos says that he'll join a coalition, only if SYRIZA joins too.
SYRIZA, unlike PASOK and ND who accept the agreement, wants to reject the agreement and the austerity, so it could never join in a government with ND and PASOK. Only DIMAR claims to be opened to a coalition with SYRIZA.

Here's what I think:
ND will follow into a minoritary Government alone with ad hoc parlamentary agreements with PASOK. PASOK may even accept to enter the government. But either solution will result in a very weak government what will fall within months.
PASOK and ND are two big families (political, but also in oligarchy and corporations) that traditionally hate and always competed each other.

I predict that Greece will have elections... Again... Soon.
It'll probably have elections after elections, the austerity will not stop, social tension and impoverishment either, and the Army will take control of the political power, turning Greece into a regime of Coronel (like in the 1960's) and be a gateway to Russia and Turkey.
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Old 06-17-2012, 10:29 PM   #146
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What fine headline work by Fox News

I guess it's true, their audience will fall for anything they write.
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Old 06-17-2012, 10:43 PM   #147
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By the way, how are things in Ireland?
Portuguese propaganda isn't very clear. The media and the Government say «look at Ireland, they're the proof that austerity works and cleans the house». But on the other hand, analysts and journalists say that the irish situation is not as "pink" as the media paints and that the program is not working as well. Who's speaking the truth here?
Ireland looks like precisely what it is - an economy suffering the aftermath of a leveraged property bubble, one of the most extreme in recorded history. On the plus side, young people lucky enough still to have jobs can afford to buy houses at a reasonable price, once again.

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What about the opinion in Ireland about the parties? The opinion pollings say that people want to punish Enda Kenny's party for being the face of those who are applying the memorandum? Or in the other hand, people understandit and they still feel that it really is Fianna Fáil's fault?
I tend to take the long term view of such matters. FF, FG and for that matter Labour were all complicit. That said, I expect FG to be re-elected, as most people, understandably, blame FF in large part, as it was the party that presided over the false boom and resultant crash. I am not particularly a fan of Enda Kenny's party, but when he said at the Davos meeting recently - "In my country, people went mad borrowing" -

Enda Kenny "Irish People Went Mad" - YouTube


- everyone in Ireland got on their high horse and complained, but I thought he was right - it was a truism really, to me.
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Old 06-17-2012, 10:51 PM   #148
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Ireland looks like precisely what it is - an economy suffering the aftermaths of a leveraged property bubble, one of the most extreme in recording history. On the plus side, young people lucky enough still to have jobs can afford to buy houses at a reasonable price, once again.



I tend to take the long term view of such matters. FF, FG and for that matter Labour were all complicit. That said, I expect FG to be re-elected, as most people, understandably, blame FF in large part, as it was the party that presided over the false boom and resultant crash. I am not particularly a fan of Enda Kenny's party, but when he said at the Davos meeting recently - "In my country, people went mad borrowing" -

Enda Kenny "Irish People Went Mad" - YouTube


- everyone in Ireland got on their high horse and complained, but I thought he was right - it was a truism really, to me.
I don't know much about what happens in Ireland, media don't talk about Ireland here, but I found some Enda Kenny's statements interesting.

When Ireland asked for bailout I remember Kenny explicitly saying to the people something «this is not your fault».

I found interesting because it's the opposite of our PM, Passos Coelho.
Passos Coelho has already said things like: «People have to withstand the punishment and don't be corny», "Unemployment is an opportunity", and he and his Ministers have already said many times for the young people to emmigrate because there's no space for them here. The media and the ministers repeat until exaustion the expression «You people lived beyond your means» (which obviously is not true).
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Old 06-17-2012, 10:56 PM   #149
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I don't know much about what happens in Ireland, media don't talk about Ireland here, but I found some Enda Kenny's statements interesting.

When Ireland asked for bailout I remember Kenny explicitly saying to the people something «this is not your fault».

I found interesting because it's the opposite of our PM, Passos Coelho.
Passos Coelho has already said things like: «People have to withstand the punishment and don't be corny», "Unemployment is an opportunity", and he and his Ministers have already said many times for the young people to emmigrate because there's no space for them here. The media and the ministers repeat until exaustion the expression «You people lived beyond your means» (which obviously is not true).
Well, I am aware, from chatting to Portuguese counterparts, even 4 or 5 years ago, they were saying there was no boom in Portugal. In Ireland, we seem to have gotten the benefits of the boom - or bubble, as I prefer to call it - and also of course suffered the effects of the resultant crash. I suppose it is because of this that we do not complain too loudly. Lest Angela will hear us, and increase our taxes even more, heh heh.
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Old 06-17-2012, 11:04 PM   #150
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What fine headline work by Fox News

I guess it's true, their audience will fall for anything they write.
Actually, to be fair, the Fox article - not that I'd usually defend them - is similar to how it's been portrayed in the European media. I wasn't aware of that 50 seats bonus thing until I read it in Aygo's post. Which of itself is pretty scary.
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