namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
This was being discussed a little in the election thread, so I thought I'd start a separate thread for it. If someone wants to merge, feel free. My thoughts:
For the Democrat Party:
For the Democrats, there's only three names I've heard so far:
Hillary Rodham Clinton(United States Secretary Of State under President Obama, Former United States Senator from the state of New York, Former First Lady Of The United States) - Like everyone in the media has already said, the nomination is hers if she wants it. MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell(who I guess has connections) said during the Democratic Convention that she is indeed planning on running in 2016 regardless of what she says publicly now, and that that is why she's stepping down as SOS. She's clearly the best nominee for 2016, imo. I liked her a lot in 2008 despite supporting President Obama(I just really loved Obama and also felt like Hillary was still too polarizing for the general election in 2008). I feel like her 2008 campaign and her stint as a very popular SOS has made her an even stronger candidate, and I feel like an additional eight years removed from her time as first lady makes her less polarizing than she once was.
Personally, I'll go as far as to say that if she does run, I think any other Democrat that was thinking about running should step back - in light of how close the 2008 primary was and of how overwhelming a favorite she'll be - and let her run unopposed during the primaries, so she can save her money/energy/political capital for the general election, and to ensure that she'll be the first major party female nominee in U.S. History, with a very real shot at becoming the first female president in U.S. History, following the first African-American president in U.S. History. That would be tremendous, and it would also give the Democratic Party its first third consecutive presidential term since FDR(and only the second third consecutive term for either party since FDR, after Reagan-Reagan-H.W.Bush did it for the GOP).
Joseph Biden(Vice President Of The United States, Former United States Senator from the state of Delaware) - I love Biden. When Obama was picking his running mate in 2008, Biden was my first choice. During that whole time when all the VP candidates were being talked about everywhere, I always thought, 'it's gotta be Biden', and I was elated when he was indeed the pick. I think he's been one of the best VPs of the past few decades. But I'm really not sure if he should run in 2016. He's hinted that he might. If he runs, he'll be 73 for most of the campaign and he'll turn 74 right after the election. He has a reputation for being gaffe-prone, and unfortunately a lot of people don't seem to take him too seriously. I love Biden, but I don't think he can win.
Andrew Cuomo(Governor Of New York) - I really don't know too much about him, other than that he's Mario Cuomo's son, Chris Cuomo's brother, and the governor of New York, but it's said that after Hillary, he's the second biggest Democratic name for 2016. New York legalized gay marriage under his watch, which is great, but from what I've read about him, he's described as a conservative Democrat, a blue dog, a Reagan Democrat, etc. Not sure that's what I want. I also read an article that cited sources as saying that if Bill and Hillary asked Cuomo to step aside in 2016, he would. Will be interesting to learn more about him as he gains more national exposure.
For the Republican Party:
I think the 2016 Republican field is going to be a lot more serious, substantive, and interesting than the 2012 field. I don't think Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, or Herman Cain are coming back for an encore. This isn't going to be the circus that 2012 was, imo.
Chris Christie(Governor Of New Jersey) - He is the clear frontrunner to me. I think he is not only far and away the best candidate the GOP could nominate in 2016, but that he would also be the best Republican nominee, period, since probably Reagan or at least George H.W. Bush(in 1988). He's got the gravitas and charisma, the popularity, and I think he has credibility with both the moderate conservatives(that still exist in droves even if they're near-extinct among elected officials) and the tea party(how sad is it that the tea party has to be accounted for now?). Simply put, he can win. Even against Hillary, he can win. If anyone's concerned about his weight, well, I wouldn't be surprised if he sheds some of it if he decides to run. Like Huckabee did in 2008. Anyway, if he runs, it's gotta be him for the GOP.
Jeb Bush(Former Governor Of Florida) - He's the other 'heavyweight', if you want to call him that, that's being talked about right now. My basic opinion is that GWB is just too heavy a weight for Jeb to carry around his neck. I've seen Jeb speak twice recently, once at the GOP convention and once at some rally that MSNBC showed some of, and both times he spent part of his speech defending his brother. If that's going to be staple of every campaign rally, he can forget it. That won't fly. And even if he never mentions GWB, everyone will still know he's the brother of one of the least liked(by both parties currently) presidents ever, and that he had a hand in the Florida 2000 debacle when he was governor there. I just think he can't win with GWB around his neck.
Paul Ryan(2012 United States Vice Presidential Candidate, United States Congressman from the state of Wisconsin) - I don't understand people saying he's a frontrunner for 2016. John Boehner said Ryan is a policy wonk and I think that's an apt description. I don't think Ryan has the gravitas to win a presidential campaign. He just strikes me as a lightweight in that regard. GOP is absolutely nuts imo if they nominate Ryan over Christie.
Mitch Daniels(Governor Of Indiana) - A lot of people wanted him to run in 2012 and were disappointed when he didn't. I've only actually heard him speak once, when he delivered the response to the SOTU. He didn't seem crazy like some of the other 2012 candidates, but he did seem to be pushing the tea party line of spending cuts, spending cuts, spending cuts. I think the biggest problem with him though might be the same thing a lot of people felt about Al Gore(wrongly, imo): that he's just boring to listen to. No charisma. I can't see him getting nominated.
Bobby Jindal(Governor Of Louisiana) - I honestly thought he was done in national politics after his SOTU response debacle, but his recent comments about the GOP are encouraging and also indicate that he might well be in for 2016. If he keeps talking like that though, I don't know if the tea party will accept it.
Rick Santorum(Former United States Senator from the state of Pennsylvania) - His number one issue is social conservatism. At this point, I don't think any candidate can win when he spends so much time talking about abortion and gay marriage. The GOP needs to back off the conservative social agenda if they want to win. I think more and more people in the party are realizing that. I don't think Santorum will do as well in 2016 if he runs as he did in 2012.
Mike Huckabee(Former Governor Of Arkansas) - I guess he's leading a GOP poll in Iowa. I don't really think it means anything, though. I think he'll have the same problems as Santorum as a social conservative. He certainly can't win a general election.
Rand Paul(United States Congressman from the state of Kentucky) - Some people are saying he will run in 2016 in order to carry the Libertarian torch on a big stage like his father has. Obviously he won't win.
Discuss.
For the Democrat Party:
For the Democrats, there's only three names I've heard so far:
Hillary Rodham Clinton(United States Secretary Of State under President Obama, Former United States Senator from the state of New York, Former First Lady Of The United States) - Like everyone in the media has already said, the nomination is hers if she wants it. MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell(who I guess has connections) said during the Democratic Convention that she is indeed planning on running in 2016 regardless of what she says publicly now, and that that is why she's stepping down as SOS. She's clearly the best nominee for 2016, imo. I liked her a lot in 2008 despite supporting President Obama(I just really loved Obama and also felt like Hillary was still too polarizing for the general election in 2008). I feel like her 2008 campaign and her stint as a very popular SOS has made her an even stronger candidate, and I feel like an additional eight years removed from her time as first lady makes her less polarizing than she once was.
Personally, I'll go as far as to say that if she does run, I think any other Democrat that was thinking about running should step back - in light of how close the 2008 primary was and of how overwhelming a favorite she'll be - and let her run unopposed during the primaries, so she can save her money/energy/political capital for the general election, and to ensure that she'll be the first major party female nominee in U.S. History, with a very real shot at becoming the first female president in U.S. History, following the first African-American president in U.S. History. That would be tremendous, and it would also give the Democratic Party its first third consecutive presidential term since FDR(and only the second third consecutive term for either party since FDR, after Reagan-Reagan-H.W.Bush did it for the GOP).
Joseph Biden(Vice President Of The United States, Former United States Senator from the state of Delaware) - I love Biden. When Obama was picking his running mate in 2008, Biden was my first choice. During that whole time when all the VP candidates were being talked about everywhere, I always thought, 'it's gotta be Biden', and I was elated when he was indeed the pick. I think he's been one of the best VPs of the past few decades. But I'm really not sure if he should run in 2016. He's hinted that he might. If he runs, he'll be 73 for most of the campaign and he'll turn 74 right after the election. He has a reputation for being gaffe-prone, and unfortunately a lot of people don't seem to take him too seriously. I love Biden, but I don't think he can win.
Andrew Cuomo(Governor Of New York) - I really don't know too much about him, other than that he's Mario Cuomo's son, Chris Cuomo's brother, and the governor of New York, but it's said that after Hillary, he's the second biggest Democratic name for 2016. New York legalized gay marriage under his watch, which is great, but from what I've read about him, he's described as a conservative Democrat, a blue dog, a Reagan Democrat, etc. Not sure that's what I want. I also read an article that cited sources as saying that if Bill and Hillary asked Cuomo to step aside in 2016, he would. Will be interesting to learn more about him as he gains more national exposure.
For the Republican Party:
I think the 2016 Republican field is going to be a lot more serious, substantive, and interesting than the 2012 field. I don't think Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, or Herman Cain are coming back for an encore. This isn't going to be the circus that 2012 was, imo.
Chris Christie(Governor Of New Jersey) - He is the clear frontrunner to me. I think he is not only far and away the best candidate the GOP could nominate in 2016, but that he would also be the best Republican nominee, period, since probably Reagan or at least George H.W. Bush(in 1988). He's got the gravitas and charisma, the popularity, and I think he has credibility with both the moderate conservatives(that still exist in droves even if they're near-extinct among elected officials) and the tea party(how sad is it that the tea party has to be accounted for now?). Simply put, he can win. Even against Hillary, he can win. If anyone's concerned about his weight, well, I wouldn't be surprised if he sheds some of it if he decides to run. Like Huckabee did in 2008. Anyway, if he runs, it's gotta be him for the GOP.
Jeb Bush(Former Governor Of Florida) - He's the other 'heavyweight', if you want to call him that, that's being talked about right now. My basic opinion is that GWB is just too heavy a weight for Jeb to carry around his neck. I've seen Jeb speak twice recently, once at the GOP convention and once at some rally that MSNBC showed some of, and both times he spent part of his speech defending his brother. If that's going to be staple of every campaign rally, he can forget it. That won't fly. And even if he never mentions GWB, everyone will still know he's the brother of one of the least liked(by both parties currently) presidents ever, and that he had a hand in the Florida 2000 debacle when he was governor there. I just think he can't win with GWB around his neck.
Paul Ryan(2012 United States Vice Presidential Candidate, United States Congressman from the state of Wisconsin) - I don't understand people saying he's a frontrunner for 2016. John Boehner said Ryan is a policy wonk and I think that's an apt description. I don't think Ryan has the gravitas to win a presidential campaign. He just strikes me as a lightweight in that regard. GOP is absolutely nuts imo if they nominate Ryan over Christie.
Mitch Daniels(Governor Of Indiana) - A lot of people wanted him to run in 2012 and were disappointed when he didn't. I've only actually heard him speak once, when he delivered the response to the SOTU. He didn't seem crazy like some of the other 2012 candidates, but he did seem to be pushing the tea party line of spending cuts, spending cuts, spending cuts. I think the biggest problem with him though might be the same thing a lot of people felt about Al Gore(wrongly, imo): that he's just boring to listen to. No charisma. I can't see him getting nominated.
Bobby Jindal(Governor Of Louisiana) - I honestly thought he was done in national politics after his SOTU response debacle, but his recent comments about the GOP are encouraging and also indicate that he might well be in for 2016. If he keeps talking like that though, I don't know if the tea party will accept it.
Rick Santorum(Former United States Senator from the state of Pennsylvania) - His number one issue is social conservatism. At this point, I don't think any candidate can win when he spends so much time talking about abortion and gay marriage. The GOP needs to back off the conservative social agenda if they want to win. I think more and more people in the party are realizing that. I don't think Santorum will do as well in 2016 if he runs as he did in 2012.
Mike Huckabee(Former Governor Of Arkansas) - I guess he's leading a GOP poll in Iowa. I don't really think it means anything, though. I think he'll have the same problems as Santorum as a social conservative. He certainly can't win a general election.
Rand Paul(United States Congressman from the state of Kentucky) - Some people are saying he will run in 2016 in order to carry the Libertarian torch on a big stage like his father has. Obviously he won't win.
Discuss.
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