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Old 01-08-2009, 06:13 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by HBK-79 View Post
Sorry. I was referring to the time before Bush's major decline in popularity. I mean- What compelled people to vote for Bush in 2000 and 2004?


fear. homophobia. Kerry was a bad candidate. various Democrat failures. Bush's North Korean-like campaign.

but mostly fear.
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Old 01-10-2009, 01:11 AM   #197
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I am a proud Republican,and I know you guys are going, "Oh fuck,stupid is here.."
But Bush did kinda suck,he didn`t do anything worth getting noted for IMO,the only reason he was elected was cause of his dad. I wish he had been like Reagan,but he wasn`t,he gave republicans a bad name. Rep`s,we don`t have to like everyone that is or was a Republican candidate
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Old 01-10-2009, 12:26 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
his approval rating hasn't been above 50% since the 2004 election
Thats incorrect, its been above 50% multiple times since the 2004 election including on the days February 4-6, 2005 when it was 57%.



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and it hasn't been above 40% since Hurrican Katrina
Wrong again. It was 44% September 15-17, 2006 over a year after Hurrican Katrina.

Presidential Job Approval in Depth

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and he's remain consistently lower than any other president in history.
This is wildly inaccurate. Take a look at the following:


Gallup Approval Averages for Presidents During Entire Presidency 1945-Present

Kennedy 70.1%
Eisenhower 65.0%
G.H.W. Bush 60.1%
Clinton 55.1%
Johnson 55.1%
Reagan 52.8%
G.W. Bush 49.4%
Nixon 49.1%
Ford 47.2%
Carter 45.5%
Truman 45.4%




Gallup Approval Averages For Presidents During First Term, 1945-present

Johnson 74.2%
Kennedy 70.1%
Eisenhower 69.6%
G.W. Bush 62.2%
G.H.W. Bush 60.9%
Nixon 55.8%
Truman 55.6%
Reagan 50.3%
Clinton 49.6%
Ford 47.2%
Carter 45.5%



Gallup Approval Averages For Presidents During Second Term, 1945-present

Clinton 60.6%
Eisenhower 60.5%
Reagan 55.3%
Johnson 50.3%
G.W. Bush 36.5%
Truman 36.5%
Nixon 34.4%



Bush's overall average approval rating during his entire Presidency ranks roughly in the middle when compared with other Presidents. Only 3 Presidents have a higher average approval rating in their first term than Bush. If you only count Presidents who served out an entire first term, only 1, Eisenhower has a higher average approval rating in the first term than Bush. In the second term, Bush's average approval rating went down, but its still higher than Nixon, and tied with Truman who is considered one of the greatest Presidents of all time by historians.

Despite Recent Lows, Bush Approval Average Is Midrange
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Old 01-10-2009, 06:33 PM   #199
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Thats incorrect, its been above 50% multiple times since the 2004 election including on the days February 4-6, 2005 when it was 57%.

Wrong again. It was 44% September 15-17, 2006 over a year after Hurrican Katrina.
Wow. 6 whole days.
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Old 01-10-2009, 06:39 PM   #200
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Not to mention that you can't take a statement about ratings being "consistently lower," and refute them by showing average ratings over time. Apples and oranges.
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Old 01-10-2009, 11:08 PM   #201
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the big difference between the two approval ratings was term one, was sept 11th and people were all revengeful and it clouded their judgement on things like the war in iraq and afghanistan. Term two people went 'ooops shit, we've elected a dickhead again' and realised Bush and the whole adminstration is pretty much a liability.

GWB legacy is basically a fucked up war, acceptance and approval of torture of innocent people, the rape of another race, the death of thousands of Americans through things like wars/hurricane Katrina/shit medical system making most of the world hate the US more, running the country into the ground, letting psychological unsound people dictate laws and legislation and the death of HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of other nationalities in your bid for "FREEDOM"

i fucking hate him and his administration. What a pathetic human being he is.
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:38 AM   #202
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Wow. 6 whole days.
The polling is done over 3 day periods. I just picked one to show that each statement that Irvine made was factually incorrect. I can list all the others if you like.
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:39 AM   #203
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I can list all the others if you like.
I'm sure you can.
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:47 AM   #204
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Not to mention that you can't take a statement about ratings being "consistently lower," and refute them by showing average ratings over time. Apples and oranges.
Irvine said the following:

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and he's remain consistently lower than any other president in history.
What evidence do you have that Bush's approval ratings have been consistently lower than ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN HISTORY?

I'd say the above statistics easily refutes the statement that Bush's approval rating has been been consistently lower than any other president in history.
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Old 01-11-2009, 01:15 AM   #205
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the big difference between the two approval ratings was term one, was sept 11th and people were all revengeful and it clouded their judgement on things like the war in iraq and afghanistan. Term two people went 'ooops shit, we've elected a dickhead again' and realised Bush and the whole adminstration is pretty much a liability.
Most Presidents see their poll numbers drop in their second term. Most people had all the information they needed in the fall of 2004 in order to determine whether they wanted to have another full term of Bush or not and the people chose Bush. That was the last chance the Democrats had to beat Bush and they lost. The opinion polls are certainly indicators, but they are not as meaningful or descriptive of how the country feels as a national presidentional election. When it comes to those, Bush is undefeated.

Harry Truman also had a rough second term, but is now regarded as one of the greatest Presidents in US history.

Bush successfully removed two major threats to the United States and the world by removing the Taliban from power in Afghanistan and Saddam's regime from power in Iraq. In the future, few people will be wishing or trying to make the claim that the world and the middle east would be safer and more stable if Saddam's regime had been left in power in Iraq or if the Taliban had been left in power in Afghanistan. These actions were necessary especially when you consider the consequences in terms of human lives and the health of the global economy if these regimes had been allowed to stay in power.
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Old 01-11-2009, 04:57 AM   #206
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Originally Posted by Strongbow View Post
Irvine said the following:



What evidence do you have that Bush's approval ratings have been consistently lower than ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN HISTORY?

I'd say the above statistics easily refutes the statement that Bush's approval rating has been been consistently lower than any other president in history.
It's very basic math. The word "consistently" implies ratings over time. By averaging things together, you're not only including his low trends, but his high ones also, and we all know that a few very high trends, as he had in the days post-9/11, can skew the overall numbers so that averages don't reflect the lows so much, and they turn out not looking as bad as they really are.

Irvine didn't prove it with his statement, but you didn't disprove it, either.
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Old 01-11-2009, 07:43 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by VintagePunk View Post
It's very basic math. The word "consistently" implies ratings over time. By averaging things together, you're not only including his low trends, but his high ones also, and we all know that a few very high trends, as he had in the days post-9/11, can skew the overall numbers so that averages don't reflect the lows so much, and they turn out not looking as bad as they really are.

Irvine didn't prove it with his statement, but you didn't disprove it, either.
Well, the averages above come from "ratings over time". Both high, low, and mid-range numbers impact "ratings over time". If Bush had been consistently lower than ANY other President in history, it would show up in the averages. Bush's lowest approval rating ever was 25%, not as low as Nixons at 24% or Trumans at 22%.

The links to the gallup website have all of Bush's approval numbers for the entire 8 year period. Gallup put the averages together to show that when looking at ratings over time, Bush was not at the bottom but in the middle when compared to other Presidents.
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Old 01-12-2009, 05:06 AM   #208
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Well, the averages above come from "ratings over time". Both high, low, and mid-range numbers impact "ratings over time". If Bush had been consistently lower than ANY other President in history, it would show up in the averages. Bush's lowest approval rating ever was 25%, not as low as Nixons at 24% or Trumans at 22%.

The links to the gallup website have all of Bush's approval numbers for the entire 8 year period. Gallup put the averages together to show that when looking at ratings over time, Bush was not at the bottom but in the middle when compared to other Presidents.
Wow. Do you not get basic statistics? It's really quite simple. For example, take temperatures over two weeks. Say week one looks like this:

97 - 95 - 62 - 64 - 61 - 58 - 60 = 497/7 - Avg = 71

And week two looks like this:

67 - 70 - 68 - 70 - 72 - 71 - 65 = 483/7 - Avg = 69

So, even though week one's total and average is higher, it was driven up by the first two days, but it still has the consistently longest stretch of low numbers, and as such, looking solely at the averages is deceptive.

I'm sure parsing Bush's numbers in this manner would be interesting, but honestly, I don't care enough to take the time to do it. I already objectively know that he is, if not the worst, than one of the worst presidents in US history. I think at this point, you, AchtungBono, and maybe three other people in the entire world are clinging to the delusion that he isn't.
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Old 01-12-2009, 08:15 AM   #209
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There's no point. Sting loves his fuzzy math...
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Old 01-12-2009, 11:37 AM   #210
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it's funny how people want to debate the fact that 24% is really not as bad as 22%, while Abu Ghraib isn't even acknowledged. but, besides the fact that the smokescreen belies an admission of being 100% wrong on absolutely everything, there's this article:

Quote:
The Enigma in Chief
We still don't know how or why Bush made the key decisions of his administration.
By Jacob Weisberg
Posted Saturday, Jan. 10, 2009, at 7:08 AM ET

As George W. Bush once noted, "You never know what your history is going to be like until long after you're gone." What I think he was trying to say is that, over time, historians may evolve toward a more positive view of his presidency than the one held by most of his contemporaries.

At the moment, this seems a vain hope. Bush's three most obvious legacies are his decision to invade Iraq, his framing of a global war on terror after Sept. 11, and the massive financial crisis. Each of these constitutes a separate epic in presidential misjudgment and mismanagement. It remains a brainteaser to come up with ways, however minor, in which Bush changed government, politics, or the world for the better. Among presidential historians, it is hardly an eccentric view that 43 ranks as America's worst president ever. On the other hand, he has nowhere to go but up.

In a different sense, however, Bush's comment has some validity to it. We do not know how people will one day view this presidency because we, Bush's contemporaries, don't yet understand it ourselves. The Bush administration has had startling success in one area—namely keeping its inner workings secret. Intensely loyal, contemptuous of the press, and overwhelmingly hostile to any form of public disclosure, the Bushies did a remarkable job at keeping their doings hidden for eight years.

Probably the biggest question Bush leaves behind is about the most consequential choice of his presidency: his decision to invade Iraq. When did the president make up his mind to go to war against Saddam Hussein? What were his real reasons? What roles did various figures around him—Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Condoleezza Rice—play in the actual decision? Was the selling of the war on the basis of WMD evidence a matter of conscious deception or of self-deception on their part?

Bob Woodward, Ron Suskind, and I recently debated in Slate the issue of how much we really know about Bush's biggest decision. Woodward, the author of four inside accounts of the Bush administration, believes that we do know the most important facts. He argues that Bush decided to invade Iraq in January 2003, that the reason was 9/11, and that Bush himself was the real decision-maker. Suskind and I argued that we don't know really how, when, or why the decision was made—though we suspect it was much earlier. By the summer of 2002, administration officials and foreign diplomats were hearing that Bush's course was already set.

The disputed dates and details go to the most interesting larger issues about what went wrong during the Bush years. Did Bush's own innocence and incompetence drive his missteps? Or was it the people around him, most importantly his vice president, who manipulated him into his major bad choices? On so many issues—the framing of the war on terrorism, the use of torture, the expansion of executive power—it was Cheney's views that prevailed. Yet at some point, perhaps around the 2006 election, Bush seems to have lost confidence in his vice president and stopped taking his advice.

To reckon with the Bush years, we need to understand what went on between these two men behind closed doors. Yet despite some superb spadework by journalist Barton Gellman and others, we know very little about Cheney's true role. We have seen few of the pertinent documents and heard little relevant testimony. Congressional investigations and litigation have shed only the faintest light on Cheney's role in Bush's biggest blunders.

The same is generally true of Bush's most important political relationship, with Karl Rove, and his most important personal one, with his father. Only with greater insight into these connections are we likely to be able to answer some of the other pressing historical questions. To what extent was Bush himself really the driver of his central decisions? How engaged or disengaged was he? Why, after governing as a successful moderate in Texas, did he adopt such an ideological and polarizing style as president? Why did he politicize the fight against terrorism? Why did he choose to permit the torture of American detainees? Why did he wait so long to revise a failing strategy in Iraq?

It seems unlikely that the memoirs in the works from Rove and Rumsfeld will challenge Bush's repeated assertions that he was not only in charge but in control. As for the president himself, we're unlikely to get much: Bush has a poor memory and is too unreflective to have kept the kind of diary that would elucidate matters. In time, however, other accounts are sure to emerge. Congressional investigations will shed new light. Declassified documents and e-mails may paint a clearer picture.

Once the country is rid of Bush, perhaps we can start developing a more nuanced understanding of how his presidency went astray. His was no ordinary failure, and he leaves not just an unholy mess but also some genuine mysteries.
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