Well, exactly how would you go about it?
I think the ball was dropped one, two, three weeks ago. This wasn’t some surprise ‘attack’ or anything. They’ve known about this for months, and the trading and building up of threats from both sides was headline news (here in London anyway) for at least a week leading up to it.
There are two things, in my view: One is the rights and wrongs of the blockade/’siege’, and the rights and wrongs of the Israeli action/protester reaction. The other is the larger strategic judgement. Not whether what Israel did was right or wrong in a moral, or international law sense, but whether it was the
smart thing to do, and how those decisions flow well beyond Israel and Gaza.
Forget the rights and wrongs of either blockade/siege of Gaza, or action/reaction to the flotilla for a moment – and I definitely sit in the ‘grey’ with a belief that both sides, in both cases, morally and legally, sit both in the right and wrong in different areas in the detail – and think about the strategy, the larger picture, and I can’t understand what the thinking was, or how the ball was dropped so spectacularly by everyone involved. Not just Israel, but definitely Turkey and
absolutely the US as well.
As I said, this wasn’t a surprise. And even a monkey would have known that this was about the story of trying to get the aid through, not about actually getting the aid through. Absolutely, totally about imagery. The two images the flotilla wanted were the same two Israel absolutely did not (or should not) have wanted: Either the boats landing as saviours and heroes in port at Gaza, thousands cheering them as thy unload their aid, desperate in the face of Israeli enforced hardships, or, an over the top, heavy handed response from Israel that makes them look to be nothing more than unreasonable, violent arseholes.
So why on earth did Israel play right into their hands? There’s absolutely no doubt that Israel ‘lost’ this confrontation. Spectacularly. They not only played right into the hands of the flotilla, giving them the image and story they absolutely wanted, but handed a win to Hamas, and Tehran can no doubt not believe their luck.
The AKP govt in Turkey have been making political hay from Israeli actions in Gaza for some time, it should have easily been seen that an escalation of this would occur should this action go wrong. Egypt lose because they are forced to open their border with Gaza. The US is put in an incredibly difficult position because their two most important allies in the region are at each others throats. It similarly impacts the EU and larger NATO in a far lesser but still highly difficult way.
And Israel surely must have seen all of this coming. The US should have. Everyone should have. Anyone reading a newspaper could see it coming. The warning shots and escalation from all sides have been fired backwards and forwards for at least the last week, no doubt far longer away from the headlines. The only assumption to make really is that Israel really just don’t care anymore. In which case, mixed with the Turkish govt quite liking the domestic strength a new hard line on Israel gives them, there was probably no chance that on their own steam, Israel, Turkey and Egypt could have worked something out between themselves. Therefore… a decent amount of blame has to lie with the US. At least in terms of dropping the ball. The US has the leverage or flat out power over all the players. If they correctly judged that this Israeli government is only going to react in one way, and that in response Turkey would only break further away, then they really should have stepped in and brokered or forced a deal.
Israel would have needed to compromise, while still being able to hold firm on the basic idea and legitimacy of the blockade and siege. The flotilla would have to be put in a position where they get to be seen to make the point, force a suitable outcome, and deliver their aid. Turkey would have needed to be seen to have been the political force behind the compromise on behalf of the flotilla. Basically, the US applies heavy pressure on all fronts some time ago, the flotilla arrives with negotiations already long under way (privately), so some basic understanding is already in place before the two sides physically meet. Israel gets to stop them in a more peaceful way, but still so their image of a forceful blockade is preserved. The flotilla gets to make a bit of public noise at Israel’s expense, as they require. Israel gets to defend the reasons behind the blockade (no weapons into Gaza = no unchecked cargo into Gaza, no excuses) but with what is seen as Turkish pressure on behalf of the flotilla, makes a large public compromise on the severity of what goods are not allowed in. Flotilla gets a win - seen to pressure a result, Turkey get a win - seen to broker it. Again, from heavily applied US pressure, the flotilla moves to a port in Egypt, in what looks like an offer from Egypt. Israel gets a win, the blockade holds and it’s basic premise is defended and in a way legitimised. Flotilla gets a win, they are not going to an Israeli port. The flotilla are promised a totally transparent inspection of goods, with all legitimate aid delivered immediately via the Egyptian border, perhaps even under escort of representatives from the flotilla. Flotilla gets a win – aid delivered, perhaps personally. Egypt gets a win – not politically forced to totally open border as they now have been. Israel gets another win - system of cargo inspections holds, and is strengthened and legitimised via being conducted elsewhere.
That still sounds like Israel comes out worst, and they do in a way, but compared to what they are facing now (Israel lose in every way, US lose in every way, Egypt lose to a degree, everyone else wins massively) it would have been a far, far, far better outcome. And that is in no way including anything to do with whether or not the Gaza blockade and siege is good/bad, right/wrong, legal/illegal etc. That is simply looking at it in terms of smart strategy for all players involved. And no matter which way you side in terms of the rights and wrongs of it all, you can not claim this as anything but a massive strategic loss for Israel. They lose the confrontation (it was about image), they handed a massive victory to everyone after one, and they have only emboldened and enlarged the already dominant international view that their entire blockade and siege is both wrong and illegal, losing most, if not all (at least for the time being) ground for compromise and defense of it's basic premise. But would Israel have ever gone for something like that? Likely, not a chance, and that's where the real issue is. Those sort of arrangements, deals, compromise are how the rest of the world works, and are seen as being where Israel is these days most at fault. Zero compromise, massive over-reactions, middle finger raised at
everyone else.
And now, due to either their failure to see this coming, or failure to act in advance, the US have to figure out what to do with two unbelievably important, formally close allies now perhaps forever apart.
Oh, Sarah, Sarah, dear, if only you would take your own advice... 
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