Québec Election September 4th 2012

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

I know it's not as glamorous as the U.S election,but here in Canada,a Québec has always but canadians biting our nails in the hope that the PQ don't win.And with the close race that we have right now,that sad possibility is plausible.

First polls from last Friday from CROP and Léger Marketing

CROP : PLQ=29%
PQ = 32%
CAQ=21%

Léger Marketing: PLQ=31%
PQ = 32%
CAQ=27%


With 22 days before election day,this is way too close to call,but i still maintain my prediction of a liberal minority goverment.Charest is the best of the 3 as a debater and campaigner.With 4 debates coming up next week,this is where he's going take some momentum.The 2 factors that is going to tell who will win is the turn out on election day and the francophone vote.Last one in 2008 it was a 57%.If the population is tired of the this 9 years+ of the Liberal,we should see a % over 70%,which would be bad news for Charest.But below that,he will win,a minority goverment victory,but a win anyhow.As for the francophone votes,poll shows it's around 20% which is not good,they need to be at least 25%.A strong CAQ will devide the french vote between CAQ and PQ which in that scenario would be good for the liberals.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

I'm not overly well-versed in Canadian politics, I must admit, but thanks for posting this here, it's certainly worthy of discussion.

Those numbers do look pretty close. What are the big things being discussed in that election this year?

 

[digitize]

I'm not overly familiar with Québec politics either. Nowadays, how major of an issue is separation for PQ and BQ (is that an acronym that is actually used)? If PQ were to establish a government, would separation be a real possibility? Is a PLQ/CAQ anti-separatist coalition possible? Would either other party (PLQ, presumably?) coalition with PQ? If that happened, would separation be possible? In Canada, it's generally possible to run a minority government without a junior coalition partner, right?

Sorry for the barrage of questions

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

Separation is around 35-40% in the polls.So even if the PQ win, Pauline Marois (Leader of the party) won't hold a referemdum...or to the very least it would be highly doubtfull.And if the PQ win as a minority goverment,well that solve the problem and there won't be one for sure.But even with no referendum,a separatist goverment is bad for the economy and bring instability.

The student strike was the big issue here this year and one of the prime reason that Jean Charest (leader of the liberal party)called an election now.The bill 78 that was voted in the spring causes some turbulences for a few weeks.Basically the bill restraint the capacity of the students for demonstration in the streets but also to give the opportunaty to the students that weren't on strike to have access to their universities because many of the on-strike students were blocking the entrance of many of them (around 33%,of the universities/CEGEP of the province are on strike)The population is ,for the the most part, in favor of that bill which is why Charest felt comfortable to call an election now.But some votes in the on-strike universities have gone on this week and the results are to end the strike in most of those universities,so looks like the bill 78 worked.

The second issue is the appearance of corruptions in the construction sector.Which made the goverment putting together a commision on that issue.That commision begins it's work on september 17th and since it has the possibility to expose this liberal goverment for some scandals that could come out,Charest went to an election before the start of that commission.But past PQ goverments could be expose as well ,so in some ways both parties are better off to go with an election now.Only the CAQ party (Coalition Avenir Québec) would be winners if scandals were to come out of that commission,since they are a new party and never have form a goverment in the past.

Election here works like this. The province is divided in 125 ridings(districts).So the party that win the most, win the election and form the goverment.The magic number to be a majority goverment is 63.Below that number it's a minority gov.It only happen twice in the history of Québec that we end up with a minority gov.Most recent one in 2007.Minority gov. makes up for short mandats since the opposition parties can reverse the goverment on any votes that goes on in the parlement.Canada has a fixed date for elections now except in two provinces,Alberta and Québec.At federal level,the date is the 3rd Monday of October every 4 years,while in the 8 provinces that has fixe dates, it varies but it's a 4 year term.In Alberta and Québec the term is a max of 5 years.In Québec,PQ and CAQ are in favor for fix dates but not the Liberals.

 

[digitize]

Thanks for the clarification. That was a very insightful post.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

You're welcome

 

[BoMac]

It's too close to call, but I predict a Liberal minority.

 

[Badyouken]

Too close to call indeed. Quebecers are not presented with a very inspiring group of leaders, to say the least.

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Hm, that sounds like it could apply to many areas of the world nowadays, doesn't it? How sad.

Meant to reply to this and say thanks for the further clarification as well. The student issue sounds interesting-I can't say I disagree with that bill. Students certainly have the right to protest things they disagree with, no problem with that. But yeah, it's not fair to block other people from getting around if they aren't part of the protest and whatnot. Doing stuff like that doesn't exactly help endear people to your cause.

I am curious about what sort of corruption in the construction sector you refer to. Political scandal, ah, you gotta love it, huh?

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

For those who understand french a little,here's a couple segments of the first debate last Sunday Charest is on the far right next to Marois on his right.CAQ leader is on the far left.And the woman next to Marois IS Francoise David Co-leader of Québec Solidaire(it's not a important party,but since they have a elected member in the parlement,they had the right to be part of the debate)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=R6Rr6GOzlRw

http://youtube.com/watch?v=SzgwRAC03X0

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

With one week to go before election day,the latest polls shows that Liberals are done (only 18-19% of the francophone vote).I really thought that Charest would overcome the 3 mandats,9 years and 4 months in power obstacle.But looks like the population have enough of him.So it's a battle between PQ and CAQ.PQ still ahead by 5 points over CAQ with 1 week to go.

Poll Léger Marketing : PQ 33%-CAQ 28%- PLQ 27%


Poll CROP/La Presse: PQ 33%-CAQ 28%- PLQ 26%

With numbers like these,we are heading with a minority gov. PQ or CAQ.

 

[BoMac]

That may be true, but a week is an eternity in politics.

In April, five different polls during the final days of the Alberta campaign had the Wildrose Alliance leading the Progressive Conservatives, with some indicating their support was pushing them into majority territory.

There were some major gaffes by Wildrose candidates during the final week, and strategic voting by moderates and independents swung the balance of support the Conservatives' way, and they ended up winning 61 of 87 seats.

A lot can happen between now and Sept. 4, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

I hope you're right.But with 19% of the francophone vote, that is huge gap to narrow in just 1 week.Outside of the island of Montreal,Liberals are cooked it seem.Charest doesn't have a bad campaign.no faux pas.Didn't do too bad during the debates either.But it seems that the population wants a change after 3 mandats.It just feel like if Marois does a gaffe or 2 on this final week,i think Legault will gain those votes instead of Charest,because that is the problem for the Liberals,this being a 3 party race.I thought that for the last Alberta election it was a 2 party race.But maybe i'm wrong since i didn't follow that election as closely as the one here.

Will many of the 19% francophone liberals just go with the CAQ to avoid having the PQ in power? lets hope so for the sake and well being of this province,becauce my province need another constitution drama cloud just like i need a hole in my head.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

4 days before election day and last poll published by CROP/La Presse before the election

PQ 32%
CAQ 28%
PLQ 26%
QS 9%
ON 2%

I'm puting the last 2 parties there as well (Québec Solidaire and Option National) because ,with 11% together,thery are a big reason why if the PQ win ,it will be a minority gov since both are separatist parties as well.Liberals still at 19% on the francophone side.

With a margin of error of 3%,CAQ can still pass by the PQ.

Tomorrow,last poll to be publish by Léger Marketing.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

Only 24 hours before election day and last poll from Léger Marketing published yesterday.....and no change.

PQ 33% CAQ 28% PLQ 27%

last week anticipation vote was 16,6%,a new high.So the turn out for the election shouls higher than the last one which was at 57,4%.

Hopefully the 3% margin of error in the polls will be on the side of the CAQ.

 

[BoMac]

There absolutely will be some strategic voting going on in some, if not many ridings, which will cause vote splitting and a CAQ or PLQ candidate to squeak through.

It embodies, in my opinion, everything that is wrong with the first-past-the-post system.

In any event, it should be interesting tonight.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

Well this is it,it's election day.It's a cloudy morning here in Montreal.Hopefully not an indication of the outcome of tonight.I'll go vote at lunch time.In my riding,the liberals will be fine.So will the west portion of the island and the Gatineau region.But elsewhere,it will be a fight between the PQ and CAQ.i'm concern that the spliting will be among the federalist vote rather than the separatists voters.

I agree with BoMac about our voting system.When a party could win an election with only 33% of the voters,there's something wrong.Even worse,a party can win an election even if they have fewer votes than the top party.3 time in Québec that happen 1944,1966 and 1998.But changing it is a complicated matter when it comes to get the approval of the population.B.C. and Ontario rejected it in a referendum of changing the system in there respective province even though most people in the country are complaining about the current one.

 

[deep]

a win and a loss

"The Anglophones are waking up,"

Fatal shooting at Pauline Marois Quebec victory speech | World news | guardian.co.uk

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

Oh, fantastic, another story like this . Good god.

Awful news.

 

[LUNEDEMINUIT]

An eventfull evening to say the lease.

A PQ minority gov and a shooter trying to shoot the new elected premiere.Even if i didn't vote for her,it was frightning and a sad event.1 innocent person killed and another one injured that basically avoid the shooting of Pauline Marois if they werent at the back of the metropolis when the mad f**k entered. His name is Richard Henry Bain,btw.

Looks like Charest will annonce that he's leaving the Liberal later this afternoon.Got beat in his own riding,so i guess it did accelerated his reflextion.But they avoid a disaster with 50 ridings and the official oppposition spot with a minority gov infront of them,so Charest can leave with his head up in some ways.

The CAQ didn't do as well as the observers expected,only 19 ridings.I think at the end of the day their program had too much changes in the eyes of the population.Québec is not a right-center society,but more a left-center one.Legault will have to ajust his program for the next election,which could come in the next year an a half.

Hopefully the rest of the country will take a valium and relax,since no referendum his on the horizon.Some of the editorials outside of Québec were ridiculous last week,with Conrad Black leading the way in the usual Québec bashing.