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Old 11-03-2009, 01:33 PM   #1
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Preemptive post: Virginia's governor election is NOT a reflection of Obama

So, it's pretty much inevitable that the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell, is going to win today over the Dem candidate, Creigh Deeds. This victory will be hailed loudly by the right as an indicator that Americans are unhappy with Obama's policies.

As a resident of Virginia (at least for the next 2 weeks until we make the sad move to Maryland), let me just say this: ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Why? Because Creigh Deeds has run the shittiest campaign in history. While McDonnell took the route of advertising primarily on his own character and (supposed) record, Creigh Deeds relied almost entirely on trashing McDonnell's character based on anti-feminine beliefs McDonnell publicized decades ago. Yes, McDonnell's statements were fairly deplorable....but they weren't enough to run a campaign on. Add to that the fact that McDonnell carries himself like a staunch (if not annoying) conservative leader that could be governor, while Deeds seems much more like an insurance salesman.

I'm a democrat & would much like to see a dem win the race, but I have not been impressed by the candidate that got through the primaries. The poll numbers here in VA reflect others' similar feelings......NOT how we feel about Obama.

Just FYI.
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Old 11-03-2009, 01:39 PM   #2
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Why yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.
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Old 11-03-2009, 01:44 PM   #3
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I'm not so sure. I think blaming it on a sucky candidate can only take you so far, even though that's what the White House is already doing to downplay this sure loss. McDonnell has run a flawless campaign, and he's expected to win by possibly as much as 15. Obama won the state by over 6. That's quite a turnaround. It'll be interesting to see how the independents vote, and, once again, the low turnout of minorities. A sweep today would NOT be good for the Democratic Party.
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Old 11-03-2009, 01:50 PM   #4
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Deeds was a sucky candidate, and McDonnell won by emphasizing liberal issues -- education, transportation -- and playing up the fact that he's from NoVA. this is the new Vriginia, which is light years beyond the former capital of the Confederacy it was up until the late 1990's. the explosion of educated workers into the Dulles tech corridor has done much to turn the state blue, that combined with the universally beloved Mark Warner and the at least warmly-thought-of Tim Kane. McDonnell ran as far away as he could from his christofascist background and tried to play himself as a man of the 21st century.

the most interesting race today, however, is in NY-23.

i am also cautiously pessimistic about Maine. there seems to be a "bradley effect" when it comes to marriage equality, but we'll see what happens.
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Old 11-03-2009, 01:59 PM   #5
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Turnaround or not, you've basically made my point:

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McDonnell has run a flawless campaign
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:26 PM   #6
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I say McDonnell wins big- double digits, Hoffman in NY wins a close one, and I think Corzine squeaks by in NJ.
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Old 11-03-2009, 02:45 PM   #7
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Hoffman in NY wins a close one

this is exactly what the Democrats are hoping for.

it should be very interesting.
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Old 11-03-2009, 03:04 PM   #8
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this is exactly what the Democrats are hoping for.
Why do you say that?
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Old 11-03-2009, 03:17 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2861U2 View Post
Why do you say that?


it will allow them to reinforce their belief that the GOP is now about ideological purity, that it's led by Rush, Beck, and Palin, and there's no room for moderation within the GOP. you can't be a pro-choice Republican, you can't be a pro-marriage equality Republican, etc.

it fits into the WH strategy that's been attempting to conflate the GOP with talk radio, Fox News, etc., and make the party that much more unappealing to moderates and independents who might, for example, be leery of Obama's deficits but even more leery of right-wing orthodoxy.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:31 PM   #10
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I never thought governor was much of a referendum on the president one way or the other. State's a different animal than national.

The elections for Congress and Senate will tell you a little more next year. If it holds to pattern, the Dems are going to lose some seats which won't tell you much of anything.
If it goes against pattern and the Democrats keep their margin or if they lose a lot of seats, then you have a referendum. But if I were the Dems, I'd be getting a lot of legislation passed pronto.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:59 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2861U2 View Post
I say McDonnell wins big- double digits, Hoffman in NY wins a close one, and I think Corzine squeaks by in NJ.
if this happens
it is not unreasonable to give some credit to Obama's drop in popularity




http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33597807...more_politics/
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:12 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
it will allow them to reinforce their belief that the GOP is now about ideological purity, that it's led by Rush, Beck, and Palin, and there's no room for moderation within the GOP. you can't be a pro-choice Republican, you can't be a pro-marriage equality Republican, etc.

it fits into the WH strategy that's been attempting to conflate the GOP with talk radio, Fox News, etc., and make the party that much more unappealing to moderates and independents who might, for example, be leery of Obama's deficits but even more leery of right-wing orthodoxy.
The handful of Republicans (11 local folks) who anointed Scozzafava simply misjudged the electorate.
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:13 PM   #13
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So, it's pretty much inevitable that the Republican candidate for governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell, is going to win today over the Dem candidate, Creigh Deeds. This victory will be hailed loudly by the right as an indicator that Americans are unhappy with Obama's policies.

As a resident of Virginia (at least for the next 2 weeks until we make the sad move to Maryland), let me just say this: ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Why? Because Creigh Deeds has run the shittiest campaign in history. While McDonnell took the route of advertising primarily on his own character and (supposed) record, Creigh Deeds relied almost entirely on trashing McDonnell's character based on anti-feminine beliefs McDonnell publicized decades ago. Yes, McDonnell's statements were fairly deplorable....but they weren't enough to run a campaign on. Add to that the fact that McDonnell carries himself like a staunch (if not annoying) conservative leader that could be governor, while Deeds seems much more like an insurance salesman.

I'm a democrat & would much like to see a dem win the race, but I have not been impressed by the candidate that got through the primaries. The poll numbers here in VA reflect others' similar feelings......NOT how we feel about Obama.

Just FYI.
Whatever.
I'm mad none of y'all reminded me to get an absentee ballot on time. I hope VA is governed by an evil arachnid overlord. Next time tell me!! I've no idea what goes on in VA unless it starts with a College and ends with a Football.
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:31 PM   #14
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Quote:
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Deeds was a sucky candidate, and McDonnell won by emphasizing liberal issues -- education, transportation
Those are basic "state" issues, not liberal issues.
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:53 PM   #15
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Those are basic "state" issues, not liberal issues.


on a national level, they are certainly liberal issues.

and particularly in Vriginia, where the "values" nonsense might still have some resonance, it's quite telling that the conservative candidate didn't puff up his "values" credentials and instead focused on real, tangible issues, instead of the "god, guns, and gays" of the past.

i'll take that as progress, no matter from which side.
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