Predictions for 2012

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financeguy

financeguy

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- Obama re-elected

- Gold reaches $1900 per ounce, silver $45

- Oil to $120 a barrel

- Futher civil unrest in Europe and America ("In Europe and America there's a growing feeling of hysteria" - Sting, circa 1985 :wink:)

- Assassination of a significant political or banking figure in Europe by far left elements is used as pretext for crackdown on protest movement and curtailment of remaining democratic rights
 
Predicitions for 2012...
- Sarkozy is defeated by François Hollande and PS returns to power in France, creating a rupture in the "Merkozy" directory;
- Greece's elections are a big mess, with huge defeats for thw two biggest parties, but the only way to get stability (a central-bloc-coalition between PASOK and ND) is followed. Contestation and social discontent grows even more. There was the imminent danger of a military coup d'État right back in October, but it was hold. Not for very long, I believe. A coup d'État happens in the second semester of 2012, starting a wave of dangerous rebellions in neighbour european countries.
- Portuguese government "falls" due to the dissolution of the coalition by the action of smallest party in the agreement: PP;
- Labourist Brazilian Government directed by Dilma Rouseff won't hold as well to the end of 2012 - last week, her 7th Minister was fired, once again, due to corruption;
- The Euro will not survive to the end of the second semester because there will be no money to save Italy very soon and Spain as well and the "disease" will affect (it has already affected, in fact) France, Belgium, Spain and some countries of the eastern Europe like Hungary and Romania. Countries decide to return to their old currencies after the colapse of the Euro and the world economy gets psychotic with mutual threats and punishments. The EU eventually desintegrates itself;
- Merkel's government won't hold either and falls by the end of 2012. SPD + The Greens form a governmental coalition, but it'll be already too late to mend what's broken and to save Europe.
- Exponential growth of the price of raw materials, food and, specially cereals and food.


- U2 will not release any album and the whole cycle before an album gets released with all the inherent clichés will happen.
 
Vlad n U 2 said:
We will all die.
Click to expand...

Yeah, don't we have a year to go?

I'm in agreement with Aygo's prediction. I see more unrest and dissatisfaction worldwide.

As for election 2012, whoever wins, riots will break out. The civil unrest in America will be closely linked to next year's election. And I think either side is capable of causing unrest because there are wackos on both ends of the political spectrum.
 
China will have a major slowdown, and given that it consumes 40%+ of the world's energy, oil, gas and coal prices will collapse. Oil will fall to $40 or below. Other commodities will also decrease significantly in price.

We will see a major central bank intervention in Europe, with the ECB ultimately taking the role of lender of last resort and printing hundreds of billions of Euros. It will have to get much worse in Europe for this to happen, but I think it will, because there doesn't seem to be a definitive solution to the deficit/debt issues.

If I'm right about one of these two predictions, I'll be really happy.
 
Achtung11 said:
China will have a major slowdown, and given that it consumes 40%+ of the world's energy, oil, gas and coal prices will collapse. Oil will fall to $40 or below. Other commodities will also decrease significantly in price.

We will see a major central bank intervention in Europe, with the ECB ultimately taking the role of lender of last resort and printing hundreds of billions of Euros. It will have to get much worse in Europe for this to happen, but I think it will, because there doesn't seem to be a definitive solution to the deficit/debt issues.

If I'm right about one of these two predictions, I'll be really happy.
Click to expand...

Even if the ECB starts to do what it should've done a while ago and done what it promised back in 2008 (when ordered the States to run into debt and save the bank), I don't know it'll work, it's too late to save some economies which are beyond damaged and that won't be able to grow and pay its debts on the next 10 years at least (like Portugal, Greece... but I fear these are not the only ones).
 
Obama will win re-election narrowly, while the Republicans hold the House and pick up about 6 in the Senate.

The Cubs will not win the World Series.
 
Here's three:

Bill Clinton and Herman Cain will partner in a new global initiative. Hillary and Gloria will not be involved.

Alan Grayson will lose any vestige of sanity.

Mormon will be the new gay.
 
I don't like where the ever increasing US and Israeli right wing stupidity is heading in regards to either Israel/Palestine or Iran. I predict a pretty huge cock up/disaster/grenade deliberately thrown into the US elections somewhere on this front.

Dreadsox said:
U2 will announce they are done.
Click to expand...

More than a decent chance of that, I think. Maybe not in 2012, but I'll be a little bit surprised if in 18 months, we're on the other side of a successful U2 recording period followed by a successful U2 album release. Sadly, I think there's a far better chance of them either having an 'Achtung' style lack of direction and division resulting in them calling it a day, or of them thinking they've struck lightning but actually releasing something quite crap and then calling it a day.
 
Mrs. Garrison said:
aha, latter days :sexywink:
Click to expand...

watch


:up:
 
Aygo said:
Even if the ECB starts to do what it should've done a while ago and done what it promised back in 2008 (when ordered the States to run into debt and save the bank), I don't know it'll work, it's too late to save some economies which are beyond damaged and that won't be able to grow and pay its debts on the next 10 years at least (like Portugal, Greece... but I fear these are not the only ones).
Click to expand...

I don't think it alone will solve everything immediately, but it will be of significant help. The Eurozone countries, for the most part, have lower debt/GDP and deficit/GDP ratios than the U.S., but the big difference is that they don't have the right to print euros, whereas the U.S. can, and has, printed dollars to stave off a depression. The ECB is the only institution that can play that role in Europe, and if done so, it will provide much needed liquidity to the countries.
 
Achtung11 said:
I don't think it alone will solve everything immediately, but it will be of significant help. The Eurozone countries, for the most part, have lower debt/GDP and deficit/GDP ratios than the U.S., but the big difference is that they don't have the right to print euros, whereas the U.S. can, and has, printed dollars to stave off a depression. The ECB is the only institution that can play that role in Europe, and if done so, it will provide much needed liquidity to the countries.
Click to expand...

Remember back in 2008 what the ECB and the President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Junker, said? They advised the countries to run into debt, so the state(s) could save, not only the bank, but the economy. And so all the Euro countries (and some non-Euro EU countries) did. Many countries doubled their debt because the ECB said «run into debt and don't be afraid to do it because ECB will save you later, acting like any other central bank: printing money». It's 2011 and the countries are still waiting for it. Why? Not only because the status of the ECB doesn't allow it to do, but because printing money would bring back to Germany the ghost of inflation Weimar's era.
 
3 predictions
1. Most likely to happen, Elvis Presley will come out of hiding, and announce his engagement to Princess Diana.
2. Slightly less likely to happen, David Bowie will release a new album.
3. Absolutely no chance of happening, but I'm going for it anyway, U2 will release a new album.
 
1. Europe survives, but the British feel ever more isolated and it's the beginning of the end of the Euro
2. Obama wins handily, unemployment still not below 8%
3. U2 releases an album in late November, arena tour to follow in March; it's a good album, but it's very much a U2 album; it's the beginning of the end
4. China slows down, the US feels better
5. Prop 8 is overturned in CA
6. Sarkozy is not reelected
7. summer is, again, one of the hottest on record
8. the Affordable Care Act becomes increasingly popular
9. Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte put on the greatest show in Olympic swimming history; when the waters settle, Phelps will have 6 golds, 1 silver, Lochte will have 3 golds, 3 silvers
10. Meryl Streep finally wins her 3rd Oscar
 
Aygo said:
Remember back in 2008 what the ECB and the President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Junker, said? They advised the countries to run into debt, so the state(s) could save, not only the bank, but the economy. And so all the Euro countries (and some non-Euro EU countries) did. Many countries doubled their debt because the ECB said «run into debt and don't be afraid to do it because ECB will save you later, acting like any other central bank: printing money». It's 2011 and the countries are still waiting for it. Why? Not only because the status of the ECB doesn't allow it to do, but because printing money would bring back to Germany the ghost of inflation Weimar's era.
Click to expand...

I agree completely. Germany is also the most well off, has the lowest bond yields, and is Europe's largest economy. It's not facing liquidity problems like Italy is, while it also has more power over the ECB than Italy does, being it's largest shareholder. Many reasons for it, and therefore the ECB, not to want to print money. But I think they may have no choice in the end, or else they're all going down. The countries are too inter-connected.

There was a good piece in the Financial Times today, by John Paulson, in which he suggested a way around printing, with the ECB guaranteeing all new debt, and that alone will restore confidence and therefore reduce yields. I think it's a good idea, but I have a feeling that they're not going to do anything nearly as drastic until things get much worse.

Europe needs a firewall to stabilise markets - FT.com
 
You guys really need to throw in some numbers to make this more interesting:

~

1. Obama re-elected by over 100 electoral votes

2. Affordable Care Act is upheld in Supreme Court by a 1-vote margin

3. Arizona's immigration law is struck down by the SC

4. Eurozone survives for the moment, but 2013 looks dire

~

Long shot bonus: Israel launches a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear program assets that does not lead to a full-scale conflict in the region
 
Achtung11 said:
I agree completely. Germany is also the most well off, has the lowest bond yields, and is Europe's largest economy. It's not facing liquidity problems like Italy is, while it also has more power over the ECB than Italy does, being it's largest shareholder. Many reasons for it, and therefore the ECB, not to want to print money. But I think they may have no choice in the end, or else they're all going down. The countries are too inter-connected.

There was a good piece in the Financial Times today, by John Paulson, in which he suggested a way around printing, with the ECB guaranteeing all new debt, and that alone will restore confidence and therefore reduce yields. I think it's a good idea, but I have a feeling that they're not going to do anything nearly as drastic until things get much worse.

Europe needs a firewall to stabilise markets - FT.com
Click to expand...

Exactly. And it's not only for the european countries...
China and Brazil have already "warned" us, europeans, to put and end to this joyfull game, and have the balls to do what's it's needed, because it'll end the worse way even for "them". China's growth speed is already slowing down. And Brazil's too. This is the worst that could happen now.
 
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