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Old 12-14-2011, 01:29 PM   #16
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Hey Dreadsox
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Old 12-14-2011, 01:39 PM   #17
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I don't like where the ever increasing US and Israeli right wing stupidity is heading in regards to either Israel/Palestine or Iran. I predict a pretty huge cock up/disaster/grenade deliberately thrown into the US elections somewhere on this front.

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U2 will announce they are done.
More than a decent chance of that, I think. Maybe not in 2012, but I'll be a little bit surprised if in 18 months, we're on the other side of a successful U2 recording period followed by a successful U2 album release. Sadly, I think there's a far better chance of them either having an 'Achtung' style lack of direction and division resulting in them calling it a day, or of them thinking they've struck lightning but actually releasing something quite crap and then calling it a day.
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Old 12-14-2011, 07:41 PM   #18
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Same shit, different year
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Old 12-14-2011, 08:24 PM   #19
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Here's three:

Mormon will be the new gay.
what about gay mormons?
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Old 12-14-2011, 08:27 PM   #20
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what about gay mormons?
Not till 2013.
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Old 12-14-2011, 08:30 PM   #21
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Not till 2013.
aha, latter days
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Old 12-14-2011, 09:55 PM   #22
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aha, latter days


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Old 12-14-2011, 11:54 PM   #23
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Even if the ECB starts to do what it should've done a while ago and done what it promised back in 2008 (when ordered the States to run into debt and save the bank), I don't know it'll work, it's too late to save some economies which are beyond damaged and that won't be able to grow and pay its debts on the next 10 years at least (like Portugal, Greece... but I fear these are not the only ones).
I don't think it alone will solve everything immediately, but it will be of significant help. The Eurozone countries, for the most part, have lower debt/GDP and deficit/GDP ratios than the U.S., but the big difference is that they don't have the right to print euros, whereas the U.S. can, and has, printed dollars to stave off a depression. The ECB is the only institution that can play that role in Europe, and if done so, it will provide much needed liquidity to the countries.
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Old 12-15-2011, 12:56 AM   #24
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I don't think it alone will solve everything immediately, but it will be of significant help. The Eurozone countries, for the most part, have lower debt/GDP and deficit/GDP ratios than the U.S., but the big difference is that they don't have the right to print euros, whereas the U.S. can, and has, printed dollars to stave off a depression. The ECB is the only institution that can play that role in Europe, and if done so, it will provide much needed liquidity to the countries.
Remember back in 2008 what the ECB and the President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Junker, said? They advised the countries to run into debt, so the state(s) could save, not only the bank, but the economy. And so all the Euro countries (and some non-Euro EU countries) did. Many countries doubled their debt because the ECB said «run into debt and don't be afraid to do it because ECB will save you later, acting like any other central bank: printing money». It's 2011 and the countries are still waiting for it. Why? Not only because the status of the ECB doesn't allow it to do, but because printing money would bring back to Germany the ghost of inflation Weimar's era.
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Old 12-15-2011, 01:05 AM   #25
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It will be a good year.
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Old 12-15-2011, 03:17 AM   #26
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3 predictions
1. Most likely to happen, Elvis Presley will come out of hiding, and announce his engagement to Princess Diana.
2. Slightly less likely to happen, David Bowie will release a new album.
3. Absolutely no chance of happening, but I'm going for it anyway, U2 will release a new album.
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Old 12-15-2011, 10:50 AM   #27
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1. Europe survives, but the British feel ever more isolated and it's the beginning of the end of the Euro
2. Obama wins handily, unemployment still not below 8%
3. U2 releases an album in late November, arena tour to follow in March; it's a good album, but it's very much a U2 album; it's the beginning of the end
4. China slows down, the US feels better
5. Prop 8 is overturned in CA
6. Sarkozy is not reelected
7. summer is, again, one of the hottest on record
8. the Affordable Care Act becomes increasingly popular
9. Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte put on the greatest show in Olympic swimming history; when the waters settle, Phelps will have 6 golds, 1 silver, Lochte will have 3 golds, 3 silvers
10. Meryl Streep finally wins her 3rd Oscar
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Old 12-16-2011, 03:58 AM   #28
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Remember back in 2008 what the ECB and the President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Junker, said? They advised the countries to run into debt, so the state(s) could save, not only the bank, but the economy. And so all the Euro countries (and some non-Euro EU countries) did. Many countries doubled their debt because the ECB said «run into debt and don't be afraid to do it because ECB will save you later, acting like any other central bank: printing money». It's 2011 and the countries are still waiting for it. Why? Not only because the status of the ECB doesn't allow it to do, but because printing money would bring back to Germany the ghost of inflation Weimar's era.
I agree completely. Germany is also the most well off, has the lowest bond yields, and is Europe's largest economy. It's not facing liquidity problems like Italy is, while it also has more power over the ECB than Italy does, being it's largest shareholder. Many reasons for it, and therefore the ECB, not to want to print money. But I think they may have no choice in the end, or else they're all going down. The countries are too inter-connected.

There was a good piece in the Financial Times today, by John Paulson, in which he suggested a way around printing, with the ECB guaranteeing all new debt, and that alone will restore confidence and therefore reduce yields. I think it's a good idea, but I have a feeling that they're not going to do anything nearly as drastic until things get much worse.

Europe needs a firewall to stabilise markets - FT.com
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Old 12-16-2011, 04:32 AM   #29
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You guys really need to throw in some numbers to make this more interesting:

~

1. Obama re-elected by over 100 electoral votes

2. Affordable Care Act is upheld in Supreme Court by a 1-vote margin

3. Arizona's immigration law is struck down by the SC

4. Eurozone survives for the moment, but 2013 looks dire

~

Long shot bonus: Israel launches a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear program assets that does not lead to a full-scale conflict in the region
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Old 12-16-2011, 09:46 AM   #30
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I agree completely. Germany is also the most well off, has the lowest bond yields, and is Europe's largest economy. It's not facing liquidity problems like Italy is, while it also has more power over the ECB than Italy does, being it's largest shareholder. Many reasons for it, and therefore the ECB, not to want to print money. But I think they may have no choice in the end, or else they're all going down. The countries are too inter-connected.

There was a good piece in the Financial Times today, by John Paulson, in which he suggested a way around printing, with the ECB guaranteeing all new debt, and that alone will restore confidence and therefore reduce yields. I think it's a good idea, but I have a feeling that they're not going to do anything nearly as drastic until things get much worse.

Europe needs a firewall to stabilise markets - FT.com
Exactly. And it's not only for the european countries...
China and Brazil have already "warned" us, europeans, to put and end to this joyfull game, and have the balls to do what's it's needed, because it'll end the worse way even for "them". China's growth speed is already slowing down. And Brazil's too. This is the worst that could happen now.
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