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Old 05-30-2008, 08:02 PM   #1
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Oil prices at year end 2008

My prediction:

$85-$95 per barrel
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:31 PM   #2
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Isnt it $150 now ?
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:32 PM   #3
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I thought if we ended up at $105, that would be good.
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Old 05-30-2008, 08:43 PM   #4
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I love our Government's constant promises to make living easier for families, esp. re fuel prices. $1.60 a litre now
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Old 05-30-2008, 10:18 PM   #5
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$170 a barrel by year end.
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Old 05-31-2008, 06:00 AM   #6
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Predicting the oil price is like lottery. I would say by year's end it is around $140.

But well, that's just a more or less randomly picked figure.
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Old 05-31-2008, 02:17 PM   #7
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I think the Goldman Sachs prediction is $200+ a barrel.

Here's hoping that financeguy is the one who's right!
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Old 05-31-2008, 02:41 PM   #8
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something tells me, similar to what happened with the hostages in iran with in 1980, that OPEC will all of a sudden not have the same supply/demand issues the day bush leaves office... especially if obama wins, but i think even if mccain wins we'll still see something done.
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Old 05-31-2008, 02:42 PM   #9
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without doing any research

just going on a hunch

and a feel for the current trend

I'd say around $175 US


and U S gasoline prices will be in the $5 range


I believe one of the main drivers of pricing is demand for Diesel Fuel


What is in a barrel of oil?



http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/bro...sel/index.html
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Old 05-31-2008, 02:46 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
something tells me, similar to what happened with the hostages in iran with in 1980, that OPEC will all of a sudden not have the same supply/demand issues the day bush leaves office... especially if obama wins, but i think even if mccain wins we'll still see something done.
Oh, the OPEC is not necessarily the main cost driver these days. It is the derivatives markets with the huge amount of speculation that pushes the price.
The OPEC could reduce the prices for crude oil but don't expect too much from that.
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Old 05-31-2008, 03:01 PM   #11
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You mean us Americans are not the centre of the universe?
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Old 05-31-2008, 03:07 PM   #12
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No, my personal center of the universe is and always will be Australia.
I think most of the speculation in derivatives markets is done by Americans, but I could be wrong, don't have figures at hand, so in that sense they are the center of the raw material prices universe.

In conclusion: Thank your own investors for the rip-off you are experiencing at the gas station.

Oh, and your weak dollar isn't helping you much either, but to the contrary, it's even yet another reason for the high prices. But nevertheless, please make sure to leave it at that so I can cash in later this year.
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Old 05-31-2008, 03:29 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
I think most of the speculation in derivatives markets is done by Americans,

I did read or hear somewhere once,

that the oil on a tanker traveling across the Atlantic ocean will change owners 300 times before it unloads
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Old 05-31-2008, 03:34 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
Oh, the OPEC is not necessarily the main cost driver these days. It is the derivatives markets with the huge amount of speculation that pushes the price.
The OPEC could reduce the prices for crude oil but don't expect too much from that.
Declining exports coupled with rising demand are a bigger factor IMO than speculation. Speculators (such as myself) are an essential part of futures markets. They tend to stay away from the spot month, and eventually have to sell their positions (and move further out) because the contracts expire. Most of the little spare capacity OPEC has is of the heavy, sour crude which most refineries cannot process.

This graphic from the WSJ gives a good overview of the declining exports:

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Old 05-31-2008, 03:46 PM   #15
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Oh, and your weak dollar isn't helping you much either, but to the contrary, it's even yet another reason for the high prices.


I wonder who really is paying more for petrol
Americans or Europeans?

currently I am paying $0.27 per mile driven

I think that is $0.17 per kilometer.

or .09 British pounds per kilometer driven

or .11 Euros per kilometer driven
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