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Old 08-21-2008, 06:43 PM   #61
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Hey, good guess!
Why - It's $121 today. I think we may have another dip (but not to a level below $105) in the next few weeks, but I still think we'll finish the year higher than today's close. There are many unknowns, of course, between now and then. A weakening dollar and a stimulus package in China would be bullish factors.
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Old 08-21-2008, 06:50 PM   #62
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I think I feel pretty optimistic about the dollar, maybe more than I should be, and I'm going on little more than a gut feeling at this point. $105 may be too low, but I think $110 is a reasonable guess.
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Old 08-22-2008, 06:20 PM   #63
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Well, it looks like oil lost all of yesterday's gains today.
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Old 08-22-2008, 09:23 PM   #64
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I think a 10% correction is likely at this point. The US driving season ends after Labor Day, and energy prices tend to be weak in September. There's also a possibility of a release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve in this election year (similar to what Bill Clinton did in Sept. 1999). I exited my long positions a few weeks ago and may wait until after the election to get back in, depending on the trends.
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Old 08-22-2008, 09:48 PM   #65
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I exited my long positions a few weeks ago and may wait until after the election to get back in, depending on the trends.
Interesting.
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Old 09-09-2008, 04:30 PM   #66
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Oil falls below $100 a barrel ahead of Opec meeting - Times Online
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Old 09-09-2008, 06:08 PM   #67
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Yeah - the market is a bit unusual at the moment. Hurricane Gustav shut several refineries (triggering SPR oil to be released). And about $15 of that drop was due to gains in the dollar over the past two months. Interestingly the stock market dropped today - it usually rallies when oil tanks. We might be seeing deflation set in a bit. The forecasters didn't predict the 3-4% decline in demand and global slowdown we've seen due to the high prices. A lot of the offshore drilling projects McCain wants may be at risk at these price levels and below, which is probably fine by OPEC. My new price floor for the rest of the year is mid-90s, although I think it'll bounce off of that level.
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Old 09-09-2008, 06:12 PM   #68
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It is going lower. Short this mofo all the way down.
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Old 09-09-2008, 07:00 PM   #69
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I'm not a big fan of Jim Cramer, but here's his take:

Quote:
Here's how I feel about it: I believe that oil must be headed much lower, or you could not get this type of action. It has to, because China has simply stopped buying anything.

I urge people to recognize that the speculators certainly accentuated and exacerbated any moves in oil that might have been bullish, but the underlying bullish tendency was because of China, not any of the extraneous issues.
I think once China gets working on their current liquidity crisis (e.g. by printing more money), we'll see a rebound. It's not only oil - most of the commodities are getting hammered.
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Old 09-09-2008, 09:56 PM   #70
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ft.com:

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Opec agrees on small cut to oil production

VIENNA, Sept 10 - OPEC’s new production allocations totalling 28.8m barrels per day, agreed on Wednesday, represent a 520,000 bpd cut from the group’s July output, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said.

Khelil said he still saw surplus oil supply building on the market by the end of the year and increasing in the first months of 2009.

He told a news conference at the end of OPEC’s near five hours meeting that members will adjust output over the next 40 days.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:58 AM   #71
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Possible gasoline shortages coming to the East Coast and Midwest because of Gulf Coast hurricanes and refinery shutdowns.

From Indiana:


Wholesale gas prices are over $4 along the Gulf Coast, and price spikes are being seen in other areas as well. There are reports of "voluntary rationing" in states like North Carolina and Tennessee as well.

SC today:

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Old 09-12-2008, 02:05 PM   #72
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Another shorting opportunity next week, then.
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Old 09-12-2008, 02:56 PM   #73
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Another shorting opportunity next week, then.
This week has been good for shorting crude and going long product (i.e. gasoline). That crack spread should widen if the refineries stay offline for a while.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:48 PM   #74
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Hurricane Ike gas price spikes - gas is back over $4 in many places. This will get a lot worse IMO.

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Old 09-13-2008, 09:36 AM   #75
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Okay, which dumbass decided to put such a large percentage of the nation's oil refineries in a fucking hurricane zone?
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