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Old 07-27-2008, 10:07 PM   #46
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Earlier, oil-rich nations opened their spigots to prevent run-ups in prices. In the early 1980s, oil from the British and Norwegian North Sea started to flow in large volumes and helped push down prices even as war raged between Iran and Iraq, disrupting Mideast supplies. During the Persian Gulf War after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, Saudi Arabia increased production to head off a spike in oil prices.

But now, the cushion is all but gone. And Saudi Arabia, which is home to what little spare capacity remains, has become reluctant to temper price increases by boosting production. Quite the reverse, the kingdom and its fellow OPEC members have trimmed production on those few occasions when prices showed signs of slipping, most recently in late 2006.

That has left the global oil market particularly vulnerable to threats as varied as hurricanes in the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico, the potential for war with Iran and pipeline attacks by small groups of insurgents in remote parts of the Niger Delta.
washingtonpost.com
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Old 08-04-2008, 04:16 PM   #47
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Deutsche calls the top of the commodity cycle - Telegraph

Very bearish report from Deutsche Bank:-

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Deutsche Bank has called the top of the commodity cycle. The uber-bulls of the oil, food and metals boom have advised clients to take profits before the downturn engulfing most of the global economy works its inevitable effects.

Oil will slide back towards its "marginal production cost" of $60 to $80 a barrel; gold will slump to $650 an ounce as the dollar recovers against the euro; copper, lead and tin will slowly halve in price; grains will calm down as harvests in Australia and the Eurasian Steppe return to normal.

The report comes on cue. The CRB commodity index fell 10pc last month, the steepest one-month drop since the onset of the Volcker crunch in 1980. Most raw materials have been slipping for months. Crude was the last to turn after peaking at $147 early last month.

advertisementDeutsche Bank says this year's oil surge has been a quirk. Misjudging demand, Saudi Arabia cut output by 400,000 barrels a day (bpd). Several upsets hit the non-Opec bloc of Russia, Norway, the UK, and Mexico. Rebels caused mayhem in Nigeria. Global supply is now creeping back into surplus.
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Old 08-04-2008, 04:26 PM   #48
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I think is time to use other tipes of energy!
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Old 08-04-2008, 10:53 PM   #49
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"Oil will slide back towards its "marginal production cost" of $60 to $80 a barrel; gold will slump to $650 an ounce as the dollar recovers against the euro;"

Trichet is a bigger inflation hawk than Bernanke, so I don't see that happening. We may say a further slight seasonal dip in oil prices in the next month or two, but the fourth quarter will probably see prices rise again.
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Old 08-05-2008, 12:03 PM   #50
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I wanted to pay my uni bill in the US and now it's down to 1.5461 again.
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Old 08-05-2008, 06:50 PM   #51
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[I]"Oil will slide back towards its "marginal production cost" of $60 to $80 a barrel
I cant see Oil dropping to this level. Up here where I live (northern alberta) we have more proven reserves than the Saudi's and the investments going on up here are something to be seen. Every few months there is another 10billion dollar mega project announced.

The oil in Alberta, tarsands or oilsands, is very hard to extract. Some call it Dirty oil (Al Gore), this dirty oil is much more expensive to get out of the ground, it involves total strip mining and alot of upgrading. These oil companies (mainly American groups) are pushing 100% ahead for projects that are 5-10 years from seeing profits, they must know something we dont as they wouldnt be investing so much without really believing that oil is going to stay very high. 32$ a barrel is what I believe to be their breakeven point for oil that is extracted out of the oilsands. And their profit margins have to be pretty thick on top of that 32$.

Oh the money these oil companies have!
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Old 08-06-2008, 12:41 PM   #52
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I cant see Oil dropping to this level.
Same here. The breakeven point for a lot of new offshore projects being planned is even higher, as daily rates for a deepwater drill can be a half million dollars or more, and platforms can cost a few hundred million to build.
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Old 08-08-2008, 08:36 PM   #53
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There's a war after breaking out in Ossetia and oil STILL goes down.

That is indicating to me that this is a Bear market - barring, of course a worsening in this conflict.
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:00 PM   #54
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How much of the oil drop has to do with the Enron loophole being closed several weeks ago when the omnibus Farm Bill was passed?
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:04 PM   #55
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How much of the oil drop has to do with the Enron loophole being closed several weeks ago when the omnibus Farm Bill was passed?
Do you have a link for this?
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:32 PM   #56
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A couple:

Political Radar: Congress Seeks to Close the 'Enron Loophole'

Jim Hamilton’s World of Securities Regulation

I have done a bit of securities work but I'm really not well versed in this area so I'm wondering about everyone else's thoughts.
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:59 PM   #57
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There's a war after breaking out in Ossetia and oil STILL goes down.

That is indicating to me that this is a Bear market - barring, of course a worsening in this conflict.
The dollar had the biggest one day gain in around 8 years as well. Oil demand typically declines in the fall, and China has a few million cars off the road for the Olympics. So we are in a bearish trend for now - we'll see how long it lasts. OPEC would probably be happy with around $100 - 110 a barrel - anything much higher and they feel threatened by talk of substitutes.
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Old 08-21-2008, 11:10 AM   #58
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Oil's up around $10 over the past 2 days. Was the selloff to $110 overdone? I think around $105-110 will be the price floor for the rest of the year.
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Old 08-21-2008, 02:34 PM   #59
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It's looking that way, right enough.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:26 PM   #60
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I thought if we ended up at $105, that would be good.
Hey, good guess!
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