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Old 05-31-2008, 03:49 PM   #16
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Hard to answer as I'm honestly lacking the data. Last I heard was that the speculation makes more than 30 percent of the oil price, but that's more than a year ago.
I'm afraid the declining output might act as an accelerator even. If you see such a table that clearly shows how supply is decreasing of course you will bet on rising oil prices. And it's no secret that we are not really that seriously trying to lower our demand, and that's not only the case for the US.
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Old 05-31-2008, 04:09 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
I wonder who really is paying more for petrol
Americans or Europeans?

currently I am paying $0.27 per mile driven

I think that is $0.17 per kilometer.

or .09 British pounds per kilometer driven

or .11 Euros per kilometer driven
Hm, in Germany prices recently peaked at €1.54/litre, which would be €5,85/gallon, or $2.39/litre and $9.08/gallon respectively.
But Germany is special as we have two taxes on gas, once the VAT at 19 percent, and on top of that a gasoline & ecotax, which makes it especially expensive here.
We have just had a historic moment here in Germany: For the first time diesel has been more expensive than gasoline.
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Old 05-31-2008, 04:36 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
I think most of the speculation in derivatives markets is done by Americans, but I could be wrong, don't have figures at hand, so in that sense they are the center of the raw material prices universe.
The London-based ICE actually has a higher volume and lower margin requirement for Brent crude than does the NYMEX for WTI crude.

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Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
Hard to answer as I'm honestly lacking the data. Last I heard was that the speculation makes more than 30 percent of the oil price, but that's more than a year ago.
I'm afraid the declining output might act as an accelerator even. If you see such a table that clearly shows how supply is decreasing of course you will bet on rising oil prices. And it's no secret that we are not really that seriously trying to lower our demand, and that's not only the case for the US.
Yes, declining exports will accelerate, which is why I'm always long crude. The 30% is hard to quantify - you have to differentiate between physical and financial speculators. On the day the contract expires (each month), the contract terms require physical delivery of the oil. Most speculators don't take the physical delivery, but some do (if they own oil tanks).
Financial speculators have to be out of the contract before it expires. That means the settlement price on expiration is determined by the physical oil participants.
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Old 05-31-2008, 06:48 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Vincent Vega View Post
We have just had a historic moment here in Germany: For the first time diesel has been more expensive than gasoline.
That also happened in the U S awhile back.

I believe the higher demand for diesel for transport trucks and other large equipment is driving the cost of oil up more than petrol.


I just bought a tank of gasoline at $4.50 a gallon.

based on my vehicle's gas mileage

I am paying $0.30 to drive one mile

or $0.19 for each kilometer I drive


I do believe the average Euro car is much more fuel efficient

than the average American's car

my example was what each person is paying
for the petrol or gasoline they purchase

we could even look at a percentage of monthly income used for gasoline/ petrol purchases
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Old 05-31-2008, 10:24 PM   #20
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The British get the cheapest diesel in Europe but after tax and everything else thrown in, it ends the most expensive
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Old 06-04-2008, 01:13 PM   #21
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Since oil has slid about 12 bucks a barrel in the past 10 days, we should see a corresponding drop in gas prices right? Afterall, they have been telling us that gas prices are directly related to oil prices.
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Old 06-04-2008, 01:15 PM   #22
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Since oil has slid about 12 bucks a barrel in the past 10 days, we should see a corresponding drop in gas prices right? Afterall, they have been telling us that gas prices are directly related to oil prices.
That's only meant for when it's the way up.
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Old 06-04-2008, 01:32 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
That also happened in the U S awhile back.

I believe the higher demand for diesel for transport trucks and other large equipment is driving the cost of oil up more than petrol.


I just bought a tank of gasoline at $4.50 a gallon.

based on my vehicle's gas mileage

I am paying $0.30 to drive one mile

or $0.19 for each kilometer I drive


I do believe the average Euro car is much more fuel efficient

than the average American's car

my example was what each person is paying
for the petrol or gasoline they purchase

we could even look at a percentage of monthly income used for gasoline/ petrol purchases
Yeah, I would think there are less SUV's driving at least in Germany (though still a hell of a lot, especially if you consider that most license plates have a B for Berlin, M for Munich, HH for Hamburg etc.) and the big 7er BMW, Audi A8 or Mercedes S-Class aren't that popular I guess (but that's hard to tell, one I don't have the figures of how many are registered in Germany, and two I don't have any experience how it looks like in the US.

I guess on average fuel consumption of German cars should be less than 10 litres on 100km, maybe even around 6l/100km.

Looking for a percentage of income spent on fuel in both the US and European countries would be nice, but you would have to account for so many factors that it would take quite some time to make a representative calculation.

Just taking average fuel efficiency for certain areas, like urban, rural, mountaneous etc., might give you a hint of how differently costs of driving these cars are perceived.

Additionally, I've just read an article in German magazine Der Spiegel that General Motors is shifting production from pickups and SUVs towards electrical powered and smaller cars, and they are even thinking of what to do with Hummer.

It might very well be that in not too long into the future the price level of gas and diesel in Europe and the US is about even.

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Originally Posted by ntalwar View Post
The London-based ICE actually has a higher volume and lower margin requirement for Brent crude than does the NYMEX for WTI crude.



Yes, declining exports will accelerate, which is why I'm always long crude. The 30% is hard to quantify - you have to differentiate between physical and financial speculators. On the day the contract expires (each month), the contract terms require physical delivery of the oil. Most speculators don't take the physical delivery, but some do (if they own oil tanks).
Financial speculators have to be out of the contract before it expires. That means the settlement price on expiration is determined by the physical oil participants.
Ok, thanks for that. I've just started learning about derivatives, and it's sure a very complex market. I've yet to start with weather derivatives.
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Old 06-05-2008, 10:24 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randhail View Post
Since oil has slid about 12 bucks a barrel in the past 10 days, we should see a corresponding drop in gas prices right? Afterall, they have been telling us that gas prices are directly related to oil prices.
There was a brief correction of about 10% for oil, but it was up $6/barrel today. Wholesale gasoline prices dropped around 15 cents before recovering today. It may translate into a few cents at the pump (briefly), especially since there was some demand destruction for gasoline of around 1.4% (vs. the same week last year) due to the higher prices.
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Old 06-05-2008, 10:34 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
I wonder who really is paying more for petrol
Americans or Europeans?

currently I am paying $0.27 per mile driven

I think that is $0.17 per kilometer.

or .09 British pounds per kilometer driven

or .11 Euros per kilometer driven
That is a question of fuel efficiency not taxation, Australians pay more for fuel and have a bloody big country to boot.
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:11 PM   #26
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Prices today in Vancouver. I hear it's up to $1.50 in places on the east coast.

C$1.41 > US$1.38 > €.89 > A$1.44 per litre

C$5.40 or US$5.31 per gallon(US)

C$6.41 or £3.22 per gallon(UK)

One year ago it was C$1.13 litre and six years ago it was .64c
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:18 PM   #27
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^

Holy shit that's high. We're at $1.25 in TO.
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Old 06-05-2008, 11:59 PM   #28
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I've seen plenty of graphics around illustrating it globally. Can't right now seem to find a recent one online. The US though have it pretty good. Comparatively quite cheap to most other places. About half what most of Europe is paying.

Australia is roughly halfway between the two, and the issue has really only started gathering significant steam recently. People have been complaining about for a long time though, but political steam, only recently.
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Old 06-06-2008, 12:53 PM   #29
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So some analyst opens up his yapper about oil being $150 by July 4 and the price of oil jumps up as soon as he says it. I love self-fulfilling prophecies.

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Prices pushed sharply higher Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer said he expected strong demand in Asia could drive prices to $150 by Independence Day, when millions of Americans are expected to take to the roads.
Why can't he drive the price of baseball cards? I'd be able to retire in a flash.
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Old 06-06-2008, 01:25 PM   #30
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There was a brief correction of about 10% for oil, but it was up $6/barrel today. Wholesale gasoline prices dropped around 15 cents before recovering today. It may translate into a few cents at the pump (briefly), especially since there was some demand destruction for gasoline of around 1.4% (vs. the same week last year) due to the higher prices.
Oh boy - oil's up around $16 off the low of the week (I guess I should be happy as an investor). Wholesale gasoline is up 17 cents today - not looking good for the pump prices.
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