Mexican flu reminiscent of SARS

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I'm relieved that I have no idea who those people are or what the hell The Hills is.
 
Audrina Patridge of Hills is the daughter and neice of 2 HS buddies that were friends of mine growing up in So. Cal.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand, I just got this from some of my people:

A friend of ours is a Dr. down in the San Marcos/NB area and sent this out. I felt it contained some insightful stuff not seen on the news.
Marc is a very intelligent and "with it" guy, he worked as a botanist for Pfizer in South America...then decided to become a Dr.

I hope it helps answer some questions and it does have some good suggestions for alternative medications ect.

"After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I know.

- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
- Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual)
- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.
- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis.
- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.
- I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.
- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that -- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.
- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.
- N-Acetyl-Cysteine -- a nutritional supplement available at the health food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.
- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy I am adding to this ( Teresa) you can get these at Whole Foods , Wild Oats or Sprouts etc or any health food organic places


I will try to keep everyone posted if I have any new information. Meanwhile, don't be afraid just avoid infection. The fewer people infected the easier it will be for our public officials to manage it."
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<>
 
so i'm reading diamonds post and i'm thinking about how this morning i was coughing a bit and i remembered being hoarse yesterday and i sneezed earlier, and all of this i would have just chalked up to mild allergic reactions to the pollen at this time of year. but then i think about all the time i spend on the metro and i'm looking at my desk and wondering if i can't find some desk cleaner and i start to think about my compromised lungs and get worried. and then i read this:


Va. reports first 2 cases of confirmed swine flu
May 1, 2009 - 4:48am
By BOB LEWIS
AP Political Writer

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - A man and a woman from Virginia contracted swine flu from recent trips to Mexico and have recovered after mild cases, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said Thursday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that one man from eastern Virginia and a woman from central Virginia contracted the illness, Health Commissioner Karen Remley said.

"This is an evolving situation, so people still need take it very seriously," Remley said.

Neither patient required hospitalization, she said, and both are otherwise healthy adults.

Citing patient privacy, Remley and Kaine refused to be more specific about the patients, including characterizing them as young, middle-aged or elderly. Remley narrowed down the location of the man to the Hampton Roads, Peninsula or Northern Neck regions of the state.

Virginia is the 12th state to have flu cases confirmed by the CDC, bringing the total to 111 cases nationally. Officials in eight states have confirmed an additional 19 cases.

Twelve deaths in Mexico and one in the United States have resulted from confirmed cases caused by the virus, an outbreak the World Health Organization calls a pandemic.

"Given the size of the state's population (and) the seasonal travel patterns we see in Virginia and elsewhere, and the ease with which the flu virus is spread, we think it is likely there will be additional cases," Kaine said.

In heavy numbers, Virginians with some of the cold-like symptoms have been checking with their doctors, Kaine said. Some of the cases have been lesser ailments such as seasonal allergies. What distinguishes swine flu from those maladies is a fever, he said.

It's the second news conference Kaine has held this week about a disease that has caused only minor problems so far in Virginia. He dismissed the suggestion that the threat was being overplayed because its potential for harm is not fully known.

"This is a strain of flu that we have not seen. There is not a vaccine for it. It has proven virulent in Mexico; we don't yet understand why the cases in the United States have not proven to be virulent," Kaine said. "Forewarned is forearmed."

(Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
By BOB LEWIS
AP Political Writer

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - A man and a woman from Virginia contracted swine flu from recent trips to Mexico and have recovered after mild cases, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said Thursday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that one man from eastern Virginia and a woman from central Virginia contracted the illness, Health Commissioner Karen Remley said.

"This is an evolving situation, so people still need take it very seriously," Remley said.

Neither patient required hospitalization, she said, and both are otherwise healthy adults.

Citing patient privacy, Remley and Kaine refused to be more specific about the patients, including characterizing them as young, middle-aged or elderly. Remley narrowed down the location of the man to the Hampton Roads, Peninsula or Northern Neck regions of the state.

Virginia is the 12th state to have flu cases confirmed by the CDC, bringing the total to 111 cases nationally. Officials in eight states have confirmed an additional 19 cases.

Twelve deaths in Mexico and one in the United States have resulted from confirmed cases caused by the virus, an outbreak the World Health Organization calls a pandemic.

"Given the size of the state's population (and) the seasonal travel patterns we see in Virginia and elsewhere, and the ease with which the flu virus is spread, we think it is likely there will be additional cases," Kaine said.

In heavy numbers, Virginians with some of the cold-like symptoms have been checking with their doctors, Kaine said. Some of the cases have been lesser ailments such as seasonal allergies. What distinguishes swine flu from those maladies is a fever, he said.

It's the second news conference Kaine has held this week about a disease that has caused only minor problems so far in Virginia. He dismissed the suggestion that the threat was being overplayed because its potential for harm is not fully known.

"This is a strain of flu that we have not seen. There is not a vaccine for it. It has proven virulent in Mexico; we don't yet understand why the cases in the United States have not proven to be virulent," Kaine said. "Forewarned is forearmed."
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so two people got mildly ill and now they are better. is there much more to all this than this?
 
so i'm reading diamonds post and i'm thinking about how this morning i was coughing a bit and i remembered being hoarse yesterday and i sneezed earlier
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Well, I think if one starts getting hoarse, with body aches, chills etc-then get nervous.

Just because you ride the subway and come home cough once and sneeze twice shouldn't have you jumping to conclusions.

<>
 
Irvine511 said:
so two people got mildly ill and now they are better. is there much more to all this than this?
Click to expand...

Hopefully not. But the scientists/doctors over at Effect Measure caution us not to dismiss it. It could continue to mutate and come back strong during the winter. For now it seems pretty mild. What's going on in Mexico is still mysterious, however.

A friend of mine was literally the first to be tested here. :| Still waiting for results.
 
Just read Diamond's post... it's hard to know what to believe. Mexican friends here who are in touch with people in Mexico also say it's way worse than is being reported but I'm cautious with anecdotal information (although not so cautious that I wouldn't mention it in passing in an online forum, lol).

I just want to echo that N-Acetyl-Cysteine is an amazing supplement. I use it all the time with great results and had forgotten to mention it.

I have also used Oscillococinum successfully for many years to knock out the flu fast but I didn't know about its effectiveness with this flu. Homeopathics worked exceedingly well in 1918 according to physician diaries.

Thanks big D.
 
joyfulgirl said:
Hopefully not. But the scientists/doctors over at Effect Measure caution us not to dismiss it. It could continue to mutate and come back strong during the winter. For now it seems pretty mild. What's going on in Mexico is still mysterious, however.
Click to expand...

This current outbreak could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. I was reading that they're currently working on a vaccine that should be ready within 4 to 6 months, so, in time for any possible reemergence during the winter flu season.

The advice to avoid sick people makes me laugh. Given that probably 75% of our population is walking around sniffling, sneezing and coughing due to seasonal allergies at the moment, you'd pretty much have to cloister yourself to avoid it. My daughter came home from school for the summer this past Monday. Monday night she said her throat was sore. Now she has a full-blown cold. Should I pitch a tent for her in the backyard till she's better? The girl she caught it from was hoarse for a day. :shrug: Any throat irritant, including post-nasal drip from allergies can cause hoarseness. I've had some very mild allergy/sinus thing going on this week. Who knows, maybe we do have it, and we're recovering and building up immunity right now.

Not that I'm dismissing any of it, I do see the potential for seriousness, I just don't think we've gotten there yet.

I'm also curious as to why things seem so much worse in Mexico. I wonder if it's because the infection numbers are much, much higher than being reported, and as such, the death rates in Mexico are more proportional to a normal flu outbreak. Mutation doesn't really make sense, because many of the US cases and almost all of the reported cases in Canada have been from travellers to Mexico, and they seem to be recovering with little or no intervention. Maybe the genetic thing that someone mentioned earlier in the thread?
 
I just read there's an unconfirmed case in my home county, and the schools in one district have been closed until further notice. :|
 
All I can think of with regard to this is a want to read Stephen King's The Stand again.
 
HyperU2 said:
That book is longer than this outbreak.
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Diamond, did you notice a conservative has the same avatar that I once had, the one that apparently offended you enough that you complained to the mods? Let's see how consistent Diamond will be...

BTW great avatar Hyper
 
BVS said:
Diamond, did you notice a conservative has the same avatar that I once had, the one that apparently offended you enough that you complained to the mods? Let's see how consistent Diamond will be...

BTW great avatar Hyper
Click to expand...


I hate folks that get offended by art. Oh well, likewise to you.
 
hmm I'm not so sure abound Diamond's info, for a start the stats are all up in thin air...there just isn't enough info yet to come up with infection rates and all that. So far this has been no worse than seasonal flu, and in fact Mexico has just lowered it's expected death toll 101. A lot of what is flying about out there is pure hype...it's true you have to be a bad bugger of a virus to infect animals and then humans but we still just don't know enough yet and my microbiology lecturer is working on this as we speak.
 
^ :lol:

So that's how it happens!!! The textbooks so didn't explain it well....





I haven't caught up an all the posts, but I just wanted to say with regards to the mysteriousness of the higher death rate in mexico, we should take note of what portion of the population this has been occurring in.
If it is occurring in the poor, then it's not just the flu their bodies have to deal with, putting them at a significant disadvantage.

And I think some of you are mentioning, the monitoring and data are still shaky. Deaths are noticeable, a few people with a cough are not. Until you can confirm how many people have been mildly infected, it's pretty hard to come up with any sort of determination of its virility. Seeing as how, from what Ive heard the flu in US citizens is a genetic match to those infected in mexico, I would suggest that the mildness of cases we've seen may be far more representative, and the deaths in Mexico just suggest it is very widespread.
As I think VP mentioned tho, this does not discount the ability of the virus to mutate into something far more serious. Flu has a high recombination and mutation rate thanks to its segmented genome, but it seems we've caught it early. As long as they stay on it, I'm not overly concerned.

I wouldn't chatting with some of the profs I know, one of them works on flu, one of them was involved with SARS as well....:hmm:
 
The media hype seems to have died down-on to the next thing. I have heard that there are schools closing for a week even though there are no confirmed cases. What about every other illness that can be passed on in schools?

There's a dairy farm down the street from me that has two new pigs every year, I was there over the weekend and I admit that I thought about it-but it didn't make me stay away from the pigs (they're behind fencing anyway). You are much more likely to be bitten by one than to get swine flu from one. This woman's little dog was face to face with a pig-and even though I know you can't get it from pigs I still didn't think that was the best idea. If I still had my dog I wouldn't have let her get near them-just out of an abundance of caution (and for the other germs they may have and the biting).. There were people letting their kids look at them, so at least there weren't panicky parents there. I doubt they would let them touch them though, you can touch the goats and the sheep and the cows there.
 
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