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Old 10-07-2008, 10:06 PM   #16
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I remain to be convinced stocks are at bottom.
Agreed - I think stocks could drop another 15-20% easily.
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Old 10-07-2008, 11:03 PM   #17
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I think shorting the euro, shorting the GBP, shorting oil are better opportunities at present. Long gold, perhaps, but if were talking humungous scale deflation, maybe not.

I remain to be convinced stocks are at bottom.
How low do you think oil is going to go?

It's sad, my holidays now will become more expensive. I hope the Euro stays above 1.32 at least.
But I was never good at making predictions.
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Old 10-08-2008, 06:32 AM   #18
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bottom line could be tomorrow or this week

look at the trends of the past 6 days, if this continues 30 dow jones titles would be at zero at the start of november. this is just not real, because imho the real value of GE hasn´t collapsed like the stock value.

at the moment it either makes sense to buy small quantities of many positions and sell them shortly thereafter to follow the daily trend (need to watch, control, change every second though) or to wait some more days and then have a try when everything´s at the all low down bottom.

as to gold, there won´t be enough to satisfy everyone´s security dreams but 5-10% in your portfolio probably makes sense. silver is a bit more tricky, its been up yesterday but a look at the last 5 years shows it hasn´t been performing that well.
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Old 10-08-2008, 08:40 AM   #19
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What's the opinion on Russia and emerging markets these days? They've been melting down frantically over the last month, and I have a (thankfully small) specialized emerging markets mutual fund heavily weighted towards Russia that has lost 61% YTD. Of course, the overall global emerging markets fund in the same company has lost 54% YTD, so that makes 61% not seem as inappropriate.

In other words, how much further do you think this is going to meltdown, and is it worth riding the course? I'm really not one to "buy high, sell low," but these kind of losses make me wonder if keeping the small, long term systematic purchases going are worth it.
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Old 10-08-2008, 06:26 PM   #20
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I do not know enough about Russia but the East European markets are going down the drain as well.. because a couple of Austrian and German businesses have invested heavily in this area, they are/ have been cutting down their investments there

also I woudn´t count on automotive

a friend of mine has lost a couple of thousands with a big Austrian Immo with most portfolio in Eastern Europe, not happy at all but the stocks are so low no one is going to sell them now, people who have not enough time to worry and change their portfolio just hope for a rise so maybe in 3 years they can sell it for the value they got it

how is America doing I hear many small property owners, families, are heavily affected

imo it was a mistake of European banks to buy the bad guaranteees of American banks, thats one pf the reasons why it hits Europe bad -

a specific investment for a company that does well and is undervalued at the moment might make sense, but the low apparently hasn´t been reached as of yet, everyone´s panicking like shit.
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Old 10-08-2008, 06:41 PM   #21
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The Fed though...


some people complain about the Fed


and in a way we know we´re all gonna pay this - Europeans and Americans - where does the money come from to save those banks - taxes of course


to me it just seems a few people are cashing off
like the CEOs who have to leave, for fucking this up they get 10 million $ check of bonus, nice innit, so the Fed can buy and put Liddy in, uh and the bank gets another 85 billion

and even this clusterfuck is tied to Europe because they hold insurance guarantees for other fonds...
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Old 10-09-2008, 04:18 PM   #22
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Stocks hammered today, again (a 5 year low):

S&P 500 909.92 -75.02 -7.62%
Dow 8,579.19 -678.91 -7.33%

GM Shares Fall to Lowest Level Since 1950.
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Old 03-04-2009, 06:38 PM   #23
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Is the time of maximum opportunity almost here?

stages_6.jpg (image)


Two different views:

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg News
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Old 03-04-2009, 06:56 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by financeguy View Post
I think shorting the euro, shorting the GBP, shorting oil are better opportunities at present. Long gold, perhaps, but if were talking humungous scale deflation, maybe not.

I remain to be convinced stocks are at bottom.
5 out of 5

Still think euro has further to fall.
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Old 03-04-2009, 07:41 PM   #25
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I thought this thread said "Let's talk about socks!"

I got a little excited. Then re-read.
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Old 03-04-2009, 07:45 PM   #26
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Socks sales probably suffer in a recession.

People will re-use old pairs again and again, rather than buy new ones.

So, short socks, at least premium sock making brands, but maybe go long on discount brands?
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