Is the US bankrupt?

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
Well, I plan to keep an open mind.

We'll know in a few months on how things pan out, so far this guy is pretty accurate.

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BELGIUM’s Fortis is this weekend poised to become the first large continental bank to fall victim to the credit crunch, as the global chaos continues with Bradford & Bingley and American savings giant Wachovia both teetering on the brink.

The Belgian central bank and the country’s regulator are paving the way for a bailout of the huge banking and insurance group, which has a £540 billion balance sheet and a market value of £12 billion.

In Britain, the fate of Bradford & Bingley will be decided today. Fren-etic talks between the Bank of England, the Financial Services Authority and the government have been taking place this weekend to save the troubled mortgage bank.

B&B and Fortis both in crisis - Times Online
 
I'm really interested in how things will shake down in the UK as time goes on.

And here we go:

Troubled bank Bradford & Bingley is to be nationalised, the BBC has learned.

...

The bank will be nationalised using special legislation the Treasury put through when it took Northern Rock into public ownership earlier this year.
The measure is expected be announced on Sunday night or Monday morning.
 
no. i imagine financeguy will have an opinion on this, and i really want to hear it... but the analysts that ive head on this side of the pond say is that the euro will do even better by comparison.

I will unfortunately have to reserve judgment. Predicting exchange rate movements is not my forte.
 
we could be on the edge of a world wide financial collapse

liquidity is a serious problem

banks do not have access to money market funds

businesses that buy (borrow ) money on a daily basis are having difficult times finding it to meet payrolls and other obligations.
 
What do you think about the predictions that UBS is the next big one?

UBS might survive. The Swiss government has probably already bailed them out behind the scenes (just speculation, I have no knowledge if they have or not).
 
The Euro hasn't "profited" that much from this crisis. It went up again about five to eight cents to around 1.45 to 1.47x, but that's far from its high earlier this year when it stayed around 1.57 for weeks.
Investors don't really trust the European economies at the moment, and hence not the Euro. They rather invest in bonds than in currencies.
At least that's what I got told.
 
Europe is scary as well (posted part of this the other day):

The crucial problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. For example, the total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leverage ratio over 50!) amount to about €2,000bn (more than Fannie Mae) or more than 80 per cent of the gross domestic product of Germany. This is simply too much for the Bundesbank or even the German state, given that the German budget is bound by the rules of the European Union’s stability pact and the German government cannot order (unlike the US Treasury) its central bank to issue more currency. Similarly, the total liabilities of Barclays of around £1,300bn (leverage ratio 60!) are roughly equivalent to the GDP of the UK. Fortis bank has a leverage ratio of “only” 33, but its liabilities are three times the GDP of its home country of Belgium.

With banks that have outgrown their home turf, national treasuries and regulators in Europe are living on borrowed time: they cannot simply develop “road maps” (the only result of various Ecofin discussions of regulatory reform by finance ministers), but must contemplate a worst-case scenario.

Given that solutions for the largest institutions can no longer be found at the national level it is apparent that the European Central Bank will need to be put in charge as it is the only institution that can issue unlimited amounts of a global reserve currency. The authorities in the UK and Switzerland – which cannot rely on the ECB – can only pray that no accident happens to the giants they have in their own garden.

FT.com / Europe - European banking on borrowed time
 
The Euro hasn't "profited" that much from this crisis. It went up again about five to eight cents to around 1.45 to 1.47x, but that's far from its high earlier this year when it stayed around 1.57 for weeks.
Investors don't really trust the European economies at the moment, and hence not the Euro. They rather invest in bonds than in currencies.
At least that's what I got told.


Yes.

Spain and Ireland have had bigger housing price booms than the US, and, accordingly, will have bigger come-downs.

And all the Med countries have crap government deficits.

Add up the national incomes of the Med countries, that's a pretty large slice of the Eurozone right there.

If I were German I'd be wanting to leave the eurozone and preserve the value of my Deutschmark.
 
Pre-election Militarization of the North American Homeland. US Combat Troops in Iraq repatriated to " help with civil unrest"

by Peter Dale Scott, September 26, 2008


North-American Monetary Integration: Here Comes the Amero

by Andrew G. Marshall, January 20, 2008


05/19/08 Economic collapse in September?

by Clif Droke, May 17, 2008

On March 18, 2008, a “closed door” session of Congress was held for only the fourth time in history. According to House Rule XVII, clause 9, it is forbidden for members of the U.S. House of Representatives to reveal the discussions held behind those doors. The penalty for leaking such information includes loss of seniority, fines, reprimand, censure or expulsion. According to news sources, one purpose of the meetings was to discuss new surveillance techniques to be used by U.S. Homeland Security. Rumors continue to swirl as to what the other topics of discussion took place in that meeting.

According to the Australia.TO newspaper, as reported in the May 2008 Last Trumpet Newsletter (LTM), several congressmen were so incensed about what was discussed behind those doors that they were compelled to leak the contents of the meeting. Following is what is rumored to have been discussed: Imminent collapse of the U.S. economy by September 2008; imminent collapse of the U.S. Government finances by February 2009; possibility of civil war within the U.S. resulting from the collapse; detainment of “insurgent U.S. citizens” in anticipation of their moving against the government; the potential for violent action taken by citizens against members of Congress due to the collapses; the merger of the U.S. economy with those of Canada and Mexico as a solution to the collapse; the introduction of a new tri-national currency called the “AMERO” as another economic solution.

Needless to say, that’s a lot of information to process. Unfortunately none of it can be verified and it essentially falls under the category of rumor and as such must be treated as suspect.


Homeland Security Contracts for Vast New Detention Camps

by Michel Chossudovsky, February 6, 2006
 
I saw that article at the time, the third link you posted.

Of course, posting articles like that on FYM is what gets you labelled a 'conspiracy theorist'.
 
If anyone couldn't see the financial crisis looming in the near future earlier this year, than he or she has been living under a rock. There's nothing sinister going on. We had a President who did not know how to manage the economy, along with corrupt CEOs and financial institutions who were more interested in padding their Swiss bank accounts than being honest and fair to the American people. Paranoid bloggers can ramble all they want about secret government plots that sound like another bad Matrix sequel, but financial experts predicted this for a couple years now.
 
Haha, gotta love labels. I prefer devil's advocate :)

I wasn't addressing you, with the "paranoid" comment.:) It was directed towards the random bloggers who come up with these ridiculous ideas. I think the Internet and blogging, in particular, is a double-edged sward. It allows the flow of thoughts and ideas in a manner we haven't seen before, but it also allows anyone, regardless of how little they know about a subject at hand, to ramble about it incessantly.
 
If anyone couldn't see the financial crisis looming in the near future earlier this year, than he or she has been living under a rock. There's nothing sinister going on. We had a President who did not know how to manage the economy, along with corrupt CEOs and financial institutions who were more interested in padding their Swiss bank accounts than being honest and fair to the American people.

Er, what?? That IS sinister. If that isn't sinister, then what the fuck is?


Paranoid bloggers can ramble all they want about secret government plots that sound like another bad Matrix sequel, but financial experts predicted this for a couple years now.

'Financial experts' - which financial experts? Not the ones on Fox, CNN and MSNBC, surely? Bloomberg is a bit better. At least they show a range of opinions. But, by and large, the only financial experts who predicted this were the people you label as internet weirdoes and 'paranoid bloggers'.


But anyway, with regard to predicting the financial crisis, the scores at this stage are:-

Score one to the 'paranoid bloggers'.

Score ZERO to the mainstream media.
 
I wasn't addressing you, with the "paranoid" comment.:)

Oh I know, thanks for clarifying though. My response was to financeguy's warning.

I think the Internet and blogging, in particular, is a double-edged sward. It allows the flow of thoughts and ideas in a manner we haven't seen before, but it also allows anyone, regardless of how little they know about a subject at hand, to ramble about it incessantly.

Agree 100%. I was attempting to demonstrate how paranoid themes stem from actual events to see if it would spark some debate.
 
Er, what?? That IS sinister. If that isn't sinister, then what the fuck is?




'Financial experts' - which financial experts? Not the ones on Fox, CNN and MSNBC, surely? Bloomberg is a bit better. At least they show a range of opinions. But, by and large, the only financial experts who predicted this were the people you label as internet weirdoes and 'paranoid bloggers'.


But anyway, with regard to predicting the financial crisis, the scores at this stage are:-

Score one to the 'paranoid bloggers'.

Score ZERO to the mainstream media.

I meant "sinister" in the sense of it not being some secret government plot to somehow merge with Mexico and Canada and put millions of random people in prison or beam them up to space or whatever the wack job in the blog cited earlier in this thread was talking about. There's a big difference between that and an intelligent, rational person well-versed in the economy and the financial market posting their observations about what they feel could happen. As I said, blogging can be a great tool to spread information and enjoy political discourse. However, idiots posting complete bullshit such as, "ZOMG, The government is killing everyone. This was planned!!!111 Aliens!" clearly are not financial experts or intelligent human beings by any measure.
 
I meant "sinister" in the sense of it not being some secret government plot to somehow merge with Mexico and Canada and put millions of random people in prison or beam them up to space or whatever the wack job in the blog cited earlier in this thread was talking about. There's a big difference between an intelligent, rational person well-versed in the economy and the financial market posting their observations about what they feel could happen.

Sinister secret plot or perhaps simply Plan B to deal with unavoidable, unprecedented disaster?
 
I saw that article at the time, the third link you posted.

Of course, posting articles like that on FYM is what gets you labelled a 'conspiracy theorist'.


This was sent to me last week, (Im only posting a portion of it). This comes from a woman with spiritual gifts (dreams visions).
It speaks of the collaspe of the economic system, that it will be global in nature, and many suicides by different high level financiers.

You will note a suicide story below from a prominent banker.

Message posted Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:42 pm


Over the last several days, I've been feeling so much concern as things are really cranking up. Yesterday morning I was shown a lot, and then again this morning. I feel a great urgency to share these things and get the word out quickly because I feel time is very short for final preparations. Once again I stress, these things can change due to agency... but I do feel much is inevitable. I'm still not sure of the order, but I do think it can be surmised somewhat by conditions and other clues. I will relate this exactly as it was shown to me... thanks. This was from, Sept 17th, Thursday morning.

The first thing I was shown is that the economy is hanging by a thread. Russia and China are deeply involved in the U.S. economy. We are currently in a catch 22 with China and Russia. Once our economic stability is gone there is nothing left to hold them back from declaring full blown war. Part of the catch 22 is that rumors of war (as prophesied) are affecting world markets... so either way we will have an economic crash and a war. Right now they are holding off because of their interests in the U.S. Also over and over in the last few days I've seen flashes of the "Sound Of Music"... We are in the same situation... living our normal lives as the evils around us are getting greater and greater even life threatening. We have no idea just how great the threat is right now.

Many times one of the first things I see is the earth covered in a very brownish black haze. This is the evil surrounding the earth and it is so great right now.


Economic Collapse

Next it was as if I was at the NYSE I saw two men in a tug of war over money. Then others joined in from all sides and they all started pulling. The money was stretching more and more and getting thinner and thinner. Finally one man broke away with a small piece in his hands. Then the gov. poured more into the center of the fray. It only made the money weaker and more brittle and thinned it out. Then the stretched out money tore right down the middle, and finally exploded. Everyone landed on their backs and their hands were empty, they stood up, brushed themselves off and looked around, all the money gone.

Then again I saw the house of cards, it had fallen and the cards were laying everywhere in disarray on the NYSE floor. Next I witnessed suicides all over. There was mass chaos and the public demanding a solution. Our nation was broke and the situation cascaded all over the world from here. The repercussions were worldwide.

Next I saw the military trying to bring order. I saw the president's face, he had his hands.....



Here's the story:

Credit crunch banker leaps to his death in front of express train
By Christopher Leake
Last updated at 11:06 PM on 27th September 2008

Comments (13) Add to My Stories
Tragedy: Kirk Stephenson took his own life despite a successful 20-year City career, vibrant social life and a loving family
The City was in shock last night after the apparent suicide of a millionaire financier haunted by the pressures of dealing with the credit crunch.
Kirk Stephenson, who was married with an eight-year-old son, died in the path of a 100mph express train at Taplow railway station, Berkshire.
Mr Stephenson is believed to have taken his own life after succumbing to mounting personal pressures as the world’s financial markets went into meltdown.
The death of the respected 47-year-old City figure evokes memories of the 1929 Wall Street crash in America and comes as:• Bradford & Bingley teeters on the brink of nationalisation after a dramatic share price slump.
• David Cameron faced embarrassment on the eve of the Tory conference after members of a secretive club of Conservative donors were linked to the ‘short-selling’ of Bradford & Bingley.
• Gordon Brown was wrongfooted by Shadow Chancellor George Osborne, who announced plans to set up an independent watchdog to police the Treasury and strip it of key powers if the Conservatives win the next Election.
New Zealand-born Mr Stephenson, who owned a £3.6million, five-storey house in Chelsea and a retreat in the West Country, was chief operating officer of Olivant Advisers.
Last year, the private equity firm tried to buy a 15 per cent stake worth almost £1billion in Northern Rock before the bank was nationalised, bidding against Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson.



In June, the company secured a 2.5 per cent stake in Swiss banking giant UBS. There has been persistent speculation in the financial world that UBS has written off billions after being exposed to the US mortgage market.
Since June, the bank has dropped in value by about 20 per cent, which means the value of Olivant’s stake in UBS has fallen from £950million to £770million.
Before his death at 9am on Thursday, Mr Stephenson appeared to have everything to live for.

A glittering 20-year City career had made him a hugely wealthy man and he was said to have been happy in his marriage to Karina Robinson, a successful financial writer.
Sources stressed that neither Mr Stephenson nor his company had financial problems that would have led him to take his own life.
But they said the financier had ‘succumbed’ to the stress and responsibilities of his taxing role, adding that Mr Stephenson had overreacted to the continuing financial turmoil.
Wife Karina and son Lucas, with whom Stephenson had breakfast before killing himself

After eating breakfast on Thursday with his wife and their young son Lucas, Mr Stephenson drove to Taplow station, left his car in the car park and crossed a footbridge over the main First Great Western Plymouth to Paddington line.
Out of view of passengers on the platform, he is then said by witnesses to have leapt in front of a high-speed train.
The driver sounded his horn and slammed on the brakes but was unable to stop in time. The train came to a standstill a mile down the track.
Mr Stephenson left no note, but the incident is being treated by police, train operator First Great Western and his own firm as a suicide.
In due course a coroner will examine the death and record an official verdict.
Mr Stephenson’s colleagues and family were unable to explain why had he had gone to Taplow.
Last night, his devastated widow released a statement saying: ‘Kirk was a life-enhancer – not with a showy, life-and-soul-of-the-party sort of charisma, but as a planner who quietly ensured everyone around him had a marvellous time.
‘A dedicated father and a devoted husband, he valued his family above all else.
'He had a gift for friendship and was a generous and exceptional host, gathering his wide circle in summer villas all over Europe, as well as for parties, dinners and opera.
‘Any occasion with Kirk was a wonderful experience. He spent many a fine – and less than fine – summer evening listening to opera at Garsington, Glyndebourne and The Grange with friends.
'He also loved board games and tennis, passions he shared with his treasured son, Lucas.
‘He arrived in London in 1983 as an SG Warburg trainee. After his stint in the City he went on to work at several large organisations. Latterly, he was a director for Olivant.
‘Always a keen traveller, in 1999 he married his cherished wife Karina. Together they travelled from Bhutan to Burgundy, Buenos Aires to Tripoli.
‘He will be sorely missed by his wife, his son, his mother Bet Stephenson, and his many friends.’
Until two months ago, former merchant banker Karina was a columnist on The Banker magazine.
One of her former colleagues said: ‘It is shocking news. I know Kirk had been under pressure, but I am not aware that his own money was at stake.
'He was very hard-working. He did a 24-hour-a-day job.’
A family friend added: ‘Kirk was always troubled because of his work. He was always so busy, working late and travelling a lot.
'But he didn’t seem any different on Thursday. He ate breakfast with the family, kissed them and said goodbye. No one can believe what happened.’
Mr Stephenson’s previous jobs include chief operating officer of City lawyers Freshfield Bruckhaus Deringer, group finance director of Coats Viyella and Amersham International and an investment banker at Warburg and Morgan Stanley.
At Olivant Advisers he was paid £333,000 last year, but is thought to have made millions more from the core Olivant business, based in Guernsey.
 
anyone else think if things don't settle down soon, war could be round the corner?

that's a pretty open question, but things could get a little more desperate yet.
 
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