Ireland on the brink (?) - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind
Click Here to Login
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 10-17-2008, 08:31 PM   #1
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Ireland on the brink (?)

In this thread: Iceland on the brink , we discussed the Icelandic financial and economic crisis, and I predicted that Ireland would be the next domino to fall (in Western Europe, although arguably the UK has already 'fallen' given its bailout for major banks announced by Brown and Darling recently)

In recent days and weeks, I have heard and read a number of things which give me cause for significant concern.

In the next few weeks and months, I predict the following:


(1) A change of government in Ireland, but without a general election. Possibly, a national government.

(2) Several resignations of significant public figures

(3) Government financial backing for major banks, possibly involving government taking equity stakes (as has already happened in the UK and US)


This is all speculation at this juncture, but unfortunately I am usually right about this kind of thing.

If I am correct, then at a macro level, this will have happened largely because of the Greenspan-era liquidity splurge.

As Peter Thiel of Clarium Capital put it back in '06:

Quote:
We are living in a world distorted by the biggest financial bubble ever seen.....there has to be a deleveraging of the world's financial system.
__________________

__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2009, 07:14 PM   #2
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Ireland is fecked, the bad debts of one bad bank are easily in and of themselves enough to cause a default on the country's sovereign debt, never mind our spiralling unemployment rate and collapsing tax take.


Government to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank | Ireland.com


Anglo Irish Bank nationalised | Business | guardian.co.uk
__________________

__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2009, 07:18 PM   #3
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 16,297
Local Time: 08:07 PM
How has your real estate market been the last 6-12 months?
__________________
anitram is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2009, 07:25 PM   #4
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
How has your real estate market been the last 6-12 months?
Down 18% last year

Business World, live news from Ireland, plus Irish archive, lists, companies information

but this probably underestimates the decline because for some areas there is no market. Nothing is selling. Level of transactions is probably down 80% from peak.

All large real estate developers are technically insolvent. I'm not aware of a single one that isn't.

The two largest banks are probably still solvent. For now.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2009, 09:49 AM   #5
Refugee
 
A stor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: U.S.A. East Coast
Posts: 2,464
Local Time: 01:07 AM
I feel for Ireland. Things are just as bad, on this side of the pond, if not worst. Lots of folks, myself included, have lost their jobs. And their homes are in foreclosure. Luckily, my house is payed for. Credit, especially for small business, is difficult to obtain.
__________________
A stor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 04:59 PM   #6
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Things are getting hairy here. A lot of careers and reputations have been ruined.

Emerging from the meeting, shaking and tearful, the widow was as confused as when she arrived - Financial crisis - Independent.ie

Quote:
By Carissa Casey


Saturday January 17 2009

"Fellow shareholders, in case you didn't know, the patient is dead. Twas announced last night by the minister," began Donal O'Callaghan, just one of the many hundreds of Anglo Irish shareholders crammed into the Mansion House in Dublin yesterday.

"This is the wake. Now the reading of the will comes later when the assessor announces how much we will get."

They came armed with umbrellas and woolly scarves, newspapers tucked securely underarm, shocked, confused or downright angry, sometimes all three.
Quote:
"I'm a pensioner. I have a son on disability. There was a fund set up by Bloxham stockbrokers to provide me with an income. I was due to be paid a dividend at the end of January. As far as I know my shares are gone. I have a very, very small widow's pension. I couldn't possibly live on it."

She had asked three different people about her shares but no one seemed to have any answers.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 05:17 PM   #7
you are what you is
 
Salome's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 22,016
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Ireland did so well to get to where they are
but in the end it proved to be too 1 dimensional
low wages can't compete anymore with the likes of China
and being strong in the financial market ......

I wonder how the new vote on Europe will end
__________________
“Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
~Frank Zappa
Salome is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 10:25 PM   #8
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salome View Post
Ireland did so well to get to where they are
but in the end it proved to be too 1 dimensional
low wages can't compete anymore with the likes of China
and being strong in the financial market ......

I wonder how the new vote on Europe will end

I, for one, welcome our new IMF overlords.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2009, 10:42 PM   #9
ONE
love, blood, life
 
A_Wanderer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Wild West
Posts: 12,518
Local Time: 11:07 AM
Are you rounding up others to toil in the underground sugar caves?
__________________
A_Wanderer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2009, 11:00 PM   #10
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by financeguy View Post
(in Western Europe, although arguably the UK has already 'fallen' given its bailout for major banks announced by Brown and Darling recently)
The UK is fecked too.

Labour stakes its reputation on second gamble | Politics | The Guardian

Quote:
Privately, something close to desperation is starting to develop inside government. After watching the slide in bank shares on Friday, one cabinet minister did not altogether joke when he said: "The banks are fucked, we're fucked, the country's fucked."

Speaking at a Fabian Society gathering at the weekend, Lord Mandelson was typically and disarmingly frank. "I'm not going to say to you I think we've now at least reached a set of measures and actions that almost for sure are going to work."

RBS suffers biggest loss in UK history - Telegraph



One of the major UK banks lent £2.5b to a Russian oligarch.

I think that tells us everything we need to know about their risk management.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2009, 07:44 AM   #11
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
vaz02's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: manchester
Posts: 7,447
Local Time: 01:07 AM
Are we heading for Barter Britain ?
__________________
vaz02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2009, 08:18 AM   #12
Rock n' Roll Doggie
FOB
 
Kieran McConville's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Auto Dafoe
Posts: 9,600
Local Time: 11:07 AM
Quote:
one cabinet minister did not altogether joke when he said: "The banks are fucked, we're fucked, the country's fucked."
And there you have a slogan that any party would be happy to take to the next election.
__________________
Kieran McConville is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2009, 08:52 AM   #13
Rock n' Roll Doggie
ALL ACCESS
 
vaz02's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: manchester
Posts: 7,447
Local Time: 01:07 AM
I cant wait to return to Tory boom and boost
__________________
vaz02 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2009, 06:15 PM   #14
ONE
love, blood, life
 
financeguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Ireland
Posts: 10,122
Local Time: 02:07 AM
I don't know what is going to happen.
__________________
financeguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2009, 06:20 PM   #15
pgv
ONE
love, blood, life
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,979
Local Time: 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vaz02 View Post
I cant wait to return to Tory boom and boost
Don't you even joke about us having a Tory anything ...
__________________

__________________
pgv is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:07 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com